The round of 16 concludes on Monday in New York.
Six years ago, then-defending champion Naomi Osaka and a then-15-year-old Coco Gauff played in the third round of this same event, and shared a touching and emotional moment after the match. Six years later, Naomi and Coco are different players and people, as they now meet again in New York. Which player will prevail on Monday.
Day 9 also sees Iga Swiatek go up againsta player who has beaten her twice before: Ekaterina Alexandrova. Similarly, World No.1 Jannik Sinner faces a player who has beaten him two of the last three times they’ve played: Alexander Bublik. And the ATP’s other top redhead, Andrey Rublev, takes on a red-hot Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s four most prominent matches, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule. Monday’s play gets underway at 11:00am local time.
Felix Auger-Aliassime (25) vs. Andrey Rublev (15) – 11:30am on Arthur Ashe Stadium
The average ranking of the three players Rublev defeated during the first week is No.137. On Saturday, Andrey outlasted qualifier Coleman Wong in five sets, bringing his 2025 record to a modest 32-19. But as always, it’s his 0-10 record in Major quarterfinals that looms most largely. And since losing his 10th such quarterfinal at the 2024 Australian Open, he’s stalled three times in the round of 16 at Slams.
By ranking, Auger-Aliassime pulled off the biggest win of his career in the last round, playing some scintillating tennis to oust third-seeded Alexander Zverev in four sets. In that match, Felix won 78% of his first serve points, and struck 50 winners compared to only 35 unforced errors, dictating play against Sascha. Now the Canadian vies for his first Major quarterfinal in nearly four years.
Their head-to-head has been extremely one-sided, with Rublev leading 7-1, and having taken their last five encounters. Auger-Aliassime’s only victory came in early-2022 on an indoor hard court. But Felix had a similar record against Zverev ahead of their third round contest, so can he overcome a bad head-to-head for a second round in a row? Based on the level he displayed on Saturday, and based on Auger-Aliassime being healthier than he’s been in years, I give him the slight edge over the eternally-frustrated Rublev.
Ekaterina Alexandrova (13) vs. Iga Swiatek (2) – Not Before 1:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
Alexandrova’s two victories over Swiatek have both come on hard courts: back in 2021 in Australia, and just last year in Miami. Her penetrating, flat groundstrokes have bothered Iga in those matches. But the second seed owns four victories of her own over Ekaterina, and those victories have taken place on all three surfaces.
Since the start of Wimbledon, Swiatek is now 17-1, and claimed her first-ever titles at both Wimbledon and Cincinnati. She suffered a bit of a hiccup in the second set of her second her round this past week, and also fell behind 5-1 in the first set of her third round match. So while Iga keeps winning, she has looked vulnerable.
This is a fourth time for Alexandrova in the round of 16 at a Slam, but she’s yet to advance farther, so a win on Monday would unquestionably be the biggest of her career. Ekaterina is a strong 38-18 on the season, but while she has prior success against Iga, defeating her on this stage is a wholly different situation. Swiatek is the favorite to reach the quarterfinals.
Naomi Osaka (23) vs. Coco Gauff (3) – Second on Arthur Ashe Stadium
Since their first meeting six years ago at this same event, which Osaka easily won 6-3, 6-0, Gauff has defeated Osaka three out of four times. This will be their first match in nearly a year, since Coco prevailed last September in Beijing, though Naomi retired from that match after they split the first two sets.
But Osaka comes into September of 2025 playing her best tennis in years, following her run to the final in Montreal. Her form dipped a bit during the second set on Saturday against Daria Kasatkina, yet she remained mostly composed, and recovered nicely to win in three. Now Naomi looks to achieve her first Major quarterfinal since January of 2021, and all four times she’s reached the quarterfinal at a Slam, she’s won the title.
Gauff arrived in New York severely lacking in confidence. Despite winning Roland Garros just a few months ago, her chronic double faulting and forehand errors have reemerged. She’s been working with a new biomechanical coach as she tries to retool her shots as this tournament unfolds, which is not an easy feat. Coco was extremely frustrated and emotional during her first two rounds, even suffering a panic attack on-court, but appeared much more comfortable during a 6-3, 6-1 win on Saturday over Magdalena Frech.
This should be a fascinating round of 16 battle, between a former Major champion yearning to reclaim the glory of yesteryear, and a reigning Major champion experiencing a very public and self-conscious struggle. In a tough match to call, it feels as of Osaka may finally be ready to earn the best win of her comeback, two years after returning from child birth. And it feels as if Gauff is not confident enough in her strokes to win this big matchup. But we also saw Naomi emotionally crumble in the Montreal final against a younger adversary in Victoria Mboko, so an Osaka victory is far from a sure thing.
Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Alexander Bublik (23) – Not Before 7:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
Much like the Swiatek/Alexandrova head-to-head, Sinner leads this one 4-2. But Bublik has shown he’s fully capable of competing with the World No.1. Sascha’s victories over Jannik both took place on the grass of Halle: the first came two years ago via retirement, but the second one came this year in their most recent meeting, with Bublik prevailing 6-4 in the third.
Sascha is currently on the best run of his career. Since mid-May, the 28-year-old is 25-3 at all levels, with four titles: a Challenger event in Turin, plus ATP titles in Halle, Gstaad, and Kitzbuhel. On Saturday night, he eliminated Tommy Paul in five sets. Bublik is the only man remaining to have not lost his serve through three rounds, as he’s been serving excellently across the past few months.
As ESPN’s Cliff Drysdale described this past week, Bublik’s mix of power and unpredictability make him one the most dangerous threats to the steady predictability of Sinner, who does not enjoy having his rhythm disrupted by the likes of Bublik. But as Sascha himself mentioned after his win on Saturday, he’s yet to prove he can maintain the necessary level to beat Jannik in the best-of-five format. And a few months ago at Roland Garros, Sinner defeated Bublik in straights. At a hard court Major, where the Italian has been so dominant, Jannik remains a considerable favorite.
Other Notable Matches on Monday:
Leandro Riedi (Q) vs. Alex de Minaur (8) – De MInaur is vying for his fifth quarterfinal out of the last seven Majors. Riedi is a 23-year-old Swiss qualifier who came back from two-sets-down to upset Francisco Cerundolo in the second round, then benefitted from Kamil Majchrzak retiring on Saturday after just eight games.
Marta Kostyuk (27) vs. Karolina Muchova (11) – Muchova is two rounds away from achieving her third consecutive semifinal in New York, but she’s already had to play a trio of three-setters just to make the fourth round. Kostyuk’s only Major quarterfinal to date came last year in Melbourne. This is their first career meeting.
Lorenzo Musetti (10) vs. Jaume Munar – Musetti defeated an injured fellow Italian, Flavio Cobolli, in the last round. Munar has lost only one set through three rounds, to achieve his best result at a Slam. And Munar is 4-1 against Musetti at all levels, with Lorenzo’s only victory coming on grass.
Amanda Anisimova (8) vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia (18) – This is the first time Anisimova has reached the fourth round of her home Slam, while Haddad Maia was a quarterfinalist here just a year ago. Amanda has taken two of their three encounters, though they haven’t played in nearly three years.
Monday’s full Order of Play is here.
