Third round singles action concludes on Saturday in New York.
It was only a few years ago when Canada’s Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime were expected by many to be future Major champions. They are only slightly older than Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, yet the Canadians have been surpassed by “Sincaraz,” with their chances of Grand Slam glory now seeming slim. But on Saturday, Denis and Felix have a chance to prove they still belong in that conversation. Shapovalov plays Sinner, while Auger-Aliassime plays World No.3 Sascha Zverev.
Day 7 opens with a battle between two young Italians, as Lorenzo Musetti goes up against Flavio Cobolli. Later in the day, a red-hot Naomi Osaka take on Daria Kasatkina. Plus, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff both face seeded opposition.
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s four most prominent matches, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule. Saturday’s play gets underway at 11:00am local time.
Lorenzo Musetti (10) vs. Flavio Cobolli (24) – 11:00am on Louis Armstrong Stadium
In a rarity, these two 23-year-olds actually practiced together on Friday ahead of facing each other. But that is not terribly surprising considering they grew up together, playing many of the same events in Italy. This will be their first meeting at tour level.
Musetti was the one who broke through at an earlier age, as this is his 19th consecutive Major appearance. And since last summer, he’s achieved some great success: two Major semifinals, a Masters 1000 final, and an Olympic bronze medal. However, injuries have impacted his play of late, and he arrived in New York having lost five of his last six matches.
This is only Cobolli’s ninth Major appearance, and he had never advanced beyond the first week at this level until last month, when he became a Wimbledon quarterfinalist. 2024 was his true breakout season, when he cut his ranking from No.100 to No.32. Flavio has already survived a pair of five-setters to this stage, requiring a final-set tiebreak to overcome 24th-seeded Jenson Brooksby in the last round.
On Saturday, I give the slight edge to Cobolli. He’s been the more in-form player this summer, and Musetti has never played well during the North American hard court swing. Flavio’s formidable forehand and speedy movement are better matches for this surface, while Musetti’s stylistic variety is better rewarded by clay or grass.
Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Denis Shapovalov (27) – Second on Arthur Ashe Stadium
24-year-old Sinner has already become the best Italian male singles player of all-time, and on Thursday earned his 43rd win out of his last 45 hard court matches. Jannik has fully recovered from the illness that forced him to retire in the Cincinnati final against Carlos Alcaraz. He now eyes his 10th consecutive appearance in the second week of a Slam.
Shapovalov hasn’t reached the second week of a Slam in over two years, and hasn’t reached a Slam quarterfinal in nearly four. He missed about half of the 2023 season due to a knee injury, and is yet to regain his prior form. But he is coming off a title run last month in Los Cabos, though he did not have to beat a top 75 player to take that title. Denis did however defeat three top 10 opponents earlier this year in Dallas, where he also was the champion.
Their only prior encounter occurred at the 2021 Australian Open, and saw Shapovalov prevail in five sets. Yet it’s worth noting Sinner at the time was still ranked outside the world’s top 30. Nearly five years later, these two combatants are in very different places, and Jannik is the clear favorite to avenge that loss.
Daria Kasatkina (15) vs. Naomi Osaka (23) – Second on Louis Armstrong Stadium
Kasatkina barely escaped the second round, needing to come from behind in the third set to overcome Kamilla Rakhimova. And 2025 has not been a strong year for Daria, as she’s just 19-19. She’s twice advanced to the fourth round in New York, yet never gone farther.
On Thursday, Osaka looked much like the player who won four hard court Majors, comfortably defeating Hailey Baptiste 6-3, 6-1. And that’s following two extended battles with Baptiste earlier this season. Naomi hasn’t visited the second week of a Slam in almost five years, but a win on Saturday would change that.
In two previous matches against Kasatkina, Osaka has won via the same score line: 6-3, 6-2. On this surface, a confident Naomi is again a big favorite, as she should be able to easily overpower Daria, and thump Kasatkina’s weak second serve. And if she does prevail, Osaka may see Coco Gauff in the next round.
Alexander Zverev (3) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime (25) – 7:00pm on Louis Armstrong Stadium
Zverev has not lost a set through two rounds, and he’s been gradually building in momentum this summer, with semifinal appearances in both Toronto and Cincy. The German is now 45-16 on the year, and 28-9 at the US Open, having reached the quarterfinals or better in each of his last four appearances.
Much like his friend Shapovalov, Auger-Aliassime’s has been hampered by injury in recent times, including back and toe issues within the last few months alone. And also like Denis, he hasn’t advanced to a Major quarterfinal since 2022. Felix is 31-19 this season, and like Sascha, has won all six sets he’s contested this past week.
Zverev leads their head-to-head 6-2, though their only match at a Slam went to the Canadian. In the round of 16 four years ago at Wimbledon, Felix won a four-hour five-setter, which was a huge milestone for him: a first Major quarterfinal. But based on recent form, as well as the rest of their shared history, Zverev should be favored.
Other Notable Matches on Saturday:
Magdalena Frech (28) vs. Coco Gauff (3) – Gauff has emotionally struggled her way through two rounds, as she attempts to make adjustments to her serving mechanics as the tournament progresses. Frech has only once reached the round of 16 at a Major, and she’s 0-2 against Gauff, having been soundly defeated by Coco two different times last year.
Coleman Wong (Q) vs. Andrey Rublev (15) – Coleman is the first man from Hong Kong to ever win a match at a Major, and he’s now into the third round. And as per Tennis Abstract, the 21-year-old is 1-0 against top 20 opponents such as Rublev, as Wong upset Ben Shelton earlier this season in Miami.
Anna Kalinskaya (29) vs. Iga Swiatek (2) – Swiatek survived a bit of a wobble in the last round, eventually defeating Suzan Lamens in three. Iga has split two prior encounters with Kalinskaya, but she took their most recent meeting, just a few weeks ago in Cincinnati.
Alexander Bublik (23) vs. Tommy Paul (14) – Paul survived a grueling five-setter that started on Thursday evening and ended at almost 2:00am local time on Friday. Bublik is yet to drop a set, as he looks to reach the second week of the US Open for the first time. Tommy leads their tour-level head-to-head 3-0.
Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.
