Cincinnati Daily Preview: Sabalenka and Rybakina Square Off in the Quarterfinals - UBITENNIS

Cincinnati Daily Preview: Sabalenka and Rybakina Square Off in the Quarterfinals

By Matthew Marolf
6 Min Read
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Friday features quarterfinal play in both men’s and women’s singles.

We will be treated to some blockbuster quarterfinals on Friday, with four matches between top 10 seeds.  On the WTA side, Aryna Sabalenka faces Elena Rybakina in a battle between two Major champions, and a rematch from a Major final.  And reigning Roland Garros champ Coco Gauff takes on two-time Major singles runner-up Jasmine Paolini.

On the ATP side, three-time Major runner-up Alexander Zverev plays recent Toronto champ Ben Shelton.  And Roland Garros champ Carlos Alcaraz goes up against two-time Masters champ Andrey Rublev.

Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s two most prominent matches, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule.  Friday’s play gets underway at 11:00am local time.


Aryna Sabalenka (1) vs. Elena Rybakina (9) – Second on Center Court

These are two of the WTA’s biggest ball strikers, and they’ve contested some extremely dramatic contests within the recent past.  They’ve met 11 times, with Sabalenka leading their head-to-head 7-4.  Eight of their 11 matches have gone to a third set, including most recently on the grass of Berlin, where Aryna saved four match points to eventually win in a final-set tiebreak.  Of course their most noteworthy match was the final of the 2023 Australian Open, when Sabalenka prevailed 6-4 in the third.  But on hard courts, they are tied are 4-4.

Sabalenka now owns 50 wins this season, with just nine losses.  She’s reached seven finals during 2025, winning three of them.  However, she’s experienced three devastating losses at Majors: to Keys in Melbourne, to Gauff in Paris, and to Anisimova in London.  Earlier this week, she outlasted Emma Raducanu in an over three-hour three-setter, decided by a final-set tiebreak.

Rybakina earned her 40th win of the season in the last round, beating Keys 6-2 in the third.  She’s vying for her second consecutive WTA 1000 semifinal, after losing a heartbreaker in Canada to Victoria Mboko.  Elena is one of the only players who can match Aryna’s power, but considering their history, I give the slight edge to Sabalenka on Friday.


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Ben Shelton (5) vs. Sascha Zverev (3) – Not Before 7:00pm on Center Court

Zverev is 42-15 on the year, and hasn’t dropped a set through three matches in Cincinnati, though he received a mid-match walkover in the last round from Karen Khachanov, who recently defeated him in the Toronto semifinals.  But since losing his third Major final this past January in Australia, Sascha has struggled at big events.  He suffered a first round exit at Wimbledon, and has lost before the quarterfinals at four Masters 1000 tournaments.

Shelton is currently on a nine-match win streak, and is also yet to lose a set in Cincy.  On Thursday, he beat Jiri Lehecka 6-4, 6-4.  However, success at Masters events had eluded him until recently, with only three quarterfinal appearances prior to last week in Toronto. 

All three matches between Zverev and Shelton have gone to the German.  They’ve all taken place within the past year, starting with a meeting in the same round of this same event a year ago, when Sascha won 7-5 in the third.  Then on clay in the final of Munich, Zverev won in straights, as he did two months ago on grass in Stuttgart.  But Ben has been the better player of late, taking 16 of his last 18 matches.  And a fast-playing hard court on American soil should propel Shelton’s chances.  Yet until the American finds a way to turn this rivalry around, Zverev should be considered the favorite.


Other Notable Matches on Friday:

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Iga Swiatek (3) vs. Anna Kalinskaya (28) – Swiatek ousted Sirana Cirstea in straights in the last round, as she now vies for her third consecutive Cincinnati semifinal.  Kalinskaya has already eliminated two seeded players (Anisimova, Alexandrova).  In their only previous meeting, Anna defeated Iga 6-4, 6-4, last year in Dubai.

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Andrey Rublev (9) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (2) – Alcaraz has improved his form with each match this past week.  Rublev survived a three-and-a-half marathon in the heat on Tuesday against Alexei Popyrin, and came back the next day to easily prevail over Francisco Comesana.  Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 3-1, which includes a four-set victory last month at Wimbledon.

Varvara Gracheva (Q) vs. Veronika Kudermetova – Kudermetova has dropped only one set through four rounds, and has overcome three consecutive seeds (Bencic, Tauson, Linette).  Gracheva has survived a trio of three-setters, to achieve her best-ever result at a WTA 1000 event.  Kudermetova is 2-0 against Gracheva, with both wins coming on hard courts.

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Jasmine Paolini (7) vs. Coco Gauff (2) – Gauff has easily advanced to this stage, with two straight-set victories, plus a walkover.  Paolini is also yet to drop a set.  They have split four prior encounters, with Jasmine claiming the last two, but with Coco claiming their two matches on this surface.


Friday’s full Order of Play is here.

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