Wednesday features the completion of third round singles action, as well as the majority of fourth round matches in the men’s singles draw.
This is a rare event where the men’s singles draw proceeds a day ahead of women’s singles. Due to rain, a few matches have been carried over from Tuesday, meaning the winner of Alexander Zverev vs. Brandon Nakashima will come back later in the day and play a second match against Karen Khachanov. And one men’s singles fourth round contest has been postponed until Thursday.
The day’s schedule is highlighted by two meetings between top 10 seeds. Reigning Australian Open champ Madison Keys faces 2022 Wimbledon champ Elena Rybakina, while Frances Tiafoe takes on Holger Rune in a rematch from a dramatic semifinal a year ago. Plus, Iga Swiatek, Carlos Alcaraz, and Jannik Sinner are all in action on a busy Wednesday.
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s two most prominent matches, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule. Wednesday’s play gets underway at 11:00am local time.
Frances Tiafoe (10) vs. Holger Rune (7) – 11:00am on Center Court
52 weeks ago at this same event, Tiafoe came from a set down to prevail over Rune in a final-set tiebreak, with the American saving two match points in the process. On one of those match points, a Frances forehand just barely dribbled over the net to keep his tournament alive. That remains their only career meeting, until now.
Frances would go on to lose last year’s final to Jannik Sinner, then reach the semifinals of the US Open. But after blowing a two-sets-to-one lead against Taylor Fritz in that semi, he has not been the same player. Tiafoe is a modest 24-17 this season, and a loss on Wednesday would drop him out of the world’s top 16, significantly impacting his seeding at the upcoming US Open.
But Rune has also struggled during 2025, with a nearly identical record of 26-15, though it’s worth noting he’s been battling illness and injury as well. Holger did advance to the final of Indian Wells back in March, losing to Jack Draper, yet has failed to advance beyond this round of a Masters or Major ever since.
The biggest difference in last year’s semifinal between these two was second serve percentage: Tiafoe won 61% of such points, while Rune won just 46%. Both men won their first two rounds in straights, so they should be fully fresh for this rematch. On American soil, and at a tournament where Frances has nice memories from a year ago, I give the slight edge to Tiafoe, especially on a fast-playing hard court.
Elena Rybakina (9) vs. Madison Keys (5) – Fourth on Grandstand
Keys leads their head-to-head 3-2, and claimed their only meeting this season, which was a tight three-setter in this same round of January’s Australian Open. As you would imagine, serving statistics told the difference between these two power players. Keys was able to get her first serve in 15% more, and able to win 14% more of second serve points.
Madison has been a different player in 2025: changes to her equipment boosted her confidence, and she’s never struck her aggressive return more consistently. She’s 37-11 on the year, and a win on Wednesday would return her to the world’s top five. And this has been the winningest WTA 1000 tournament of her career, where she won the title back in 2019.
Rybakina is a strong 39-15 this season, but it’s also a season that has been filled with close losses in big matches. In addition to the loss to Keys in Melbourne, she narrowly lost to Iga Swiatek at Roland Garros, and just last week in Montreal, lost in the semifinals to Victoria Mboko, in a match decided by a final-set tiebreak. And unlike Madison, Cincinnati hasn’t been very kind to Elena, where she is just 9-5 lifetime.
In addition, Rybakina was pushed to 7-5 in the third in both of her first two matches here, so all evidence supports another Keys victory on Wednesday.
Other Notable Matches on Wednesday:
Iga Swiatek (3) vs. Sorana Cirstea – Swiatek received a walkover in the last round from Marta Kostyuk due to injury. She is 4-0 against Cirstea, and has taken the last eight sets they’ve contested.
Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Adrian Mannarino (Q) – Sinner won his opening round against Gabriel Diallo in straights, but wasn’t satisfied with his form, so he immediately proceeded to the practice courts thereafter. He is 3-0 against Mannarino, with all three victories coming on hard courts.
Luca Nardi (LL) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (2) – Alcaraz prevailed in straight sets on Tuesday over Hamad Medjedovic. Earlier this season in Doha, Nardi was able to push Alcaraz to three sets, in their only prior encounter.
Wednesday’s full Order of Play is here.
