Sunday features the championship matches in both gentlemen’s singles and ladies’ doubles.
The rematch the tennis world has been yearning for takes place on Sunday at The Championships. Just five weeks after competing in one of the greatest matches of all-time, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz collide in another Major final. In Paris, Alcaraz saved championship points and eventually prevailed in a fifth-set tiebreak, after over five-and-a-half hours of play. Who will prevail in the highly-anticipated rematch?
Day 14 of The Championships also hosts the ladies’ doubles final, at 1:00pm local time on Centre Court. It will be Su-wei Hsieh and Jelena Ostapenko (4) vs. Veronika Kudermetova and Elise Mertens (8). This is a sixth Wimbledon final for Su-wei between mixed and ladies’ doubles, and she’s 5-0 in her previous finals at SW19. Ostapenko was the girls’ singles champion at Wimbledon back in 2014, and now vies for her second Major doubles title, after winning last summer’s US Open alongside Lyudmyla Kichenok. Su-wei and Ostapenko defeated the defending champions, Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend, in the semifinals.
This is a second championship match at a Slam for Kudermetova, who lost an extended final here four years ago to Su-wei and Mertens, who previously teamed up to win two Majors. Overall Mertens is a four-time Major champ in women’s doubles, and she’s now reached the final at The All-England Club in four of the last five years. Kudermetova and Mertens upset the second seeds, Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe, in the quarterfinals.
These teams played two months ago in Rome, where Kudermetova and Mertens won in straight sets. However, a grass court would seem to favor the flatter hitting of Su-wei and Ostapenko.
Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (2) – Not Before 4:00pm on Centre Court
This has quickly become the definitive rivalry of the new generation. Sinner and Alcaraz have clearly separated themselves from the rest of the field, combining to win the last seven Majors. And like the great rivalries of this sport that proceeded them, these two players bring the best out of each other, forcing the other to elevate their game to new levels.
They have already produced a few exceedingly memorable matches of incredible quality. Three years ago in a US Open quarterfinal that lasted over five hours, and ended at nearly 3:00am, Alcaraz outlasted Sinner 6-3 in the fifth after saving a match point late in the fourth. Two years later in the Roland Garros semifinals, Carlitos again came back from two-sets-to-one down to prevail in five.
Just a few months later in the final of Beijing, it was Alcaraz yet again coming from behind to win, this time in a final-set tiebreak. And of course, just five Sundays ago in the championship match of Roland Garros, Carlitos saved multiple championship points from two-sets-down, before playing a nearly-perfect fifth-set tiebreak to win his fifth Major.
There is an obvious pattern in this rivalry: Sinner gets out to an early lead, but is unable to close out the match, with Alcaraz winning the crucial points. Losing so many close matches to Carlitos must be weighing heavily on the mind of Jannik. Overall the Spaniard leads their tour-level head-to-head 8-4, and has now claimed their last five meetings. At Majors, Alcaraz leads 3-1, and has claimed their last three meetings, all in five sets as just outlined.
But Sinner continually bounces back quickly from these painful losses, just as he returned to the tour this May following his three-month suspension without even a slight drop in form. The Italian is 25-3 on the year, with two of those losses coming against Alcaraz. During this fortnight, he easily won five of his matches in straight sets, with the glaring exception of his fourth round encounter against Grigor Dimitrov, where he was down two-sets-to-love before Dimitrov was forced to retire due to a pectoral injury. During that match, Sinner suffered an injury of his own, to his right elbow, though it has not appeared to impact his play in the last two rounds.
This is a fifth Major final for Jannik: he’s 3-1 in this round of Slams, and 19-7 in ATP finals overall. The 23-year-old has won his last nine finals to people not named Carlos Alcaraz. And against people not named Alcaraz during this tournament, Sinner has only been broken four times, striking 54 aces and just 11 double faults.
As has become habitual for Carlitos, he’s played some loose tennis on his way to this final. The 22-year-old has relinquished five sets through six rounds, and been broken 11 times. Yet as he’s continually done against Sinner, Alcaraz ups his level when it matters most. He is 48-5 this season, and is currently on a 24-match winning streak, the longest of his career. And the two-time defending champion has now won 20 consecutive matches at The Championships.
Just like Swiatek a day prior, Alcaraz comes into this championship match with a perfect record of 5-0 in Major finals. At Masters level, he’s 6-1 in finals, and is 21-6 in finals at tour level. Carlitos’ excellence on the sport’s biggest stages is unmatched, perhaps most evident by his career record of 14-1 in five-setters. He’s won his last 11 matches that have gone the distance at Majors, with his only loss coming three-and-half years ago in Melbourne at the hands of Matteo Berrettini. By contrast, Sinner is just 6-10 in five-setters, and has lost six of his last seven. So if these two players again go to a fifth set on Sunday, that would significantly favor Alcaraz.
Carlitos’ edge in explosivity and speed has proven to be more crucial in this rivalry than Jannik’s consistency, though the differences there are rather subtle. The biggest difference can be summed up in one word: belief. Alcaraz believes he can mount a comeback and win the most critical points against Sinner, even when he is down match points or championship points. His ability to do so back in their 2022 US Open quarterfinal has provided him with the confidence that he can repeatedly do so, which he has. Overcoming Carlitos’ winning streaks (in general, at this event, and in this rivalry) is a huge ask of Jannik, especially not far removed from such a heartbreaking loss in Paris.
However, Sinner can find solace in knowing he was only one point away from defeating Alcaraz on arguably Sinner’s weakest surface, and in just his second tournament after three months of inactivity. And I dare say Jannik will be the hungrier player on this day, eager to achieve redemption, and to prevent this from evolving into a somewhat one-sided rivalry. Despite how close their matches have been, Sinner hasn’t beaten Alcaraz in nearly two years, and hasn’t done so at a Major in three years, in their only prior meeting at this tournament.
It may not be fully accurate to refer to the World No.1 defeating the World No.2 as an upset. But given their history, that result would feel like an upset, and that is the result I am expecting. I favor Jannik Sinner to upset Carlos Alcaraz on Sunday, and to change the dynamic of this rivalry. Sinner feels due for a win, and Alcaraz feels due for a loss, especially considering his vulnerable play during many matches this season. Plus, outside of the Dimitrov match, Jannik has been the better player during this fortnight.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.
