Thursday features the last two men’s singles quarterfinals, as well as both women’s singles semifinals.
Thus far, Jannik Sinner has experienced a successful return from his three-month doping suspension, as he’s yet to drop a set through three rounds at his home country’s biggest event. But on Thursday, he faces a tough quarterfinal test in Madrid champion Casper Ruud, who is on a nine-match winning streak. The other ATP singles quarterfinal on Thursday sees Tommy Paul play Hubert Hurkacz.
Meanwhile, the WTA will stage both women’s singles semifinals on Thursday. Italian No.1 Jasmine Paolini takes on the surprise of this fortnight Peyton Stearns, who as per OptaAce, is the first WTA player in the Open Era to win three consecutive matches via a third-set tiebreak. The other semifinal also features an American, as Coco Gauff faces Qinwen Zheng, who upset top-seeded Aryna Sabalenka on Wednesday evening.
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s two most prominent matches, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule. Thursday’s play begins at 1:00pm local time.
Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Casper Ruud (6) – Not Before 7:00pm on Campo Centrale
Sinner is a perfect 10-0 this season, and even though this is only his second tournament of 2025, he sits in fourth place in the Race to Turin rankings. This quarterfinal appearance equals the 23-year-old Italian’s best result in Rome to date, though he missed this tournament a year ago due to injury. Jannik is 10-4 in Masters 1000 quarterfinals, and has won nine of his last 10.
Ruud is 24-6 on the year, and 12-2 on clay. During his Madrid title run two weeks ago, he defeated three top 10 seeds (Fritz, Medvedev, Draper). Here in Rome, he survived an opening round three-setter against Alexander Bublik, then benefitted from a mid-match retirement by Matteo Berrettini, before beat Jaume Munar in straights. Casper is a three-time semifinalist at this event, and while he’s never advanced farther, he’s 3-0 in Rome quarterfinals.
Sinner is also a perfect 3-0 against Ruud, and has claimed all six sets they’ve contested. However, those matches all took place on indoor hard courts. A clay court should certainly better suit Casper, who excels on this surface. By contrast, only one of Jannik’s 19 career titles have come on this surface, and that occurred almost three years ago at a 250-level event.
Despite that, and despite his lack of match play, I still like Sinner’s chances of advancing. His form has looked pretty sharp this past week, and he’s easily the better big match player. But this match will provide strong evidence as to how much the three-month layoff has impacted the World No.1.
Qinwen Zheng (8) vs. Coco Gauff (4) – Not Before 8:30pm on Campo Centrale
This is a third Rome semifinal for Gauff, as she vies to reach her first final here, and her second consecutive WTA 1000 final. After losing her first set played this fortnight, she’s won eight in a row, including taking two tight sets on Wednesday from Mirra Andreeva. Coco is now 23-7 this season, and 10-2 on clay.
On Wednesday, Qinwen achieved her first victory in seven tries over Aryna Sabalenka, via a rather straightforward 6-4, 6-3 score line. Outside of her home country of China, she was previously 0-6 in WTA 1000 quarterfinals, so the 22-year-old broke plenty of new ground with her win over Aryna. Zheng is a modest 13-7 in 2025, as she’s understandably struggled to follow-up on a career-changing and life-changing 2024.
A year ago in the quarterfinals of this same tournament, Gauff defeated Qinwen in straight sets. Their only other prior encounter occurred in the championship match of the WTA Finals this past fall, when Coco prevailed in a third-set tiebreak after over three hours of play.
The reigning Olympic gold medalist certainly knows how to play on this surface, as three of her five career titles have come on clay. If she can maintain her level from Wednesday against Sabalenka, she could easily win this contest. But doing so 24 hours following a quite monumental victory is a tough ask. And Gauff has rounded into strong form this past month on clay. So I favor Coco to advance to her second consecutive WTA 1000 final.
Other Notable Matches on Thursday:
Hubert Hurkacz (30) vs. Tommy Paul (11) – Hurkacz arrived in Rome with a losing record on the year, as he’s been battling a lower back injury. This is the first time in over three months that he’s won three consecutive matches. Paul is now 20-7 this season, as he vies for his second consecutive semifinal in Rome. Tommy leads their head-to-head 2-1, and he defeated Hubi in the same round of this same tournament a year ago, though it was a near three-hour three-setter.
Jasmine Paolini (6) vs. Peyton Stearns – Paolini survived a nervy performance in the quarterfinals, coming from a set down against a flustered Diana Shnaider, to achieve her second semifinal out of the last three WTA 1000 events. Stearns has amazingly won a third-set tiebreak in each of the last three rounds, against Madison Keys, Naomi Osaka, and Elina Svitolina, to make her WTA 1000 semifinal debut. This will be their first career meeting.
Thursday’s full Order of Play is here.
