Rafael Nadal is just two wins away from an astounding 14th Roland Garros title, and a record-extending 22nd men’s singles title at a Major. Prior to last year’s semifinal defeat at the hands of Novak Djokovic, Nadal was a combined 26-0 in French Open semifinals and finals. On Friday, Rafa faces Sascha Zverev, who is into his second consecutive semi in Paris.
The other men’s semi features two players making their Roland Garros semifinal debuts. For Casper Ruud, it’s his first semifinal at any Major. For Marin Cilic, this completes the career Grand Slam of semifinals.
Also on Friday, the women’s doubles semifinals will be played, which feature four top 25 singles players, including women’s singles finalist Coco Gauff.
Sascha Zverev (3) vs. Rafael Nadal (5) – Not Before 2:45pm on Court Philippe Chatrier
In last year’s semifinals, Nadal lost a four-set, over four-hour thriller to Djokovic, a loss he avenged on Tuesday in another gripping four-setter. On that same day last June, Zverev lost a five-set semi to Stefanos Tsitsipas. Sascha is now a combined 1-4 in Major semifinals and finals, with his only victory coming in the 2020 US Open semis, when he came from two sets down to defeat Pablo Carreno Busta. His other recent loss in a Slam semifinal was also a five-setter, when he faced Djokovic last September in New York.
Overall Nadal leads their head-to-head 6-3, and 4-1 on clay. However, Zverev has taken three of their last four meetings, one of which occurred on clay. Both players are coming off competitive four-set quarterfinals, though both had a full two days of rest ahead of Friday’s semifinal, so both should be fresh.
With a 29-7 record in Slam semis, Nadal rarely loses in this round of a Major, especially this one. And given Zverev’s contrasting history in the latter stages of Grand Slam events, Rafa is a considerable favorite to reach his 14th Roland Garros final, and his 30th Major final overall. The King of Clay will feel supremely confident after vanquishing Djokovic in the last round. And his chronically injured foot has not seemed to impact his level in Paris. I expect Nadal to celebrate his 36th birthday on Friday with his 111th win at the French Open.
Casper Ruud (8) vs. Marin Cilic (20) – Not Before 5:30pm on Court Philippe Chatrier
Which will prove more valuable on Friday: Casper’s superior clay court prowess, or Marin’s experience at Majors? Ruud has accumulated seven titles on this surface within a short span, yet prior to this fortnight, had never advanced beyond the fourth round of a Slam. And before this run, Cilic had lost as many clay court matches over the last three years as he’d won, but this is his 14th time reaching the quarters or better at a Major.
Cilic has advanced more comfortably thus far, dropping two less sets than Ruud. While Marin is coming off a grueling five-setter against Andrey Rublev on Wednesday, Ruud’s quarterfinal against Holger Rune on the same day went well past midnight, which is far from ideal with one just day’s rest in between.
Casper is 2-0 against Marin, with both those matches taking place within the last two years. At the 2020 Rome Masters, Ruud won in straight sets. At the 2021 Canada Masters, Ruud won in three. Cilic is playing at a much higher level than he was on those two occasions, though this surface should certainly favor Ruud. Across the last three seasons, no ATP player has won more matches on clay than Casper. The Norwegian’s mix of defensive skills plus a formidable forehand may prove too much for Marin, who can often get tight in big matches. I give Ruud the slight edge to achieve his first Major final.
Other Notable Matches on Friday:
Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula (8) vs. Madison Keys and Taylor Townsend – Between singles and doubles, Gauff and Pegula have accumulated 14 match wins this fortnight. This is their fifth event as a team this season, while Keys and Townsend are teaming for the first time.
Lyudmyla Kichenok and Jelena Ostapenko (14) vs. Caroline Garcia and Kiki Mladenovic (WC) – Kichenok and Ostapenko have prevailed in three consecutive three-setters. Garcia and Mladenovic won this title back in 2016.
Friday’s full Order of Play is here.
