Examining the performances of the most notable players from the third quarter of the season, as well as their prospects heading into Q4. Who will qualify for Singapore? The following players are listed in order by their year-to-date ranking points, prior to the start of the tournament this week in Beijing.
Simona Halep – 6,911 points
Halep has solidified herself as the clear world No.1 in 2018, and should easily finish out the year atop the rankings. In Q3, her Grand Slam results were lacking, with a 2-2 record at Majors. But Simona went on a nine-match winning streak in August, taking the title after a stellar final in Montreal against Sloane Stephens, as well as making the finals in Cincinnati the very next week. A back injury lead to a first round loss in Wuhan to close out her September. This will be her fifth straight appearance at the WTA Finals, where she hasn’t advanced from the round robin stage since her first in 2014. Considering her current injury status, advancing farther this year in Singapore could again prove challenging.
Angelique Kerber – 5,257 points
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Q3 saw Kerber win her third Major title, the second time she’s defeated Serena Williams in a Grand Slam final, to claim her first Wimbledon championship. But she’s been in quite a slump since that career highlight, going just 4-4 through the rest of Q3. This will be her fifth time qualifying for the WTA Finals, with her only advancement to the latter stages coming in her last appearance when she made the final in 2016. While Kerber has little momentum at this time, neither do most other top players, so Kerber has as good a chance as anyone in a wide-open Singapore field. With a lot of points separating Angelique and the players ranked directly above and below her, she’ll most likely end 2018 ranked No.2.
Naomi Osaka – 4,351 points
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Osaka showed signs of her US Open triumph to come earlier in 2018, but her Q3 started off rather modestly with a 3-4 record prior to New York. Following her win at the US Open, where she of course defeated Serena in the final, Osaka backed up that result with a run to the final in her home country of Japan. Her Q3 ended with a withdrawal from Wuhan due to illness. She’ll easily qualify for her debut at the WTA Finals, where as of now she’ll be one of the only players arriving in good form. Naomi was on a 10-match win streak before her loss in the Tokyo final. With almost 1,000 points separating Osaka and Kerber in the rankings, a leap into the No.2 ranking is unlikely. But in the race to end the year at No.3, with eight players within about 800 points of each other, Osaka is the leading candidate.
Petra Kvitova – 4,300 points
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After an outstanding first six months of the year, with five titles and 38 match wins, Q3 was a big letdown for Kvitova. The two-time Wimbledon champion went out in the opening round of The Championships this year, and went just 9-7 overall during the past three months. Does Petra have anything left for one last run in 2018? It’s looking doubtful, as she just went out in the opening round of Beijing, winning just three games against Daria Gavrilova. But Petra has found success at the WTA Finals before. In five previous appearances, she’s been the champion in 2011, a finalist in 2015, and a semifinalist in 2013. With this being her first time qualifying in three years, I’m sure Kvitova will be motivated to rediscover her past success in Singapore. I’m just not convinced she’ll have enough left in her tank to make an impact.
Caroline Wozniacki – 4,087 points
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The 2018 Australian Open champion was plagued with injuries throughout Q3, going just 3-6 during this time. She’ll be the defending champion in Singapore, an event where she also made the final in 2010 and was a semifinal on two other occasions. However I don’t like her chances of repeating as champion based on current form. Wozniacki’s biggest goal for Q4 should be to rest her body and get healthy prior to the Australian Open, another big title she’ll be looking to defend.
Elina Svitolina – 3,841 points
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Svitolina’s struggles at the Majors have been well documented, and they continued in Q3 with a 3-2 combined record at Wimbledon and the US Open. She made a quarterfinal and a semifinal in the US Open Series, but ended Q3 by losing in her opening round in both Wuhan and Beijing. Sivotlina is currently in sixth place in the Race To Singapore rankings, but it’s a tight race with the players ranked sixth-through-ninth within about 300 points of each other. In her WTA Finals debut last year, Svitolina went just 1-2. I would normally dismiss Elina’s chances of performing well in Singapore, but considering the way in which many top players are stumbling their way to the finish line this season, the WTA Finals would be a good opportunity for Svitolina to gain some traction at a big event.
Sloane Stephens – 3,824 points
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Q3 was full of ups and downs for Stephens, which has become a clear pattern in her career. She lost in the first round of Wimbledon, but then won 10 matches in North America, the place where most of her success has always come. Following her US Open title last year, she went on an eight-match losing streak. After her quarterfinal appearance this year in New York, she’s now 0-2, with opening round losses in Tokyo and Wuhan. Can she qualify for her debut at the WTA Finals? She’s currently in seventh place in the race, but two of the hottest players on tour, Karolina Pliskova and Kiki Bertens, are within 300 points of her. Both of those players just won titles in Asia to close out Q3, but would need another significant result to pass Stephens with just a few weeks left before Singapore. I’d be curious to see how Stephens would perform at that event. She’s certainly a streaky player, but usually plays her best on big stages.
Karolina Pliskova – 3,601 points
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2018 has been a disappointing year for Pliskova, but she’s showing signs of turning things around. She continued to struggle for the first half of Q3, but made the quarters in New York, and won her second title of the year in Tokyo. With new coach Rennae Stubbs by her side, she seems to be getting some of her mojo back. Pliskova leads Kiki Bertens by less than 100 points in the race for the final qualifying spot for Singapore, so her qualification for the WTA Finals is anything but assured. It would be her third straight year in Singapore, where she was a semifinalist last year. If she does qualify, I think she could do some damage there, as she’ll arrive with a lot of confidence.
Kiki Bertens – 3,532 points
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Q3 was the best quarter of Bertens’ career, which brought qualifying for her first WTA Finals within reach. In years past, her best results came on the clay, but Q3 proved she’s now a force on any surface. She made her second Major quarterfinal at Wimbledon, and then also made the quarters of the Rogers Cup. A week later, she won the biggest title of her career in Cincinnati, defeating World No.1 Simona Halep in the final. After being upset in the third round of the US Open, she rebounded to win her third title of 2018 in South Korea. Kiki lost in the second round of the Wuhan Open, and now needs a few more wins to qualify for Singapore. If she gets there, she’ll be a considerable threat. Bertens had eight wins over top 10 players in Q3 alone.
Elise Mertens – 3,080 points
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The 22-year-old Belgian started 2018 ranked too low to be seeded at the Majors. That quickly changed with a 10-match win streak to begin her year, which included a title in Hobart and a surprising semifinal run at the Australian Open. She proved throughout the year those results were not flukes, with three titles overall and 43 match wins to date. Her consistent play continued in Q3 with 13 wins in July and August. She’ll likely finish just shy of qualifying for Singapore, and could easily see her ranking slip at the start of 2019 with so many points to defend in January.
Serena Williams – 2,976 points
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While she fell one match short of winning her 24th Major title at both Wimbledon and the US Open, just getting to the finals of both those events was an impressive feat considering Serena’s lack of match play over the past year. We’ve assumedly seen the last of Serena on a tennis court for the season, though look for her to return with a vengeance next year. Following the controversial women’s final in New York, she’ll be even more determined to win titles in 2019.
Aryna Sabalenka – 2,940 points
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Sabalenka was the revelation of the tour in Q3. The 20-year-old won 20 matches in August and September. After upsetting Wozniacki at the Rogers Cup, she made the semis in Cincinnati, and then won her first tour-level title in New Haven. Despite all that match play within a few weeks, she marched on to the fourth round at the US Open, where she lost to the eventual champion, Naomi Osaka. And to top all that off, she ended Q3 by winning the biggest title of her career to date, the Premier 5 event in Wuhan. Sabalenka would still need at least 700 more points to qualify for Singapore, which seems unlikely, but cannot be completely ruled out based on her current level of play. Regardless, Aryna has exhibited the shot-making, composure, and confidence that could make her a dominant figure on tour for many years to come.
