In the men’s semifinals, we have a 17-time Major champion in pursuit of Roger Federer’s record of 20 Major titles. We have a 13-time champion who following two years of injuries and subpar play, is vying to win his second consecutive Grand Slam event. We have a former US Open champion who after missing years of his career due to wrist injuries, is fighting to return to a Major final for the first time in nine years. And we have a 28-year-old trying to become to first man from Japan to win a Grand Slam event.
Rafael Nadal vs. Juan Martin Del Potro
At the 2016 Rio Olympics, Del Potro defeated Nadal in a fantastic and emotional match, decided in a final set tiebreak. Juan Martin would go on to claim the silver medal, while Rafa went home without a medal at all. They’ve played three times since that heartbreaking loss for Nadal, with all three taking place at Majors over the past year, and Nadal winning all three times. They met in this same round of last year’s US Open, when Rafa dropped the first set but easily took the next three. Del Potro was less than 100% in that match, having fought a virus earlier in the week, and coming off draining matches against Dominic Thiem and Roger Federer. They next met at Roland Garros earlier this year, with Nadal claiming a dominant victory in the semifinals, dropping only seven games. Their last match was at the last Grand Slam event, where they created one of the best matches of the year. In a near-five hour Wimbledon quarterfinal, Nadal prevailed 6-4 in the fifth, in a match of astounding quality and drama.
Overall Rafa owns an 11-5 record against Juan Martin, with all five of Del Potro’s victories coming on hard courts. The Argentinian should arrive at this semifinal much fresher than Nadal. In his last three matches, Rafa has spent 12 hours and 31 minutes on court. His quarterfinal against Dominic Thiem went nearly five hours, and ended at 2:03am. Del Potro has spent nearly four less hours on court than Nadal over his past three matches. The good news for Rafa is he’s had two days rest since Tuesday’s epic encounter with Thiem.
Juan Martin has shown no signs of his oft-injured wrists bothering him at this tournament, and he’s only dropped one set in route to this semifinal. This is now the fourth time these two have met out of the last five Majors. You know the crowd will be pumped up for this big match between these two beloved figures and ferocious hitters, with a significant and highly-vocal portion of the audience backing Del Potro. Of course you can never count out Nadal, the ultimate competitor in the sport, but it feels like Del Potro is due for a victory over Rafa, and this feels like the time.
Novak Djokovic vs. Kei Nishikori
The last time these two played at the US Open, Nishikori upset Djokovic on an extremely hot and humid day in New York to advance to his only Major final. Djokovic has completely owned Nishikori since that day. They’ve met thirteen times in the past four years, with Novak claiming victory in every single one of those matches. Djokovic has struggled many times during this fortnight in severe heat similar to that of their match from 2014, but the forecast on Friday calls for much cooler conditions. That will be a big advantage for Novak.
Also in his favor? Djokovic played his quarterfinal at night, a competitive match against John Millman, which he escaped in straight sets. Nishikori played a five-set match against Marin Cilic that lasted over four hours during the hottest part of the day. And unlike Nadal, Nishikori only had one day of rest prior to the semifinals, so he’ll for sure be less than 100% on Friday. But Kei has played some excellent tennis during this tournament, and his best seems to come out in New York. The US Open is the only Grand Slam tournament where he’s been farther than the quarterfinals, and he’s now done so in three of his last four appearances in New York. Djokovic will have that loss from four years ago on his mind, but that will likely motivate him rather than deter him. Novak is through to his 11th straight US Open semifinal out of his last 11 appearances, and is 7-3 at this stage. I suspect we’ll see him advance to his eighth final in New York.
