Only three men remain with a chance to do so. Nadal’s opponent on Friday may just be the biggest threat left: a big ball-striker who will not be intimidated by the all-time great standing on the other side of the net. The other two men will face off on Friday, with a top clay courter in his third straight Roland Garros semifinal taking on the most unlikely major semifinalist in recent memory.
Rafael Nadal vs. Juan Martin Del Potro
Del Potro is the man I’ve been most interested to see square off against Nadal during this clay court season. He dominated the North American hard court season, even toppling Roger Federer in an intense Indian Wells final. But can he translate that success to clay, and against the king of this surface?
While the majority of Del Potro’s success in his career has come on hard courts, the Argentine is certainly comfortable on clay. He has four titles on the surface, although none since 2012. These two men have played some significant matches against each other, especially their last two meetings. In the same round of the US Open last summer, Nadal won pretty easily against a fatigued Del Potro. In the summer prior, Juan Martin defeated Rafa in the semifinals of the Olympics in an amazing match which went to a final set tiebreak. Overall Nadal owns a 9-5 record against Del Potro. Rafa is 2-0 on clay, but they haven’t played on clay since 2011. Del Potro plays the brand of tennis that has disrupted Nadal’s game many times in the past: powerful, penetrating groundstrokes. I worry though about Juan Martin’s ability to handle Rafa’s high-bouncing balls hit with so much topspin, which come up even higher off the clay than other surfaces. Del Potro prefers to make contact with the ball closer to the court, not near his shoulder. Juan Martin’s extended battle against Marin Cilic just yesterday also won’t help his chances. He appeared very frustrated at times during that quarterfinal, and let out a lot of tears on-court immediately after victory. It’s often hard to recover from such an emotional release and compete at your best in the next round, though I said the same thing following Del Potro’s comeback against Dominic Thiem at the US Open. He proceeded to come back in the next round and upset Roger Federer.
I don’t expect Del Potro to be as intimiated by Nadal’s aura on clay as most opponents are: in fact, Rafa will also feel the presence and power of Juan Martin. Nadal played very poorly in the first set and a half of his quarterfinal against Diego Schwartzman, but recovered after a rain delay, and played especially well under sunnier conditions on Thursday. When this match begins late-afternoon in Paris, the forecast calls for mostly sunny skies and rather warm temperatures, which of course favors Nadal. I hope Del Potro has enough energy left to make this a fight, but I’m not betting against Nadal advancing to his 11th final at Roland Garros. After all, Rafa is 10-0 in French Open semifinals.
Dominic Thiem vs. Marco Cecchinato
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The story of Italy’s Marco Cecchinato is hard to comprehend. Prior to this fortnight, he had not only never won a match at any Grand Slam event, he only had 12 tour-level wins in his entire career. He had four career tour wins as of just two months ago. Everything changed for Marco six weeks ago, when he came out of nowhere, and through qualifying, to win his first title in Budapest. But still, no one saw this run coming. Over the past 12 days, Cecchinato defeated two top 10 seeds in David Goffin and Pablo Carreno Busta, before upsetting Novak Djokovic in the match of the tournament thus far. It was startling to watch his level of play in the fourth set tiebreak against an all-time great, who by the way also played extremely well in that awesome tiebreak. To come back from a fourth set deficit and compete in that way against a 12-time major champion showed an astounding level of belief from a player never before ranked inside the top 50. It’s hard to imagine he can extend this dream run into the final of the French Open, especially considering he’ll face one of the best players on clay in this semifinal.
Thiem is yet to be farther than this round at Roland Garros, but this third try should be the charm for the Austrian. They’ve actually played twice before and split those meetings, though those matches were both on hard courts, both over four years ago, and in either qualifying or on the ITF circuit. Both men should be rather fresh physically following two days off, though Marco must still be reeling from the emotions of his life-changing success at this tournament. I expect Thiem will advance to his first major final, but I discounted Cecchinato’s chances against Djokovic. Also, all the pressure here will be on Thiem, and we’ve seen him play very tightly on big occasions in the past. As we learned in Cecchinato’s last match, the outcome is never for certain. How will this Italian dream end?
Order of play on (times in GMT):
Court Philippe Chatrier (play starts at 1200)
Marco Cecchinato (Italy) v 7-Dominic Thiem (Austria)
Not before 1430
1-Rafa Nadal (Spain) v 5-Juan Martin del Potro (Argentina)
