The men’s singles semifinals are on Friday in Paris.
Alexander Zverev has twice been just one set away from winning a Major, but this may be his best chance yet to win that elusive Major title. The two men that have combined to claim the last nine Majors, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, are both absent from these semifinals, as is 24-time Major champion Novak Djokovic. In their place are three inexperienced players in the latter stages of Majors, all making their Major semifinal debuts.
However, in the semifinals, Zverev faces arguably the most threatening of the three: big-serving Jakub Mensik. The second semifinal is an all-Italian affair between Flavio Cobolli and Matteo Arnaldi.
Jakub Mensik (26) vs. Alexander Zverev (2) – 2:30pm on Court Philippe-Chatrier
Through five rounds, Zverev is yet to show any signs of the enormous pressure he must be feeling to capitalize on this rare opportunity. The 29-year-old has dropped only one set, and after coming back from 5-2 in the first set of his quarterfinal against Rafael Jodar, he ran away with the last two sets to win in straights. However, semifinals have been an issue for Zverev. At Masters 1000 events, he’s lost six of his last seven matches in this round, all within the past year. At Majors, he’s just 3-7 in semifinals, with a 1-3 record in Paris.
Mensik has navigated a much more complicated path to this semifinal. After being wheeled off the court in full-body cramps after a second round match that went to a fifth-set tiebreak, the 20-year-old recovered enough to upset sixth-seeded Alex de Minaur in four sets. He then upset 11th-seeded Andrey Rublev in five, before taking out Joao Fonseca in straights on Tuesday. But coming off a straight-setter, and with two days of rest, Mensik should be rather fresh for his first Major semifinal.
Their only prior meeting occurred just a few weeks ago on the clay of Madrid, where Zverev won a tight three-setter. In that match, both won 80% or more of their first serve points, which is no surprise given the serving prowess of both. In the last round against Fonseca, Mensik achieved 83% of first serve points won. If he can maintain those numbers on Friday, and get a high percentage of first serves in, Mensik has a real shot at defeating Zverev.
Zverev’s huge edge in experience should enable him to prevail, but his negative experiences in big matches could just as easily impact his play. If he gets nervous under the pressure of the moment, Mensik could be the right player to take advantage of that: a big server with no demons in a match like this.
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli (10) – Not Before 7:00pm on Court Philippe-Chatrier
This will be the biggest match in the career of both Italians. 24-year-old Cobolli and 25-year-old Arnaldi have split their two previous encounters, with Arnaldi prevailing two years in straights, and Cobolli prevailing last year in four sets at this same event. That most recent matchup came a round after Arnaldi had upset Felix Auger-Aliassime in five sets, and a tired Matteo did not serve well against Flavio, striking just one ace and eight double faults.
In recent months, Arnaldi has battled a lingering foot injury, resulting in his ranking dropping out of the top 100, and a record of just 2-6 this season at tour level. So this run to his first Major semifinal came out of nowhere, as did his exceptional form and stamina. Matteo has spent more time on court than anyone, thanks to a pair of five setters that lasted five-hours or longer. That included an exceptional fifth-set tiebreak performance against Raphael Collignon, and a comeback from two-sets-to-one down, plus two breaks, against Frances Tiafoe. In the quarterfinals, he received a mid-match retirement from Matteo Berrettini, which should allow Arnaldi to be a bit more recovered on Friday.
Cobolli has advanced with the loss of only two sets, and owns a much stronger record on the year of 23-12. During this clay court season, he advanced to the final in Munich, and the quarterfinals in Madrid. And despite Arnaldi’s abbreviated quarterfinal, Cobolli is still the fresher and more in-form player, with more experience in big matches. In a matchup between two players with similar games, those should be big difference makers, and they make Cobolli the favorite. But in a tournament where upsets have become contagious, and in a first Major semifinal for both men, it’s anyone’s guess who wins on Friday.
Friday’s full Order of Play is here.
