The championship match in men’s singles is on Sunday night in Melbourne.
Novak Djokovic is just one match away from a record-extending 25th Major singles title in the Open Era. In the semifinals, the 38-year-old played excellently, outlasting two-time defending champion Jannik Sinner in five sets. However, to win this title, he needs to come back less than 48 hours later to defeat World No.1 Carlos Alcaraz. Sinner and Alcaraz have combined to win the last eight Majors, but Alcaraz is also coming off a five-set semifinal that went nearly five-and-a-half hours. With neither player 100% physically, who will win Sunday night’s championship match?
Carlos Alcaraz (1) vs. Novak Djokovic (4) – 7:30pm on Rod Laver Arena
This is a first Australian Open final for Alcaraz, as he looks to complete the career Grand Slam. He has stalled twice before in the quarterfinals of this tournament, including last year when he was upset by Djokovic. But once Carlitos reaches a final at a big event, he’s been nearly unbeatable. The 22-year-old is 6-1 in Major finals, with the only loss coming last summer at Wimbledon to Sinner. And he is 8-1 in Masters 1000 finals, with the only loss coming in the epic 2023 Cincinnati final to Djokovic.
Djokovic is a perfect 10-0 in Australian Open finals, and 24-13 in Major finals overall. This is his first Major final in 18 months, when he lost to Alcaraz in straight sets in the Wimbledon final. And it’s his first final in Melbourne since 2023, after stalling in the semifinals in both of the last two years.
Alcaraz did not drop a set through his first five matches, but he scarcely survived his semifinal against Sascha Zverev. After going up two sets, the Spaniard began suffering from cramps during the third, losing the third and fourth in tiebreaks. He then went down a break in the fifth, but Zverev was unable to close the match, with Alcaraz breaking him twice at the end of that set to win 7-5.
Djokovic was extremely lucky to not only receive walkover in the fourth round, but also a mid-match retirement in the quarterfinals, after going down two-sets-to-love to Lorenzo Musetti. However, his form in the semifinals against Sinner, who was a considerable favorite to win his third consecutive title, was a height we had not seen Novak reach in some time. He dictated play, served excellently, and held his nerve, saving an astounding 16 of 18 break points. While his semifinal was over an hour shorter than Alcaraz’s, Djokovic’s semifinal didn’t end until early on Saturday morning, leaving his 38-year-old body significantly less time to recover.
These two men share a dramatic history. Back in 2023, just a month after cramping badly and losing their Roland Garros semifinal, Alcaraz dethroned Djokovic in a thrilling five-set Wimbledon final. Just weeks after that was their aforementioned Cincinnati final, when Djokovic saved championship point to prevail in an over three-and-a-half hour three-setter. A summer later, at the Paris Olympics, Djokovic mustered up some more magic, achieving perhaps the most cherished accomplishment of his entire career: Olympic gold. And in last year’s Australian Open semifinals, an injured Novak managed to outplay an erratic Carlitos in a four-set victory.
Overall Djokovic leads their head-to-head 5-4. At Majors, it’s 3-2 Alcaraz. On hard courts, it’s 3-1 Djokovic, though their most recent meeting on this surface went to Alcaraz, which was a straight-set win this past September in the US Open semifinals.
Carlitos’ surprising off-season breakup with long-time coach Juan Carlos Ferrero concerned me, as I expected Ferrero’s absence to negatively impact his former charge’s chances at Majors. But that has not appeared to have any impact on Alcaraz’s play through six rounds, though perhaps it will in a championship match against the greatest player of all-time, against whom Alcaraz owns a losing record and has often played tentatively.
Of course Djokovic will surely be nervous on Sunday as well, knowing this will be one of his last chances to win another Major. Defeating Sinner and Alcaraz within the span of 48 hours in best-of-five matches would arguably be the most impressive accomplishment in his storied career. However, it’s likely too much to ask of an aging Novak to maintain his superb level of play from Friday. And with 16 less years of wear and tear on his body, Carlitos should be the fresher player. He will also be less likely to cramp during a night match, especially with very cool temperatures forecasted. Alcaraz is the favorite to win his seventh Major title, and to become the youngest man to complete the career Grand Slam in the Open Era.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.
