Sunday hosts the championship match in men’s singles.
For the third Major in a row, the two best male singles players in the world collide in the championship match. Three months ago at Roland Garros, they provided one of the best matches of all-time, with Carlos Alcaraz coming back from two sets down and saving three championship points to eventually prevail in a final-set tiebreak after five-and-a-half hours. Two months ago at Wimbledon, Jannik Sinner avenged that loss by coming from behind himself, and winning his first non-hard court Major title in four sets. On Sunday, we get the rubber match to close out the 2025 Grand Slam season.
Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (2) – 2:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
At all levels, which includes a Challenger match on clay from 2019, Alcaraz leads this head-to-head 10-5. On hard courts, it’s 6-2 Alcaraz. At Majors, it’s 3-2 Alcaraz.
Following a few close contests during 2021 and 2022, this rivalry started in earnest three years ago at this same event. In a quarterfinal that lasted over five hours, and ended near 3:00am in the morning, Alcaraz outlasted Sinner 6-3 in the fifth, in another case where he saved a match point earlier in the contest. Their next five-setter took place during the 2024 Roland Garros semifinals, when Carlitos again came from behind to win in five. A few months later in the final of Beijing, it was a similar story: an Alcaraz comeback victory, in a near three-and-a-half hour three-setter.
In this rivalry, Alcaraz has been the better player by thin margins at crucial moments. And he comes into this match perhaps more confident than ever. Carlitos is 60-6 on the year, and since the start of May, is 36-1. For the first time in his career, he arrives to a Major final without dropping a set, and has only been broken twice through six rounds. The normal early-round lapses we’ve become accustomed to from Alcaraz have disappeared this fortnight.
Sinner returned from his three-month suspension in May looking as sharp as ever. He is 37-4 on the year, and has claimed 47 of his last 49 matches on a hard court. Canadians are the only ones to pose any challenge to him during this tournament, as he lost a set to both Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime. Jannik took a medical timeout after losing the second set of his semifinal to Felix, having his right arm and shoulder area examined, and also pointing to his stomach. The Italian’s service speed dipped at that point of the match, but it regained its zip as the match progressed. It is unclear if Sinner suffered an injury that may impact his form on Sunday.
These players share almost identical records in finals: Alcaraz is 22-7, while Sinner is 20-8. In Majors finals, Alcaraz is 5-1, while Sinner is 4-1, their only loss coming this year at the hands of the other. If this match goes the distance, that would be a huge advantage for Carlitos: he is a superb 14-1 in five-setters, while Jannik is only 6-10. This could become especially crucial if Sinner is somewhat injured.
So who will prevail on this day? Alcaraz’s engaging shot-making and court coverage can be more explosive, but it also comes with more peaks and valleys. Sinner’s level is more consistent, and his personality more reserved. That often earns him less crowd support, and he has been unable to lift his level to match that of Alcaraz when it matters most.
Their shared history, as well as current form, suggest Carlitos is the favorite. However, it’s been two full years since anyone has beaten Jannik at a hard court Major, though he also hasn’t faced Carlitos in any of those matches. But on Sunday, I lean slightly towards Sinner to prevail. He’s just been so dominant on this surface, and will draw confidence from turning this rivalry around on a similarly-fast surface at Wimbledon, following five straight losses. And he was so close to to defeating Alcaraz in Paris on clay, which is arguably Sinner’s worst surface. If Jannik does prevail, that will even this rivalry at five Major titles apiece, setting the stage for quite the race in the seasons to come.
