Monday features the championship matches in both men’s and women’s singles.
Two months ago in the championship match of Roland Garros, Carlos Alcaraz defeated Jannik Sinner in what was unquestionably one of the best matches of all-time. Just five weeks later, Sinner avenged that loss by defeating Alcaraz in the championship match of Wimbledon. On Monday in Cincinnati, they meet again in yet another championship match.
The women’s final is also a rematch of a Roland Garros championship match, from back in 2024, when Iga Swiatek easily prevailed over Jasmine Paolini.
Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (2) – 3:00pm on Center Court
Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 8-5 at tour level, and a bit surprisingly, leads 5-2 on hard courts, Sinner’s preferred surface. This rivalry is only three years old, yet it has already gifted us a few truly sensational matches, and even inspired a new book by Giri Nathan that comes out on Tuesday. Three years ago at the US Open, they played for five hours and 15 minutes, and until nearly 3:00am, in a match where Alcaraz saved a match point in the fourth set, and eventually prevailed 6-3 in the fifth. That was our first glimpse into a new level of tennis that is only achieved when these two unmatched talents collide, and a level they can somehow sustain for over five hours.
Two years later in the Roland Garros semifinals, Carlitos again came back from two-sets-to-one down to prevail in five. And just a few months after that, in the final of Beijing, it was Alcaraz yet again coming from behind to win, this time in a final-set tiebreak. Then this past June in Paris, Carlitos and Jannik somehow outdid themselves, playing for nearly five-and-a-half hours, and producing a level of tennis even higher than they had three years prior in New York. On this day, Alcaraz saved multiple championship points from two-sets-down, and played a nearly-perfect fifth-set tiebreak, to again prevail.
However, a month later in the Wimbledon final, Sinner finally earned his first victory over Alcaraz in six tries, coming back from a set down to win in four. It now seems that every time these two players are entered into the draw, they meet in the final. That started in Rome, continued in Paris and Rome, and now happens again in Cincinnati.
The fast-playing conditions in Cincy would assumedly favor Jannik, despite what their hard court head-to-head may be. Plus, Sinner has been the much better player during these last 10 days at this event, claiming all 10 sets he’s contested. Alcaraz has dropped two sets to this stage, and it’s been yet another tournament this year where the Spaniard has suffered considerable lapses in form. But of course, he usually still finds a way to win, and we’ve seen him up his level against Sinner many times in the recent past.
Carlitos is 7-1 in Masters 1000 finals, though his only loss came at this same tournament two years ago, in another epic final. That time, it was against Novak Djokovic, in a three-setter that lasted nearly four hours, and saw Alcaraz squander championship points. He was not the same player for the six months following that painful loss, so that is some serious scar tissue for Carlitos to overcome on this court.
Sinner is 8-3 in Masters finals, and a year ago in this tournament final, he defeated Frances Tiafoe in straights. Having turned this rivalry around last month at Wimbledon, Jannik should be favored to earn another victory over Carlitos on Monday, and to gain more confidence ahead of his US Open title defense, and what could easily be another final between these two in New York.
Iga Swiatek (3) vs. Jasmine Paolini (7) – Not Before 6:00pm on Center Court
Swiatek is a perfect 4-0 against Paolini, and has taken eight of the nine sets they’ve played. Those matches have occurred on three different surfaces. Most recently, less than two months ago in Bad Homburg, Iga comfortably beat Jasmine 6-1, 6-3.
For Swiatek, this is her first WTA 1000 final in over a year, as she had lost her last four semifinals at this level. Iga has been a different player since completing a highly disappointing clay court season. She went on to win Wimbledon, with the loss of only one set. Then despite taking an early loss in Montreal, she’s rebounded strongly in Cincy, and has not lost a set on her way to this final. And finals are where Swiatek thrives: she’s 23-5 in tour finals, and 10-2 in WTA 1000 finals, having won her last five.
By contrast, Paolini has struggled since winning her second WTA 1000 singles title this past May in her home country. And she has endured a pair of tight three-setters within the last two rounds. Jasmine benefitted from a rather dismal performance by Coco Gauff in the quarterfinals, as well as the inexperience of Veronika Kudermetova in the semifinals. And based on their head-to-head history, Swiatek is a considerable favorite to win this title.
Monday’s full Order of Play is here.
