The women’s singles semifinals are on Thursday in Paris.
Iga Swiatek is on a 26-match winning streak at Roland Garros, matching Serena Williams’ US Open streak as the longest at a single Major this century in women’s singles (as per OptaAce). But on Thursday, a struggling Iga faces what is likely her toughest opposition at this tournament in four years, in World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka.
The other women’s singles semifinal sees Coco Gauff take on one of the most shocking Major semifinalists in tennis history: French wild card Lois Boisson.
Day 12 also hosts the first men’s doubles semifinal, as well as the championship match in mixed doubles.
Aryna Sabalenka (1) vs. Iga Swiatek (5) – Not Before 3:00pm on Court Philippe-Chatrier
Swiatek leads their head-to-head 8-4, with all 12 matches taking place within the last four years. On clay, Iga leads 5-1, and Aryna’s only victory on this surface came two years ago in the faster conditions of Madrid. A year later in Madrid, these two played an epic final, which saw Swiatek save championship point and prevail in a final-set tiebreak after over three hours of play.
Surprisingly, this is only their second meeting at a Major, after Iga came from a set down in the 2022 US Open semifinals to defeat Aryna, and claim her only Major title outside of Paris to date. Their most recent encounter occurred last summer in Cincinnati, where Sabalenka comfortably won in straights, again in quicker conditions.
But nearly a year after their last matchup, these two players are in much different places. Since winning this title a year ago, Swiatek is 0-6 in WTA semifinals. A loss on these grounds last summer in the Paris Olympics seemed to rattle her confidence, as did her one-month suspension in the fall for a positive drug test, for which she was found to have “no significant fault or negligence.” And this past January, she was just one point away from reaching her first Australian Open final, yet lost that semifinal to eventual champion Madison Keys.
While this is not the usual version of Iga we are accustomed to seeing at this event, she’s still played rather well, dropping just one set through five rounds. That came during an impressive comeback in the round of 16 against Elena Rybakina. And despite her recent semifinal woes, she is 4-0 in Roland Garros semifinals, and 5-2 in semis at all Majors.
As Swiatek has struggled, Sabalenka has ascended, becoming a rather dominant World No.1, with no player within 4,000 ranking points of her. She’s 39-6 on the year, and has advanced to six finals, winning three of them. Aryna is yet to drop a set, notching impressive straight-set victories in the last two rounds over Amanda Anisimova and Qinwen Zheng.
However, Major semifinals have often been a huge stumbling block for Sabalenka. While she’s now won her last five at hard court Majors, she’s 0-3 in non-hard court Major semifinals. Two years ago, Aryna suffered a heartbreaking loss in the semis here to Karolina Muchova, losing the last five games after holding a match point at 5-2 in the third. She’s also lost a pair of three-set semifinals at Wimbledon.
So which player will overcome their semifinal scar tissue on Thursday? Defeating Swiatek at Roland Garros has become one of the sport’s biggest asks, as she’s now 40-2 lifetime at this tournament. But Sabalenka is the far more confident player, having fully embraced her status as the top player in the world. And her powerful serve and groundstrokes can dictate play, though she can also spray errors when flustered.
In this huge semifinal, which could easily have implications on the rest of the season, Sabalenka is the favorite. While the cooler forecast for Thursday afternoon is not in her favor, there’s also possible rain in the forecast, and indoor conditions would surely favor Aryna’s big serving. Regardless of an indoor or outdoor match, Swiatek feels extremely vulnerable, and feels due for a loss at her favorite tournament.
Lois Boisson (WC) vs. Coco Gauff (2) – Last on Court Philippe-Chatrier
361st-ranked Lois Boisson has become a semifinalist in her Major debut, and at her home country’s Slam. It was an unfathomable story at the start of this fortnight, as the 22-year-old had missed most of the past 12 months after tearing her ACL just a week before she was to make her Major debut here a year ago. Could she possibly advance to Saturday’s championship match? Well, based on what we saw on Wednesday, that does not seem unfathomable.
Boisson has already taken out two of the top six players in the world (Pegula, Andreeva), thanks to a mix of power and guile, as well as the raucous French crowd. Andreeva did herself no favors on Wednesday by overreacting to the crowd’s hostility, revealing how much they were bothering her. Mirra basically defeated herself in the end, losing the last five games of the match. However, full credit to Lois for maintaining her composure under such new and enormous circumstances.
On the same day, Gauff played some truly ugly tennis. Her quarterfinal against Madison Keys was tough to watch, as it was filled with errors and nervous play. In the first set alone, Coco struck zero aces compared to seven double faults, and only seven winners compared to 21 unforced errors. But Gauff did well to battle back after losing the first set in a tiebreak, decisively winning the final set 6-1.
That’s the only set Coco has lost through five matches, as she vies for her third consecutive final in as many clay court events. She’s 29-8 this season, and 16-3 on this surface. Roland Garros is easily her best Major, where she is now 25-5 lifetime, as she looks to reach her second final in Paris.
But it will be vital for Gauff to learn from Andreeva’s mistakes, and not allow the crowd to get to her. She’ll also need to learn from her own past mistakes, as last season we too often saw Coco become emotional on court when losing. In her semifinal loss here a year ago to Swiatek, Gauff was in tears mid-match, after an argument with the chair umpire. And less than two months later on this same court, during the Paris Olympics, Coco was again frustrated to the point of tears after another umpire dispute. On that day, she exclaimed, “It always happens to me on this court… I feel like I’ve been cheated on constantly.” So Gauff has plenty of her own bad memories on Court Philippe-Chatrier.
Coco should still be able to advance, and I expect her level of play to increase significantly from Wednesday, as playing against a friend and fellow countrywoman is always tricky. However, I’m most curious to see how Gauff handles being such a huge favorite in a Major semifinal, and how she fares facing a French player who has captivated the country. If Boisson can hold her nerve and apply pressure to Gauff, anything can happen on Thursday.
Other Notable Matches on Thursday:
Taylor Townsend and Evan King (4) vs. Sara Errani and Andrea Vavassori (3) – This is partially a rematch from last summer’s US Open final, when Townsend and Donald Young lost to Errani and Vavassori in two tight sets. Townsend is going for her third Major title, all within the past year, while this is a first Major final for King. Errani is a six-time Major champ, while the aforementioned US Open is Vavassori’s only Major title to date.
Hugo Nys and Edouard Roger-Vasselin (16) vs. Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos (5) – Granollers and Zeballos are vying for their fourth Major final as a team, and their first at Roland Garros. Roger-Vasellin won this event back in 2014 alongside fellow Frenchman Julien Benneteau, defeating Granollers and his then-partner Marc Lopez in the final.
Thursday’s full Order of Play is here.
