Roland Garros Daily Preview: Swiatek Faces Rybakina in the Round of 16 - UBITENNIS

Roland Garros Daily Preview: Swiatek Faces Rybakina in the Round of 16

By Matthew Marolf
12 Min Read
Iga Swiatek on Friday in Paris (twitter.com/rolandgarros)

Fourth round singles action begins on Sunday in Paris.

Iga Swiatek was certainly relieved to see Jelena Ostapenko lose to Elena Rybakina in the last round, despite her poor attempt to claim otherwise on Friday.  Swiatek is 0-6 against Ostapenko, easily the worst head-to-head of her career.  However, Iga is only 4-4 against Elena, and Rybakina has claimed both of their clay court meetings.  So this is still a complicated fourth round draw for the four-time and defending champion.

Two other top seeds in women’s singles also face considerable opposition on Sunday.  World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka goes up against Amanda Anisimova, who has taken five of seven meetings against Sabalenka.  And last year’s runner-up Jasmine Paolini takes on Elina Svitolina, who defeated Paolini at the last Major.

The men’s singles draw also contains some great fourth round matchups on Day 8.  In a battle between two of the sport’s most powerful players, defending champion Carlos Alcaraz faces Ben Shelton.  And in a meeting between top 10 seeds, Lorenzo Musetti plays Holger Rune.

Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s most prominent matches, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule.  Sunday’s play gets underway at 11:00am local time. 


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Jasmine Paolini (4) vs. Elina Svitolina (13) – 11:00am on Court Philippe-Chatrier

In the third round of this year’s Australian Open, Svitolina came from a set down to defeat Paolini 6-0 in the third.  Elina played a pretty terrible first set that day, striking 13 unforced errors.  Yet it would be Jasmine’s game that would loosen up during the second and third sets, striking a combined 21 unforced errors during those sets, and just 14 winners.  That match is their only previous meeting.

Unforced errors will likely continue to be a huge factor on Sunday between these two consistent players.  Both have found success later in their careers by becoming more offensive-minded, but being aggressive against a good defender, which each player is, becomes complicated.  Paolini’s forehand will be the biggest shot on the court, which she’ll look to use to control and end the rallies.

And the Italian arrives on a nine-match win streak, coming off her title run in Rome.  She’s also on a seven-match win streak in doubles, so she’s 16-0 overall across the past three weeks.  But Svitolina has also been playing well on clay, with a 15-2 record this season, and a smaller title in Rouen.  She hasn’t dropped a set through three rounds, and the Ukrainian is a four-time quarterfinalist in Paris.

On Sunday, I give the slight edge on Svitolina.  Her recent victory over Paolini will provide her with confidence, and I expect the Italian to be feeling pressure against her first seeded opponent of this event, and in her first time defending such a huge result.


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Elena Rybakina (12) vs. Iga Swiatek (5) – Second on Court Philippe-Chatrier

Rybakina’s two clay court victories over Swiatek were both three-setters, one of which took place two years ago in Rome, and the other last year in Stuttgart, though it’s worth noting Iga retired at 2-2 during the third set of their Rome encounter.  Their only meeting at a Major occurred at the 2023 Australian Open, where Elena prevailed 6-4, 6-4 in the round of 16.  Swiatek has claimed both of their matches this season, with both happening on hard courts.

The defending champion is now 38-2 at Roland Garros, and is on a 24-match winning streak in Paris.  However, she hasn’t made a tour final since winning this event a year ago, and Iga is currently ranked outside the top five for the first time in over three years.

Rybakina is on a seven-match winning streak, after capturing a title just a day before this tournament began in Strasbourg.  She’s now 26-9 on the year, as she vies for her third French Open quarterfinal.

If her serve and forehand are clicking, Elena can often take the racquet out of Iga’s hands, and control her own fate.  However, while Swiatek has lost much of her aura on this surface, she’s still won this event four out of the last five years, and beating her on this court remains a tall task.  So I favor Iga in what should be a tight and nervy affair on Sunday afternoon.


Aryna Sabalenka (1) vs. Amanda Anisimova (16) – Third on Court Suzanne-Lenglen

Anisimova beat Sabalenka the first four times they played, which included three matches on clay.  Sabalenka then took the next two, including a three-set win last year on clay in Rome.  And their most recent encounter, last summer on a Canadian hard court, went to Anisimova 6-4, 6-2.

In Toronto, Amanda’s formidable serve proved crucial, saving all five break points she faced during the first set.  And Aryna’s serve faltered that day in windy conditions, striking eight double faults.  The American’s penetrating groundstrokes, especially her formidable backhand, have often drawn errors off Sabalenka during this rivalry.

The top seed has advanced extremely comfortably thus far, losing only 10 games across six sets.  Anisimova has also won all six of her sets, even in a close contest against Clara Tauson on Friday. 

In their first match at Roland Garros, Sabalenka is the favorite despite their shared history.  She is the clear-cut World No.1 for a reason, with a record of 37-6 this season, compared to 17-8 for Anisimova.  And Aryna is the much stronger performer on big stages: she has won her last nine matches in the round of 16 at Majors, as well as her last 10 at WTA 1000 level.  Sabalenka just has not been losing this early during big events.


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Ben Shelton (13) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (2) – Third on Court Philippe-Chatrier

As we’ve seen too often this year, Alcaraz provided a significant dip in form after easily winning the first two sets on Friday evening against Damir Dzumhur, losing the third set and eventually coming from a break down in the fourth to advance.  Regardless of such dips, he’s now 33-5 this season, and 30-2 on clay since the beginning of this tournament a year ago.

Shelton is 18-10 on the year, and 7-4 on clay.  Two of his four ATP finals have now come on this surface, after reaching the championship match in Munich this past April.  Here in Paris, he outlasted Lorenzo Sonego in a five-setter, before receiving a second round walkover, and then defeating Italy’s Matteo Gigante in straights on Friday.

Alcaraz is 2-0 against Shelton, and has never lost a set to the 22-year-old American, with both matches occurring on hard courts.  On this surface, Carlitos is an even stronger favorite to overcome Ben, and should advance rather comfortably.


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Lorenzo Musetti (8) vs. Holger Rune (10) – Not Before 8:15pm on Court Philippe-Chatrier

Across the past 52 weeks, Musetti has taken his career to another level, with his first Major semifinal, an Olympic bronze medal on these grounds, and reaching the semifinals or better at all three Masters 1000 tournaments on clay this season.  This is his third appearance in the fourth round of Roland Garros, as he looks to break more new ground by achieving his first quarterfinal here.  Lorenzo has only lost one of his first 10 sets this fortnight.

It’s been an odd and challenging year for Rune, as a continued battle with a viral illness caused him to retire during three different events.  But he did advance to the final of Indian Wells, as well as win the title in Barcelona.  He’s 20-11 this season, and needed to come back from two-sets-to-one down on Friday night against France’s Quentin Halys.  Holger has now reached the second week in all four of his appearances at the French Open, and is a two-time former quarterfinalist.

Rune has taken both of their previous meetings in straights: a match two years ago on grass, and a match last year on a hard court.  But in 2025, Musetti has clearly been the better player, and comes into this match with much more confidence than Rune.  So I favor the Italian to advance after an extended battle on Sunday evening.


Other Notable Matches on Sunday:

Alexei Popyrin (25) vs. Tommy Paul (12) – Paul has played 14 of a possible 15 sets to this stage, surviving back-to-back five-setters in the last two rounds against Marton Fucsovics and Karen Khachanov.  By contrast, Popyrin is yet to drop a set, though he’s also yet to face a top 40 player.  Paul leads their head-to-head 2-1, as both make their debuts in the round of 16 at Roland Garros.

Liudmila Samsonova (19) vs. Qinwen Zheng (8) – Qinwen and Samsonova are both yet to drop a set, and both are vying for their first Roland Garros quarterfinal.  Samsonova has claimed three of their five encounters, but their only clay court meeting went to Qinwen.

Frances Tiafoe (15) vs. Daniel Altmaier – Tiafoe is another player who won all the sets he contested during the first week, despite arriving in Paris with little form.  Altmaier has won all three of his matches in four sets, to match his best result at a Major.  Frances is 2-0 against Daniel, which includes a clay court victory two years ago in Rome.


Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.

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