Friday features the semifinals in men’s singles, as well as both the men’s and women’s doubles semifinals.
We are guaranteed a new Madrid Open champion in men’s singles. Friday’s semifinals see recent Indian Wells champion Jack Draper take on recent Monte Carlo runner-up Lorenzo Musetti, while three-time Major runner-up Casper Ruud faces Francisco Cerundolo, who is vying for his first Masters 1000 final.
Francisco Cerundolo (22) vs. Casper Ruud (14) – Not Before 4:00pm on Manolo Santana Stadium
This will their ninth meeting across the last four seasons. Cerundolo leads 5-3 overall, though they are tied at two-a-piece on clay. Six weeks ago on a hard court in Miami, Francisco easily prevailed 6-4, 6-2. But the last time they met on clay, during last summer’s Olympics, Ruud comfortably prevailed 6-3, 6-4.
Ruud is 19-6 this season, and 7-2 on clay, as he looks to round into his top form as he usually does during this time of year. He’s reached the semifinals or better in all of the last three years at Roland Garros, but he arrived in Madrid having failed to advance beyond the fourth round of a Major or Masters event ever since. And Casper has often stalled at this round of Masters 1000 tournaments, with a semifinal record of just 2-6. He’s now 10-4 lifetime in Madrid, after not dropping a set through four rounds this fortnight.
Cerundolo is vying to break new ground in his career, as this is just his second Masters semifinal, after going 1-5 previously in Masters quarterfinals. He is 24-9 during 2025, and 16-5 on clay, so he’s the player who has been in slightly better form this year, especially on this surface. Francisco has dropped only one set to this stage, as he came from a set down on Thursday against recent Miami champ Jakub Mensik, bringing his Madrid record to 7-2.
Cerundolo has earned a reputation of getting tight during big moments, and he’ll certainly be feeling some nerves as he tries to achieve the biggest final of his career. However, Ruud has been lacking of confidence of late, and the biggest weapon on the court will be Francisco’s forehand. Cerundolo has also enjoyed some loud support during this tournament from Argentines in the crowd. So I give Francisco the slight edge to advance to Sunday’s championship match.
Jack Draper (5) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (10) – Not Before 8:00pm on Manolo Santana Stadium
Both of these players are going to achieve career milestones on Monday, regardless of Friday’s result. Musetti will make his top 10 debut, and could surge as high as No.6 if he wins this title. Draper will make his top five debut, and could climb within 25 points of World No.4 Taylor Fritz if he wins this title.
The 23-year-old Brit is 18-4 on the year, having already earned his first Masters 1000 title at Indian Wells. And he’s now 25-5 since last October, when he won a 500-level title in Vienna. However, Jack remains an unproven commodity on clay, or at least he was until this fortnight. As per Tennis Abstract, he was just 10-12 on this surface before arriving in Madrid, where he is now yet to drop a set.
Similarly, the 23-year-old Italian is 16-5 this season, and is coming off his first Masters 1000 final just a few weeks ago in Monte Carlo. And like Draper, Musetti has also won all the sets he’s played during this event. Lorenzo is trying to follow-up on what was a breakthrough year in 2024, when he advanced to his first Major semifinal at Wimbledon, and won a bronze medal at the Paris Olympics.
Draper leads their head-to-head 3-0, though all three matches took place on hard courts. The altitude will favor the big-serving Brit, but on this surface, I like Musetti’s chances of reaching a second consecutive Masters 1000 final. The Italian is a much more accomplished clay court player, and his variety will be rewarded by the red clay.
Friday’s full Order of Play is here.
