Friday features the men’s singles semifinals, as well as the semifinals in women’s doubles.
Italian No.1 Jasmine Paolini has already secured her place in championship weekend in Rome, and on Friday, two other Italians have the chance to join her. Lorenzo Musetti and Jannik Sinner are each just one match away from an all-Italian final. But first, Musetti must overcome Carlos Alcaraz, while Sinner must overcome Tommy Paul.
Friday also provides the women’s doubles semifinals, which is headlined by a rematch from last summer’s Olympic gold medal match, with saw Paolini and her partner Sara Errani defeat Mirra Andreeva and Diana Shnaider.
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s two most prominent matches, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule. Friday’s play begins at 1:30pm local time.
Carlos Alcaraz (3) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (8) – Not Before 3:30pm on Campo Centrale
Alcaraz is now 28-5 on the year, and a near-perfect 13-1 on clay. His only loss on this surface was in the final of Barcelona to Holger Rune, in a match where Carlitos suffered a leg injury that forced him to miss Madrid. And despite currently dealing with multiple leg injuries, Alcaraz has dropped only one set through four matches in Rome. In the last round, he avenged a painful loss from the Indian Wells semifinals back in March against Jack Draper. Carlitos is 7-3 in Masters 1000 semifinals, and a perfect 3-0 on clay. Regardless of the results the rest of this week, he will reclaim the World No.2 ranking on Monday, which is extremely important ahead of the Roland Garros draw ceremony next Thursday.
For Musetti, this is a third consecutive Masters 1000 semifinal, which are also the first three Masters semifinals of his career. In the Monte Carlo semifinals, he beat Alex de Minaur in a third-set tiebreak, his fourth three-set win of the week, before running out of energy against Alcaraz in the final. In the Madrid semifinals, Lorenzo fell to Draper in straights. The 23-year-old Italian is now 20-6 this season, and a superb 14-2 on clay. He has not dropped a set to this stage of his home country’s biggest event.
Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 4-1 at tour level, and has claimed their last four meetings. It’s been nearly three years since Musetti defeated him, in the final of Hamburg back in 2022. And two of Carlitos’ victories over Lorenzo have come on clay, including the aforementioned clash last month in Monte Carlo.
The Spaniard would normally be a considerable favorite in this match, but neither his injuries nor the Italian crowd will be helping him on Friday afternoon. And unlike the Monte Carlo final, Musetti comes into this match fully fresh, and he took thr opening set from Alcaraz in that final before his body gave out. Plus, as impressive as Carlitos has been this year on clay, he’s experienced some big ups and downs in his level, even within the same match. So I actually like Lorenzo’s chances of pulling off the upset and reaching his second Masters 1000 final.
Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Tommy Paul (11) – Not Before 8:30pm on Campo Centrale
Sinner absolutely destroyed Madrid champion Casper Ruud on Thursday evening, losing just one game in what was the best individual performance by an ATP player all season. And it was only his fourth match after an over three-month layoff due to his failed drug tests from a year ago. Like his Italian counterpart in the men’s semifinals, Jannik is yet to drop a set, as he vies for his first final in Rome. Sinner is 6-4 in Masters semifinals, but he’s 0-2 on clay, with losses in Monte Carlo to both Holger Rune and Stefanos Tsitsipas.
As per the ATP, Paul is the first American man to achieve back-to-back Rome semifinals since Pete Sampras did so over 30 years ago. Last year, Tommy was upset in the semis by Nicolas Jarry. And the 27-year-old is 0-3 in Masters semifinals, with one of those losses coming two years ago in Canada at the hands of Sinner. Paul has dropped one set through four rounds, and has already taken out three seeded players (Machac, de Minaur, Hurkacz).
Overall Sinner is 3-1 against Paul, with Tommy’s only win occurring three years ago on grass. While Jannik’s level will certainly drop a bit from Thursday’s otherworldly tennis, he remains a significant favorite to advance to the Rome final.
Other Notable Matches on Friday:
Mirra Andreeva and Diana Shnaider (6) vs. Sara Errani and Jasmine Paolini (3) – In Paris last summer, the Italians came back from a set down to eventually prevail in a deciding-set tiebreak, and to secure the gold medal. Paolini and Shnaider competed in a dramatic singles quarterfinal just a few days ago, where Jasmine again came from a set down to win, and Diana did not appreciate how vociferously the Italian crowd was rooting against her.
Veronika Kudermetova and Elise Mertens vs. Storm Hunter and Ellen Perez – Kudermetova and Mertens already upset two top eight seeds, as they vie for their second consecutive WTA 1000 final, after narrowing losing the championship match in Madrid. Hunter actually won this title two years ago, when her partner was one of her opponents in this semifinal: Mertens.
Friday’s full Order of Play is here.
