Sunday features the championship matches in men’s singles, men’s doubles, and women’s doubles.
In Sunday’s men’s singles championship match, just a week before Roland Garros begins, we get a blockbuster final between the winners of the last five Majors. And as of this Monday, they will once again be the top two players in the world. It is the most compelling rivalry amongst tennis’ new generation, and they will play for the first time in nearly eight months.
Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (3) – Not Before 5:00pm on Campo Centrale
Sinner comes into this final on a 26-match winning streak, dating back to last October. Of course, he missed three months of this season due to his doping suspension, but Jannik has picked up right where he left off. He has only dropped one set through five matches, to Tommy Paul in Friday’s semifinals. And after dropping the first set, he stormed back to win 12 of the last 15 games. Sinner’s form despite a lack of match play has been quite intimidating. However, his last loss prior to this 26-match win streak came at the hands of his opponent on Sunday.
Alcaraz is 29-5 on the year, and 14-1 on clay. He’s been the dominant ATP player this clay court season, outside of a loss in the Barcelona final to Holger Rune, in a match where Carlitos suffered an injury which forced him to miss Madrid. Like Sinner, Alcaraz has dropped only one set in Rome, to Karen Khachanov three rounds ago. Alcaraz has appeared unhampered during this fortnight by what is now seemingly an injury on each of his legs.
Both men own excellent records in championship matches. Sinner is 19-5 in ATP finals, having claimed nine of his last 10, with the loss to Alcaraz in the final of Shanghai last fall his only recent loss. In Masters 1000 finals, Jannik is 4-2, and has won his last four, though this is his first 1000-level final on clay. Alcaraz is a nearly-identical 18-6 in ATP finals, and he’s a superb 6-1 in Masters 1000 finals, with his only loss coming in the epic 2023 Cincinnati final against Novak Djokovic.
So which man will win in their 25th ATP final appearance on Sunday? Well, Alcaraz leads their tour-level head-to-head 6-4, and also beat Sinner at a Challenger event on clay back in 2019. Most notably, Carlitos won all three of their 2024 meetings, though all three went the distance. The Indian Wells final went to 6-2 in the third, their Roland Garros semifinal went to 6-3 in the fifth, and the Shanghai final went all the way to a third-set tiebreak, in a match lasted nearly three-and-a-half hours. At tour level on clay, Sinner and Alcaraz are tied at 1-1, with the Italian having defeated the Spaniard three years ago in the final of Umag, in yet another match that went the distance.
This championship match feels like it has huge implications, with two Majors to be played within the next two months. The winner on Sunday should certainly be considered the favorite for Roland Garros. Alcaraz will be the defending champion in Paris, but he suffered some notable heartbreak there last summer, losing the gold medal match of the Olympics to Djokovic. And as successful as Carltios has been this spring on clay, his form this season has been pretty unsteady, with big lapses in his level occurring rather frequently.
Sinner’s dominant form this fortnight has been astounding considering he hadn’t played a match since January, and hadn’t played on clay in nearly a year. But Alcaraz is the one player in the world who can subdue Sinner when he’s playing with this level of confidence. So this will be the true test of just how ready Jannik is to win a Major after his inactivity, and especially a non-hard court Major, which he’s yet to win.
Of course the Italian crowd will be a significant factor on Sunday, as we’ve seen throughout this tournament, and no more so than in Saturday’s women’s singles championship match won by another Italian, Jasmine Paolini. Sinner has become a huge star in Italy: reportedly six million Italians tuned in for his semifinal on Friday, with millions more expected to watch this match on Sunday. That’s a lot of pressure and expectation to place on the shoulders of a 23-year-old, but the 10,000 Italian spectators inside Campo Centrale will also provide Jannik with plenty of energy.
This is an extremely tough match to call, but given their recent history, as well as Carlitos’ 26-2 record on clay across the past 52 weeks, I give Alcaraz the ever-so-slight edge to win his seventh Masters 1000 title on Sunday. His speed, aggression, and variety have proven to be the right mix to prevent Sinner from dictating play as he can against all other opposition, and the right mix to draw more errors out of the Italian.
Other Notable Matches on Sunday:
Sara Errani and Jasmine Paolini (3) vs. Veronika Kudermetova and Elise Mertens – Paolini is playing for her second title in as many days, after defeating Coco Gauff in straight sets on Saturday to win the women’s singles title. The Italians are the reigning Olympic gold medalists, and already claimed a WTA 1000 title earlier this season in Doha. Kudermetova and Mertens are playing for their first title of the year, after losing an extremely tight final two weeks ago in Madrid.
Marcelo Arevalo and Mate Pavic (1) vs. Sadio Doumbia and Fabien Reboul – Arevalo and Pavic lost in this final a year ago, but have won five titles since, including a Major as well as three at Masters 1000 level. This is the biggest final in the careers of the French team of Doumbia and Reboul, who already defeated both the No.2 seeds and the No.3 seeds in the last two rounds.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.
