Saturday features the championship match in women’s singles, as well as the semifinals in men’s doubles.
This is a second WTA 1000 final in as many events for Coco Gauff, after losing the championship match two weeks ago in Madrid to Aryna Sabalenka. On Saturday, she goes for her third WTA 1000 title, and her first on clay. On Monday, regardless of Saturday’s result, Gauff reclaims the World No.2 ranking, her career high, just in time for the Roland Garros draw.
This is a second WTA 1000 final in as many years for Jasmine Paolini, who catapulted her career to another level last season when she became the champion in Dubai. Paolini would go on to reach two Major finals later that season. With a victory on Saturday, she will reclaim the World No.4 ranking, and push Iga Swiatek to No.5, just in time for the Roland Garros draw.
Coco Gauff (4) vs. Jasmine Paolini (6) – Not Before 1:00pm on Campo Centrale
Gauff is 24-7 on the year, and 11-2 on clay, having claimed 10 of her last 11 matches. She’s dropped two sets through five matches this fortnight, including the second set in an over three-and-a-half hour semifinal on Thursday night against Qinwen Zheng. That match was a rather ugly one, to be frank, as both players struggled to end points in the slow conditions late at night. Coco is 2-1 in WTA 1000 finals, though she’s 0-1 on clay. And while she’s an excellent 9-2 in tour-level finals, her two losses have both some on this surface, with only one victory.
Paolini 21-8 this season, and 9-2 on clay. She suffered an early loss in Madrid at the hands of Maria Sakkari, in a match which saw Jasmine win only three games. But she has performed strongly under enormous pressure at her home country’s biggest event, with several comeback victories, including in the last two rounds against Diana Shnaider and Peyton Stearns. Paolini has only lost one set to this stage, to reach her second WTA 1000 final. She’s a strong 7-2 in tour-level finals, and 3-1 on clay.
Gauff leads their head-to-head 2-1, with victories back in 2021 and 2023 on hard courts. However, their only clay court meeting went to Paolini, which was just a few weeks ago in Stuttgart.
Some of these statistics would seem to indicate Jasmine is the favorite on this surface. But I think she’ll feel even more pressure in the final on Saturday in her home country, and she’s benefitted in the last few rounds from some inexperienced and physically depleted opponents handing her some points at crucial moments. While much younger than Paolini, Gauff is the more experienced big match player, and her serve and speed are huge advantages she possesses over the Italian. And Coco will benefit from having a day of rest after her exhausting semifinal. So I favor Coco to win her third WTA 1000 title on Saturday.
Other Notable Matches on Saturday:
Marcelo Arevalo and Mate Pavic (1) vs. Joe Salisbury and Neal Skupski – Arevalo and Pavic are vying for their fourth Masters 1000 final of the year, after winning back-to-back titles in Indian Wells and Miami, and losing the final two weeks ago in Madrid. Salisbury and Skupski are a new team this season who are still playing for their first title, after losing finals earlier this year in Doha and Barcelona.
Sadio Doumbia and Fabien Reboul and Harri Heliovaara and Henry Patten (2) – Heliovaara and Patten are the reigning Wimbledon and Australian Open champions, but are yet to reach a Masters 1000 final as a team. Doumbia and Reboul are a French team who already upset the third-seeded team of Kevin Krawietz and Tim Puetz in the quarterfinals.
Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.
