Tuesday features all eight round of 16 matches in men’s singles, as well as the beginning of the women’s singles quarterfinals.
The fourth round of men’s singles includes seven of the top eight seeds, making for some high-profile contests on Tuesday. Play on Campo Centrale is headlined by the winners of the last five Majors: Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. That court will also host the first two women’s singles quarterfinals: Italy’s Jasmine Paolini vs. Diana Shnaider, and Peyton Stearns vs. Elina Svitolina.
But the day’s most compelling matches may take place on Grand Stand Arena. In a battle between top 10 seeds, Italy’s Lorenzo Musetti takes on 2023 champion Daniil Medvedev. And in what has been a competitive and contentious rivalry, two-time and defending champ Alexander Zverev faces Arthur Fils.
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s two most prominent matches, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule. Tuesday’s play begins at 11:00am local time.
Lorenzo Musetti (8) vs. Daniil Medvedev (10) – Not Before 2:00pm on Grand Stand Arena
Musetti is 18-6 on the year, and a strong 12-2 on clay. He’s coming off a run to the final of Monte Carlo, and a run to the semis in Madrid. Here in Rome, he has easily advanced through his first two rounds, though he is a modest 7-4 at his home country’s biggest tournament.
Medvedev is a similar 18-9 this season, but just 6-2 on clay. While he was the champion of Rome in 2023, he’s failed to advance beyond the fourth round in his other four previous appearances. And Daniil remains in a title drought: his title here two years ago is his most recent ATP title.
Medvedev has claimed both their prior meetings, though both happened on North American hard courts. And both happened back in 2023, when Daniil was a stronger version of himself, and Lorenzo a lesser version of his current self. On a clay court in Italy, I like the variety and confidence of Musetti to prevail.
Arthur Fils (13) vs. Alexander Zverev (2) – Not Before 5:00pm on Grand Stand Arena
Zverev leads their head-to-head 3-2, though Fils has now taken two of their last three matchups, and the last four have all gone the distance. Last summer in Hamburg on clay, the Fils defeated Zverev in a third-set tiebreak, with Sascha (unrightfully) upset regarding a cramping Arthur using an underhand serve late in the match. Zverev would return the favor a few months later, by beating the Frenchman at the Paris Indoors. And most recently, less than two months ago in Miami, Arthur came from a set down to take out Sascha 6-3 in the third.
Zverev and Fils possess similar records this season (23-8 for Zverev, 19-9 for Fils). However, since Sascha lost his third Major final in Melbourne, he’s significantly underperformed. Outside of a title run in Munich, he’s failed to win more than two matches in a row since the Australian Open. During that same span, Arthur has achieved his first three Masters 1000 quarterfinals, and is now vying for his fourth out of the last five.
Fils mounted a spirited comeback against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the last round, while Zverev has comfortably advanced through two rounds without the loss of a set. But considering Sascha’s current form, and the fact that he only owns one top 20 victory since the Australian Open loss, I give Arthur the slight edge to even their head-to-head on Tuesday. Plus, Fils’s forehand has become one of the ATP’s most formidable weapons.
Other Notable Matches on Tuesday:
Karen Khachanov (23) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (3) – Alcaraz has looked rather sharp through two rounds, after missing Madrid due to injury. And he is 4-0 against Khachanov, having claimed all nine sets they’ve played.
Jasmine Paolini (6) vs. Diana Shnaider (13) – Neither player has not dropped a set through three rounds. Their only prior encounter occurred at last year’s Australian Open, where Paolini prevailed 6-3, 6-4.
Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Francisco Cerundolo (17) – Sinner has comfortably won his first two matches since January, though he’s yet to face a player ranked higher than 93rd in the world. Cerundolo has taken nine of this last 11 matches, but as per Tennis Abstract, hasn’t beaten a top five player not named Zverev in over two years. These players have split four previous meetings, and when they met at this same tournament two years ago, Francisco was victorious.
Peyton Stearns vs. Elina Svitolina (16) – Svitolina defeated another American, Danielle Collins, in straights on Monday. By contrast, Stearns has survived back-to-back final set tiebreaks to reach this stage, over Madison Keys and Naomi Osaka. This is a first-time matchup.
Tommy Paul (11) vs. Alex de Minaur (7) – De Minaur has dominated their head-to-head, owning a 5-0 edge, which includes victories on all three surfaces. When they met at this event back in 2022, the Australian won 7-5, 6-4.
Tuesday’s full Order of Play is here.
