Wednesday features the completion of the fourth round in the men’s singles draw, as well as all four women’s singles quarterfinals, as the tournament works to get back on schedule after Monday’s power outage.
This past January in the Australian Open semifinals, Madison Keys upset Iga Swiatek in a third-set tiebreak, after saving a match point earlier in the set. Keys would go on to win her maiden Major title, while Swiatek is still yet to reach a WTA final since last year’s Roland Garros. Wednesday’s play in Madrid begins with a rematch between Madison and Iga.
Later in the afternoon, we get another blockbuster WTA quarterfinal between top 10 players, as 2023 US Open champion Coco Gauff takes on two-time recent WTA 1000 champion Mirra Andreeva. Plus, Aryna Sabalenka and Elina Svitolina will both play their quarterfinals.
ATP fourth round singles action on Wednesday is headlined by two matchups between top 11 seeds: Alex de Minaur vs. Lorenzo Musetti, and Jack Draper vs. Tommy Paul.
Madison Keys (5) vs. Iga Swiatek (2) – 1:00pm on Manolo Santana Stadium
Swiatek is now 25-7 on the year, which is certainly far from a poor record. But she is still fighting to find her usual clay court form. Despite winning the first set on Tuesday over Diana Shnaider by a score of 6-0, the next two sets became quite complicated, with Iga eventually prevailing 6-4 in the third. And while she’s now advanced to the quarterfinals or better at all five WTA 1000 tournaments this season, Swiatek is yet to reach a final. So by the extremely high standard Iga set the last few seasons, she’s been struggling a bit, and is surely eager to achieve a big result ahead of Roland Garros.
Keys has not lost a set in her first three matches this fortnight, bringing her record this year to a strong 23-4. Outside of her Australian Open triumph, she won another title down under, in Adelaide. Madison also reached the semifinals in Indian Wells for the first time in her career. And while she’s just 10-10 lifetime in Madrid, she was a semifinalist here a year ago, and has now claimed seven of her last eight matches at this tournament.
Overall Swiatek leads their head-to-head 4-2, and is a decisive 3-0 on clay, with all three matches on this surface going to Iga in straight sets. However, this is their first clay court encounter in nearly a year, and both players’ games are currently in different places. Plus, the altitude in Madrid favors the power game of Keys. Swiatek should still be favored based on their clay court history, but I expect a tighter contest on Wednesday, and another Keys upset over Swiatek would not be surprising.
Mirra Andreeva (7) vs. Coco Gauff (4) – Not Before 3:00pm on Arantxa Sanchez Stadium
Gauff is 2-0 against Andreeva, with two victories at Majors back in 2023. At Roland Garros that year, Coco dropped the first set in a tiebreak, before storming back to take each of the next two sets by a score of 6-1. Later that year at the US Open, where Gauff would win her first Major title, Coco comfortably prevailed 6-3, 6-2 over Mirra.
But much like the day’s first quarterfinal between Swiatek and Keys, these two WTA standouts are in much different places than they were two years ago. During their first match in Paris, Andreeva became demonstrably frustrated all too quickly. Mirra was only 16-years-old at the time, and she’s worked closely with her team to mature on court. That work has paid off this season, with back-to-back WTA 1000 titles in Dubai and Indian Wells, and a record of 24-5. And she hasn’t dropped a set yet during this tournament.
By contrast, Gauff has underperformed of late at big events. She’s suffered some disappointing losses at Majors, and hasn’t been back to a Major final since the 2023 US Open. And this is actually her first WTA 1000 quarterfinal of the year, as Coco was only 4-4 at this level before arriving in Madrid. She has often committed a plethora of forehand errors, and struck many double faults. Yet on Monday, she scored a very impressive straight-set victory over Belinda Bencic, who had just defeated Gauff last month at Indian Wells.
Desptie that result, I favor Andreeva to score her first victory over Gauff on Wednesday. Her serve and backhand have developed into formidable weapons, and she’s been the more reliable performer this season.
Other Notable Matches on Wednesday:
Jack Draper (5) vs. Tommy Paul (11) – Draper has only needed to play three sets to advance through his first two rounds, as Matteo Berrettini was forced to retire after the first set on Tuesday. Paul has already survived two tight contests to this stage, against Joao Fonseca and Karen Khachanov. Jack is 3-2 against Tommy, though they’ve never played on clay.
Moyuka Uchijima vs. Elina Svitolina (17) – Svitolina is yet to drop a set through three matches, including a strong victory over Elena Rybakina. Uchijima has been the biggest surprise of this fortnight, and has already ousted three seeded players (Jabeur, Pegula, Alexandrova). Last summer in the Paris Olympics, Svitolina defeated Uchijima 6-2, 6-1.
Aryna Sabalenka (1) vs. Marta Kostyuk (24) – Sabalenka is now 20-4 lifetime in Madrid, as she looks to reach her fourth final out of the last five years. This is only a second WTA 1000 quarterfinal for Kostyuk, and she is 0-2 against Sabalenka, having never taken a set.
Alex de Minaur (6) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (10) – Neither man has dropped a set through two rounds, with Musetti notching a notable victory on Tuesday over Stefanos Tsitsipas. Lorenzo is 2-1 against Alex, having outlasted him in a third-set tiebreak just a few weeks ago in the Monte Carlo semifinals.
Wednesday’s full Order of Play is here.
