The men’s and women’s singles finals will be played on Sunday.
The day begins with Aryna Sabalenka playing for her eighth WTA 1000 title. She faces Mirra Andreeva, who is vying for her second WTA title in a row. Then the ATP singles final sees Holger Rune going for his second Masters 1000 title. He plays Jack Draper, who is in the biggest final of his career.
Aryna Sabalenka (1) vs. Mirra Andreeva (9) – 11:00am on Stadium 1
Last June in the Roland Garros quarterfinals, Andreeva upset Sabalenka 6-4 in the third to achieve her first Major semifinal. However, Aryna was far from 100% on that day, as she was battling a stomach bug and had been sick for days. And their other four matches have been decisively won by Sabalenka, including two this year down under, via set scores of 6-3, 6-2, 6-1, 6-2.
Yet less than two months after their last lopsided meeting, Andreeva is a different player. She’s now 18-3 on the year, and she’s on an 11-match winning streak, after winning her first WTA 1000 title in Dubai last month. During this run, she’s defeated both Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina twice, which includes a three-set victory over Iga in Friday’s semifinals. Her serve has never been more effective, nor has her backhand down the line, with she can redirect with ease.
Sabalenka’s record this season is almost identical to Andreeva’s, at 17-3. And Aryna has played like a woman on a mission this fortnight, not dropping a set through five rounds. On Friday night, she earned some satisfying revenge over Madison Keys from the Australian Open final, crushing Keys 6-0, 6-1. Overall Aryna is 7-3 in WTA 1000 finals, though she is 0-1 in Indian Wells finals, after losing two years ago to Rybakina.
But on Sunday, I like Sabalenka to win her first Indian Wells title. Outside of the Roland Garros matchup, Andreeva is yet to challenge Sabalenka when she’s fully healthy. And even though the courts in Indian Wells play differently than other hard courts, it’s still a hard court, and Aryna has been pretty dominant on this surface across the last few seasons.
Holger Rune (12) vs. Jack Draper (13) Not Before 2:00pm on Stadium 1
After losing seven consecutive semifinals, Rune broke that year-long streak by upsetting Daniil Medvedev on Saturday. And after reaching three Masters 1000 finals between November of 2022 and May of 2023, this is his first in nearly two years. Holger was only 6-6 this year before arriving in Indian Wells, yet he’s now defeated three top 20 players here (Rune, Tsitsipas, Medvedev).
Draper is 12-2 in 2025, and has taken nine of his last 10 matches, having reached the final of Doha just a few weeks ago. Jack didn’t drop a set through his first four rounds here, before upsetting two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz on Saturday. The British No.1 will make his top 10 debut on Monday regardless of Sunday’s result, and he is 2-3 in ATP finals to date.
Their only prior encounter occurred last summer in this same country, when Rune won 6-4, 6-2 in Cincinnati. And Holger certainly has the experience edge, having played multiple Masters finals in the past, and even winning one. Plus, Rune has claimed his last nine matches against lefties, though none of them were ranked as highly as his opponent on Sunday.
However, Draper’s level of play is currently higher than that of Rune’s. Jack’s combined serving and returning prowess puts constant pressure on his opponents, and both of those skills are better than Holger’s. Draper uses his lefty serve extremely effectively, and as per Tennis Channel, he was one of the tour leaders in breaking serve during the 2024 season. As long as Jack can avoid an emotional letdown just 24 hours after a monumental win over Alcaraz, I favor Draper to win the biggest title of his career on Sunday.
