The round of 16 concludes on Monday in Melbourne.
It wasn’t too long ago when Holger Rune proclaimed that himself, Carlos Alcaraz, and Jannik Sinner were the three players of the new generation who were going to take over the tennis world. Alcaraz and Sinner have certainly done so, but Rune most certainly has not, and has spent most of the past year ranked outside the top 10. On Monday, Holger gets the opportunity to finally back up those words when he faces Sinner in the fourth round.
Day 9 also sees a battle between two of the ATP’s most exciting performers, as Ben Shelton takes on Gael Monfils. Plus, in a battle between two of the WTA’ biggest hitters, Elena Rybakina goes up against Madison Keys. And in a battle between two top 10 seeds, Emma Navarro plays Daria Kasatkina.
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s four most prominent matches, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule. Monday’s play gets underway at 11:00am local time.
Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Holger Rune (13) – Not Before 2:00pm on Rod Laver Arena
Across the past 18 months, Sinner has unquestionably been the best ATP player. Since the start of Wimbledon in July of 2023, he is 108-11, with 11 titles, and an 11-2 record in finals. 10 of those 11 titles have come on hard courts, and Jannik is now on a 17-match winning streak at hard court Majors, as he looks to defend his first Major title.
While Rune has not ascended alongside Sinner or Alcaraz, he’s not plummeted down the rankings either. Holger recorded nearly identical records in 2023 and 2024 of 44-24 and 45-23. However, it’s been 18 months since he has advanced to a Slam quarterfinal, and within that same span, he’s only achieved one ATP final, which he lost. So the 21-year-old has unquestionably underperformed at big events, and even in the latter stages of small events. As per Tennis Abstract, Rune went 1-7 last season in semifinals, and hasn’t won in that round for over a year.
The head-to-head between these two players is split at two apiece, with Rune taking their first two meetings, and Sinner taking the last two. All four of those matches have gone the distance, though this is their first one at a Major. In the last two rounds, Holger played some of his best tennis in quite awhile, taking out Matteo Berrettini in four, and Miomir Kecmanovic in five. But his tennis is still not at the level of Jannik’s, particularly on this surface, and the World No.1 remains the favorite on Monday afternoon.
Elena Rybakina (6) vs. Madison Keys (19) – Not Before 2:00pm on Margaret Court Arena
Rybakina is yet to drop a set, but she suffered a lower back injury in the last round against Dayana Yastremska, and was clearly hampered by it. After the match, Elena sounded doubtful regarding her prospects for the rest of the tournament due to the injury, and she’s a player who has unfortunately withdrawn or retired from so many events of late.
Keys is off to a 10-1 start to her season, as she so often excels down under. Newly-married and showing off a revised service motion, Madison is now on an eight-match win streak. She won the title in Adelaide just a few days prior to this fortnight, and has lost just one set through three rounds here, including a straight-set victory over tenth-seeded Danielle Collins.
They have split four prior encounters, with Rybakina claiming the most recent two. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Elena withdraws before this match even begins. And even if she doesn’t, an in-form Keys is still the favorite over a physically-compromised Rybakina.
Gael Monfils vs. Ben Shelton (21) – Third on Margaret Court Arena
Like Keys, Monfils has enjoyed a terrific start to his 2025. In Auckland, the 38-year-old won his first ATP title in over a year, and has played his best tennis in years during the first week of this event. Gael survived a five-setter against big-serving fellow Frenchman, and upset recent US Open finalist Taylor Fritz in the last round.
Now Monfils faces another young big server in Shelton, who overcame Lorenzo Musetti on Saturday in a tight four-setter. Ben accumulated 42 match wins during 2024, yet failed to advance beyond this round at a Major, after doing so twice during his 2023 breakout season. But the 22-year-old American seems to be shaking off his sophomore slump at the Slams, and has upped his level at critical moments of his first three matches in Melbourne.
Their first career encounter provides a stark contrast in styles, with the speed and flair of Monfils against the unbridled power of Shelton. And both players will be feeling extra pressure on Monday, as they’ll know the winner will be a strong favorite in the quarterfinals against either Lorenzo Sonego or Learner Tien. As impressive as Gael’s level has been these past few weeks, I expect it will be tough for him to maintain on Monday, especially coming off such a huge win against the fourth seed. I give the slight edge to Ben in what should be an extremely tight and entertaining contest.
Emma Navarro (8) vs. Daria Kasatkina (9) – Not Before 4:30pm on John Cain Arena
Navarro has already survived a trio of three-setters, including a most compelling match in the last round over Ons Jabeur. Now she faces a player with almost just as much variety as Jabeur in Kasatkina, who had advanced comfortably through three rounds, without the loss of a set.
Kasatkina won 40 matches last year, and advanced to six finals. However, she went just 5-4 at the Majors, with only one third round appearance. Daria hasn’t been to a Major quarterfinal in nearly three years, and has never reached that round of a Slam on a hard court.
In another first-time meeting on Monday, Navarro should be favored. She’s been so reliable at big events this past year, as she vies for her third straight Slam quarterfinal. And if this match goes the distance like her first three rounds, Tennis Abstract tells us Emma is 24-10 in three-setters since the start of 2024, as she’s one of the sport’s best at maintaining her composure under any circumstances.
Other Notable Matches on Monday:
Veronika Kudermetova vs. Elina Svitolina (28) – Svitolina upset fourth-seeded Jasmine Paolini in the last round, while Kudermetova has already taken out two seeded players (Boulter, Haddad Maia). Veronika leads Elina 2-0, though both matches have been decided by extended third sets.
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Learner Tien (Q) – 19-year-old Tien has been one of many breakout teenagers of this fortnight, upsetting Daniil Medvedev in a long five-setter, then backing that victory up with a straight-set win over Corentin Moutet. Sonego already eliminated another of the breakout teenagers, Joao Fonseca.
Eva Lys (LL) vs. Iga Swiatek (2) – As per usual, the Swiatek bakery has been handing out bagels and breadsticks during the first week, most recently thumping Emma Raducanu 6-1, 6-0. As per OptaAce on Twitter, Eva Lys is the first lucky loser in women’s singles to advance this far at the Australian Open since the event moved to Melbourne Park in 1988. But three years ago in Stuttgart on clay, Iga provided Eva with two breadsticks, in a 6-1, 6-1 victory.
Alex Michelsen vs. Alex de Minaur (8) – De Minaur has dropped just one set to this stage, as he vies for his fourth consecutive Major quarterfinal. 20-year-old Michelsen is another young player enjoying a Major breakout at this tournament, as he already took out both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Karen Khachanov. The Alexes split two meetings during 2024, though their hard court encounter went to Michelsen.
Monday’s full Order of Play is here.
