Third round singles action commences on Friday in Melbourne.
We are just one round away from a potential blockbuster fourth round matchup between Coco Gauff and Naomi Osaka. But first, both must advance beyond considerable opponents on Friday. Gauff plays US Open runner-up Leylah Fernandez, while Osaka faces Olympic gold medalist Belinda Bencic.
On the first day of the fortnight when seeds start to collide, there are plenty of other intriguing matchups on the schedule. Olympic silver medalist Donna Vekic takes on a four-time WTA Champion from 2024, Diana Shnaider. In a battle between the top two Frenchmen, Ugo Humbert goes up against Arthur Fils. Plus, Major champions Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, and Aryna Sabalenka all play their third round matches.
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s four most prominent matches, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule. Friday’s play gets underway at 11:00am local time.
Diana Shnaider (12) vs. Donna Vekic (18) – 11:30am on Margaret Court Arena
A year ago, Shnaider was ranked outside the world’s top 100. But following a tremendous 2024 season, where she won 55 matches at all levels and won four WTA titles on three different surfaces, the 20-year-old is now on the verge of the world’s top 10. The lefty is yet to drop a set, after defeating Australia’s Ajla Tomljanovic in the last round.
Vekic also had a notable 2024 season, reaching her first Major semifinal at Wimbledon, and winning the silver medal in women’s singles at the Paris Olympics. However, Donna got off to an 0-3 start this season, losing all three matches she played during the United Cup. And she required three sets to overcome a lucky loser ranked outside the top 100 on Wednesday.
This is a rematch from the final of Bad Homburg just a few days before Wimbledon last summer, when Shnaider prevailed 6-3 in the third. Diana comes into this match the more in-form player, so I like her chances to prevail again on Friday. Plus, as per Tennis Absract, Vekic is just 2-4 in her last six matches against lefties.
Naomi Osaka vs. Belinda Bencic – Not Before 5:00pm on John Cain Arena
This is a highly-anticipated third round encounter between two relatively new mothers. Osaka has now been back on tour for over a year after giving birth to her first child, but this is only Bencic’s third WTA event since giving birth to hers.
They met three times back in 2019, with all three matches going to Belinda, including a straight-set victory in the round of 16 at the US Open, when Naomi was the defending champion. Their only encounter in recent years occurred in 2022, when Osaka earned her first tour-level victory over Bencic in the Miami semifinals.
In their previous matchups, Belinda has been successful in absorbing Naomi’s power and redirecting the ball to positions on the court outside of Osaka’s striking zone. But coming off two impressive three-set wins this week over Caroline Garcia and Karolina Muchova, I expect Naomi to be confidently striking the ball, and controlling the rallies on this fast-playing surface. And considering Bencic has just returned to the WTA tour within the past few weeks, Osaka should be favored to advance.
Coco Gauff (3) vs. Leylah Fernandez (30) – 7:00pm on Margaret Court Arena
These players collided just a few weeks ago during the United Cup, their first career meeting, which Gauff comfortably claimed 6-3, 6-2. Since failing to defend her US Open title, and making changes to her coaching team as well as her service motion, Coco has been a different player. She won the title in Beijing, reached the semis of Wuhan, won the WTA Finals, and won the United Cup. Coco has now claimed 20 of her last 22 matches.
Ever since suffering a foot fracture during a quarterfinal run at Roland Garros in 2022, Fernandez has not been able to rediscover the same level. This is only the second time she’s advanced to the third round of a Major since that injury, and she notably didn’t face a player ranked higher than No.100 in her first two rounds here. And without much in game that can threaten an in-form Coco, Leylah is a significant underdog on Friday evening.
Ugo Humbert (14) vs. Arthur Fils (20) – Last on John Cain Arena
Humbert has rather quietly ascended to a ranking of No.14, as he is yet to advance beyond the fourth round at a Major in his career, and went just 6-4 at Majors last season. But Ugo won two titles last winter, and the Frenchman achieved his first Masters 1000 final in Paris, highlighted by an upset over Carlos Alcaraz. He has not lost a set through two rounds.
Fils has survived a pair of four-setters to this stage, and like Humbert, most of his ranking points have come from outside the big events. He’s only once reached the fourth round at a Major, and is yet to go beyond the third round at a Masters event. Arthur won two 500-level tournaments during 2024, one of which came in a dramatic final against Humbert.
That final was an over three-hour three-setter this past October in Tokyo, where Fils saved a championship point during the second set to come back and defeat Humbert. However, Ugo took their prior three tour-level contests. In what will likely be another extended battle, I favor Fils on this day. The 20-year-old feels due for a breakthrough at a big event, and his comeback victory in the Tokyo final will surely be on both players’ minds.
Other Notable Matches on Friday:
Aryna Sabalenka (1) vs. Clara Tauson – Sabalenka is now on a 16-match win streak at this event, and hasn’t dropped a set in Melbourne since the 2023 final. Tauson is a 22-year-old from Denmark who is coming off a title run two weeks ago in Auckland.
Paula Badosa (11) vs. Marta Kostyuk (17) – Kostyuk was a quarterfinalist here a year ago, while Badosa was a quarterfinalist at the last Major. Paula leads their head-to-head 3-1 overall, and 2-0 on hard courts.
Jacob Fearnley vs. Alexander Zverev (2) – Zverev is yet to drop a set. 23-year-old Fearnley went 43-9 last season at all levels, going 5-0 in Futures and Challenger finals.
Nuno Borges vs. Carlos Alcaraz (3) – Alcaraz simply crushed Yoshihito Nishioka on Wednesday, in a three-set match that lasted only 81 minutes. Borges has reached the fourth round at the last two hard court Slams, but he is 0-1 against Carlitos, who defeated him 6-3, 6-1 in Barcelona on clay back in 2023.
Novak Djokovic (7) vs. Tomas Machac (26) – Djokovic dropped a set on Wednesday for the second match in a row, and appeared to be dealing with some sort of hip issue. He has split two meetings with Machac within the past two years, most recently losing to Tomas last May on clay.
Olga Danilovic vs. Jessica Pegula (7) – Pegula has dropped just nine games through four sets, in her first Major since advancing to the final of the US Open. Danilovic is a 23-year-old Serbian who ended 2024 by winning two titles: one ITF title and one WTA title.
Friday’s full Order of Play is here.
