The women’s singles final will be played on Saturday night in Melbourne.
Aryna Sabalenka has become a force in this sport. She is vying for her fourth Major out of the last nine, all on hard courts. Her dominance on this surface is rivaling that of Iga Swiatek’s on clay. Aryna is also vying to be the first woman to three-peat at the Australian Open since Martina Hingis in 1999.
Madison Keys first reached a Major final at the 2017 US Open, and waited over seven years to reach another. But after changing her racquet and strings during the offseason, Keys is playing the best tennis of her career. Now she looks to avenge what was an extremely painful loss to Sabalenka in the semifinals of the 2023 US Open.
Also on Day 14, the men’s doubles championship will be decided, as it’s Simone Bolelli and Andrea Vavassori (3) vs. Harri Heliovaara and Henry Patten (6). Bolelli won this event 10 years ago alongside another Italian, Fabio Fognini. Bolelli and Vavassori were the runners-up last year at both this event as well as Roland Garros. Heliovaara and Patten were the surprise champions at Wimbledon last summer.
Aryna Sabalenka (1) vs. Madison Keys (19) – 7:30pm on Rod Laver Arena
Sabalenka is now 11-0 to start the season, coming off a title run in Brisbane. She’s dropped just three sets in her first 11 matches of 2025. And Aryna is now on a 20-match win streak at hard court Majors, as well as at this event specifically. In Major finals, she is 3-1, with the only loss to Coco Gauff at the 2023 US Open.
Keys lost the US Open final eight years ago to Sloane Stephens. In the years that followed, she advanced to four more Major semifinals, yet lost them all. The most recent one had come 16 months ago in New York against Sabalenka, where Keys failed to close out the match despite winning the first set 6-0, and serving for the match at 5-4 in the second.
Coming into Thursday’s semifinal with plenty of scar tissue in Major semis, and with just a 1-5 record, Madison played the match of her life, and arguably the match of the fortnight. In a thrilling and extremely high-quality semifinal against Iga Swiatek, Keys persisted at crucial moments where in the past she hesitated, even saving a match point before eventually prevailing in a final-set tiebreak. This is a new, more confident and comfortable version of Madison Keys, which was so nice to see.
Sabalenka also previously had a reputation for choking in big matches, with a 1-5 record of her own in Major semis. And it was only a few years ago where she arrived in Australia with some terrible service issues, double faulting dozens of times within a match, and even resorting to serving underhand just to get the ball in. But Aryna is now the most confident version of herself that we’ve seen, and she has claimed her last four Major semifinals.
In this classic example of what Mary Carillo once coined “Big Babe Tennis,” describing two big-hitting WTA players, their head-to-head stands at 4-1 in Sabalenka’s favor, and 3-0 on hard courts. Most recently, Aryna defeated Madison in straight sets just a few months ago in Beijing.
I am curious to see how this new-and-improved Keys performs in her second Major final, and I expect she may play rather freely knowing she is an underdog. Yet defeating Sabalenka on a hart court has become one of the WTA’s tallest tasks, as is defeating the World No.1 just two nights after such a monumental win over the World No.2.
Madison’s power gives her a chance against nearly any opponent. But Aryna’s power easily matches hers, and Keys will surely be feeling a bit depleted for this final, as she’s now contested three consecutive three-setters. Sabalenka is the clear favorite to three-peat on Saturday.
Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.
