The quarterfinals conclude on Wednesday in New York.
This past January in Melbourne, Jannik Sinner came from two sets down against Daniil Medvedev in the championship match of the Australian Open to win his first Major title. Six months later in the Wimbledon quarterfinals, Medvedev avenged that loss in another five-setter. On Wednesday night, they meet again in a blockbuster quarterfinal between the only two men remaining who have won a Major.
Day 10’s other ATP singles quarterfinal sees Alex de Minaur and Jack Draper battle it out to achieve their first Major semifinal.
On the women’s side, top-seeded Iga Swiatek faces Toronto champion Jessica Pegula in a rematch from the same round in 2022. Earlier in the day, Beatriz Haddad Maia and Karolina Muchova square off to fill the other semifinal spot.
twitter.com/usopen
Beatriz Haddad Maia (22) vs. Karolina Muchova – 12:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
Muchova is trying to reach the US Open semifinals for the second straight year, and her fourth Major semifinal overall. Through four rounds, she has arguably been the best player in the women’s singles draw. Karolina is yet to drop a set, and in the last round against the runner-up at the last two Majors, Jasmine Paolini, Muchova lost only five points on her serve. Finally healthy again after missing most of the past year due to wrist surgery, Karolina has been placing her serve excellently, as well as backing it up with an aggressive array of variety.
This is a second Major quarterfinal for Haddad Maia, who was a semifinalist a year ago in Paris. Prior to the WTA 250 event two weeks ago in Cleveland, Beatriz actually had a losing record this season. But after advancing to the Cleveland final with four match wins, she’s won another four matches in New York, including a three-set battle on Monday against Caroline Wozniacki. Haddad Maia effectively utilized her left-handed serve with topspin short in the service box to close out that tight contest.
Muchova leads their head-to-head 2-0, with a hard court victory in both 2022 and 2023. When they play in 2024, Karolina is again the favorite, as it would require a significant dip in her level to prevent her from returning to the semifinals.
twitter.com/usopen
Jack Draper (25) vs. Alex de Minaur (10) – Second on Arthur Ashe Stadium
This is a huge opportunity for one of these players to break new ground in their career, in what was the Alcaraz/Hurkacz quarter of the draw. Whichever man better handles the occasion, as well as better acclimates to playing on tennis’ biggest court for the first time this fortnight, will be the man to reach their first Slam semifinal.
De Minaur is 3-0 against Draper, though all three matches have been tight. The Aussie prevailed in four sets two years ago at Wimbledon, in a third-set tiebreak last year in Tokyo, and in three sets this year in Acapulco, where the Brit retired down 4-0 in the third.
Alex also has the definitive advantage in experience, as this is his fourth Major quarterfinal, while it is a first for 22-year-old Jack. It’s also a third consecutive Major quarterfinal for de Minaur, who unfortunately had to withdraw in this round of Wimbledon due to injury. But the tenth seed has played well in his first tournament since The Championships, losing three sets to this stage.
However, Draper is yet to drop a set, and has pretty much dominated thus far, allowing his opponents an average of just over two games per set. And he’s only been broken once across four matches. Jack is also coming off a quarterfinal run in Cincinnati, where he upset both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Felix Auger-Aliassime. So while De Minaur may be the favorite on paper, I actually give the slight edge to Draper on Wednesday afternoon, as playing during the warmest part of the day will only further empower Jack’s serve. And unlike Alex, the Major quarterfinal debutante doesn’t have any scar tissue in this round to overcome.
twitter.com/usopen
Iga Swiatek (1) vs. Jessica Pegula (6) – 7:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
Speaking of scar tissue, Pegula is now 0-6 in quarterfinals at this level, but the 30-year-old American is perhaps playing the best tennis of her career this summer, as she reached the finals of both Canada and Cincinnati, winning the title in Canada. Jess has rather comfortably claimed all eight sets she’s played during this tournament, and while she’s lost six of her nine matches against Iga, the sixth seed has taken two of the last four.
But Swiatek’s last few victories over Pegula have been extremely decisive, featuring set scores of 6-3, 6-0, 6-1, and 6-0. Iga is the best frontrunner this sport currently offers, so Jess can ill afford to fall behind early. Swiatek has also not lost a set to this stage, and is now 59-7 on the year. And unlike Jess, Iga has plenty of experience in the last two rounds of Slams, thanks to a 6-2 record in Major quarterfinals.
I expect an uber-confident Pegula to make this a competitive affair. But achieving such a huge milestone that you’ve failed to achieve so many times before, against the world’s best player who does almost everything better than you, is an extremely big ask. Swiatek remains the favorite to reach her second US Open semifinal.
twitter.com/usopen
Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Daniil Medvedev (5) – Last an Arthur Ashe Stadium
I was not sure what to expect from Sinner after news broke days before this tournament of his drug test failures from earlier this year (of which he was cleared of any negligence). Yet since a bad first set in his opening round, Jannik has played superbly, taking his last 12 sets. The Italian has only lost two of the 34 matches he’s played this year on hard courts, and after early losses by both Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, he is a prohibitive favorite to win this title.
But this is the biggest hurdle Sinner will face during this event, as Medvedev won this title in 2021, and is a six-time finalist at hard court Majors. It’s been a surprisingly subpar season for Daniil, who has uncharacteristically not won a title. And he arrived in New York on a three-match losing streak, amidst reports that he had been dealing with an undisclosed injury. Yet just like Sinner, Medvedev has advanced to this quarterfinal with the loss of only one set, and has improved his level with each passing round.
You can split their shared history into two parts. Daniil claimed their first six meetings, but starting last fall in Beijing, Jannik claimed the next five. However, two months ago at Wimbledon, Medvedev bucked the trend and defeated Sinner, though Jannik was not 100% physically for that match. And we now know he wasn’t 100% mentally either, as he was fighting behind closed doors to not be suspended for his drug test failures. With that issue seemingly behind him, and considering how almost unbeatable Sinner has been during the past 12 months on this surface, I like Jannik’s chances of advancing to his first US Open semifinal.
Other Notable Matches on Wednesday:
Hao-Ching Chan and Veronika Kudermetova (10) vs. Lyudmyla Kichenok and Jelena Ostapenko (7) – This is the first of two women’s doubles semifinals. Hao-Ching and Kudermetova knocked out the top seeds Dabrowski and Routliffe in the last round, while Kichenok and Ostapenko are yet to drop a set, as they vie for their second Major final of the year.
Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend (3) vs. Kristina Mladenovic and Shuai Zhang – Siniakova and Townsend are playing for the second consecutive Major final, after winning Wimbledon earlier this summer. Mladenovic and Shuai upset the second seeds Su-Wei Hsieh and Elise Mertens in the first round.
Wednesday’s full Order of Play is here.
