The quarterfinals begin on Tuesday in New York.
This past January in Melbourne, Aryna Sabalenka defeated Qinwen Zheng 6-3, 6-2 in the Australian Open final to claim her second Major title. On Tuesday, they will square off again in the US Open quarterfinals. Day 9’s other women’s singles quarterfinal sees American Emma Navarro face a red-hot Paula Badosa.
On the men’s side, we are one round away from a potential all-American semifinal. But first, those two Americans must overcome top 10 seeds. Taylor Fritz plays two-time Major runner-up Alexander Zverev, while Frances Tiafoe takes on three-time Major semifinalist Grigor Dimitrov.
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Paula Badosa (26) vs. Emma Navarro (13) – 12:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
This is the second Major in a row where Navarro has ousted Coco Gauff in the round of 16. At Wimbledon, Emma went on to lose rather meekly in the next round to Jasmine Paolini, by a score of 6-2, 6-1. Now the 23-year-old American plays her second Major quarterfinal, and tries to advance a step farther.
For Badosa, this is also a second Major quarterfinal, with the first coming over three years ago at Roland Garros. Paula had lost four times in a row in the round of 16 at a Slam, yet she’s now capped off a resurgent summer by returning to this stage. Paula had been dealing with a debilitating back injury for some time, but is back to good health, resulting in a title run in Washington, a semifinal run in Cincinnati, and now this quarterfinal run in New York.
Which player will achieve their first Major semifinal? Their only previous meeting took place a few months ago on clay in Rome, where Badosa prevailed in three sets. And with the Spaniard’s level increasing dramatically since May, I favor Paula to be victorious again on Tuesday afternoon.
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Taylor Fritz (12) vs. Alexander Zverev (4) – Not Before 1:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
This is a rematch from the round of 16 at Wimbledon, where Fritz came back from two sets down to beat Zverev in five. When they shook hands at the net, Sascha complained to Taylor regarding the American’s team cheering too loudly during the match. Then Zverev walked into press and blamed the loss on his injured knee, one of many recent instances of the German making excuses following a loss. So there are definitely some bitter feelings between these two, or at least coming from Sascha.
Overall Zverev is 5-4 against Fritz, though the American leads 3-2 on hard courts. And Taylor has been the better player during this fortnight, dropping only one set compared to Sascha’s three, though both men have been serving well. Breaks may be hard to come by in this contest, so first serve percentages will be crucial, as will converting break points when they are earned.
But the biggest difference between these two players is prior experience at this stage of Majors. Zverev is 8-5 in Major quarterfinals, and has claimed six of his last seven. Fritz is 0-4 in Major quarterfinals, and is coming off a disappointing loss in this round of Wimbledon to Lorenzo Musetti in five sets. So much like Andrey Rublev and Jessica Pegula, Major quarterfinals are becoming a mental stumbling block for Taylor.
However, it feels as if Fritz is primed for a breakthrough, especially in front of a passionate American crowd. I give Taylor the slight edge to become another first-time Major semifinalist on Tuesday.
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Qinwen Zheng (7) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (2) – 7:00pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium
In addition to the championship match this year in Melbourne, they also played in this same round of this same tournament a year ago, with Sabalenka winning that match with the allowance of only five games, just as she did in Australia. But following her gold medal performance in Paris, Qinwen is boasting more confidence than ever. Can she take more than five games from Aryna in this quarterfinal?
Her last match was certainly not good preparation for this, as Qinwen’s Olympic gold medal rematch against Donna Vekic lasted nearly three hours, and ended after 2:00am local time. Three of Zheng’s four matches thus far have gone the distance, while by contrast, Aryna has only lost one set. In the last round against Elise Mertens, 41 of the 131 points in the match were ended by a Sabalenka winner, which is nearly one third.
When the two-time reigning Australian Open champion is striking the ball that assuredly, she’s the best hard court player the WTA has to offer. Aryna is currently on a nine-match win streak, and has reached the US Open semifinals in each of the last three years. So while I fully expect Qinwen to win more than five games this time around, Sabalenka is still the favorite.
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Grigor Dimitrov (9) vs. Frances Tiafoe (20) – Last an Arthur Ashe Stadium
This is a third consecutive quarterfinal in New York for Tiafoe, who followed up his five-set victory over Ben Shelton with a four-set one over Djokovic-conqueror Alexei Popyrin. After losing his self-belief in the quarterfinals here a year ago, Frances has fought to get it back, with the help of his new coach, David Wiit. This 26-year-old is 1-2 in this round of Slams, with the sole victory coming two years ago here against Andrey Rublev.
Dimitrov outlasted Rublev in the last round, despite forfeiting a two-sets-to-love lead. Grigor claimed his first three matches in straight sets. The past year has been a revival for the career of the 33-year-old, as he returned to the top 10 for the first time since 2018. The Bulgarian is 3-4 in Slam quarterfinals, and like the American, is vying for his second semifinal at this event.
Dimitrov is 3-1 against Tiafoe, with Frances’ only win coming five years ago in the fourth round of the Australian Open, which was a huge breakthrough for Tiafoe, reaching his first Major quarterfinal. The 2024 version of Grigor is much improved over the 2019 version, but in a night match on Ashe Stadium, I’m backing Frances. He loves playing the night session at big American events such as this, and embraces this stage better than most other players.
Tuesday’s full Order of Play is here.
