Day 10 at The Championships hosts the last four singles quarterfinals.
Despite having knee surgery less than a month before the beginning of this fortnight, Novak Djokovic is just three matches away from his milestone 25th Major singles title. In Wednesday’s quarterfinals, he faces Alex de Minaur, who owns a victory over Djokovic this season, but also appeared to sustain an injury of his own at the end of his fourth round match on Monday. The winner will face either Taylor Fritz or Lorenzo Musetti, who will square off on Day 10 as both vie for their first Major semifinal.
Following Coco Gauff’s exit in the last round,2022 champion Elena Rybakina became a significant favorite to win her second Wimbledon title. On Wednesday, she plays Elina Svitolina, who has advanced to the semifinals in two of her last three appearances at The Championships. The other ladies’ singles quarterfinal is a collision between two Roland Garros champions: Jelena Ostapenko and Barbora Krejcikova.
Jelena Ostapenko on Monday (twitter.com/Wimbledon)
Jelena Ostapenko (13) vs. Barbora Krejcikova (31) – 1:00pm on No.1 Court
Through four rounds, Ostapenko has been utterly dominant, dropping just 15 games across eight sets. She’s now 28-12 on the year, having captured two titles early in the season, in Adelaide and Linz. This is a sixth Major quarterfinal for Jelena, a round in which she holds a record of 2-3. And she’s now 20-8 at Wimbledon, which despite her Roland Garros title, is her best Major by far.
Krejcikova has only lost one set to this stage, most notably upsetting the 11th seed, Danielle Collins, in the last round. She is just 11-9 this season, as Barbora battled a back injury earlier in the year. This is a fifth Major quarterfinal for Krejcikova, and she’s only 1-3 to date, having lost her last three. And while this is the farthest she has ever advanced at The Championships in singles, she’s twice won this event in doubles.
Both of these players are still alive in both ladies’ singles and ladies’ doubles, so each has won between 6-7 matches across the two disciplines this fortnight. In singles, Ostapenko leads Krejcikova 5-2 at all levels, and 3-2 within the past four seasons at WTA level. Jelena has taken their last three meetings, all in straight sets, and on three different surfaces, most recently a year ago on grass in the final of Birmingham.
As per IBM, Ostapenko has run considerably less per point than any other player remaining, dictating play from the baseline with her aggressive groundstrokes. And when she’s striking the ball this confidently, she’s one of the sport’s toughest players to beat. Ostapenko should be favored to achieve her second career Wimbledon semifinal.
(twitter.com/Wimbledon)
Elena Rybakina (4) vs. Elina Svitolina (21) – 1:30pm on Centre Court
Svitolina was not able or interested in hiding how emotional she was before, during, or after her round of 16 win on Monday, following news of the latest unprovoked attack by Russian on Ukraine, which included a missile strike on a children’s hospital. And while Rybakina represents Kazakhstan, she was born and raised in Russia. So unfortunately for both players, there are political undertones to this match, as well as emotions that go well beyond the tennis court.
Rybakina is now 39-7 this season, and with her win on Monday, is 18-2 at The Championship, making her one of three women to own a 90% or better winning percentage at this event, along with Steffi Graf and Ann Jones. Svitolina is a modest 22-12 in 2024, but at the Majors, she’s 10-2, having advanced to the second week at all three thus far. Both players have lost one set through four rounds.
They have also split four previous meetings, all within the last four years. Their only grass court matchup, three years ago in Eastbourne, went to Rybakina in straights. Just a few weeks later in the bronze medal match at the Tokyo Olympics, Svitolina came from a set down to win in three, denying Rybakina a spot on the podium. And just a month ago at Roland Garros, Rybakina prevailed 6-4, 6-3.
Svitolina will certainly be inspired to win on her country’s behalf on Wednesday. If she can avoid being backed up well behind the baseline by Rybakina, and force Rybakina to start spraying errors as she can be prone to do, Svitolina has a path to victory. But based on Rybakina’s current form, and on this surface, the 2022 champion is the favorite to advance.
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Lorenzo Musetti (25) vs. Taylor Fritz (13) – Second on No.1 Court
Fritz’s first Major quarterfinal came at this tournament two years ago, when he lost a heartbreaker to Rafael Nadal in a fifth-set tiebreak. He’s reached two more quarterfinals since, at the most recent staging of both the US Open and Australian Open, and is into a fourth thanks to a comeback from two-sets-down on Monday over Sascha Zverev. Taylor now tries to break new ground by achieving his first Major semifinal, and for the first time, his quarterfinal does not feature an opponent named Nadal or Djokovic.
This is a first Slam quarterfinal for Musetti, after twice reaching the fourth round of Roland Garros. The 22-year-old Italian has played three four-setters and one five-setter to this stage, in an open part of the draw where he’s yet to face a seeded player. It’s been a great grass court season for Lorenzo, who is now 11-2 on this surface within the last month.
They have played three times, once on each surface, with Fritz leading 2-1. Taylor won in straight sets on a hard court and grass, including at this event two years ago, while Lorenzo won in straights on clay, just a few months ago in Monte Carlo.
If Fritz can avoid a physical and emotional letdown coming off the Zverev match, and withstand the pressure of being the favorite in a Major quarterfinal for the first time in his career, he should advance. Taylor has been serving excellently, striking 15 aces and zero double faults against Zverev, and winning 83% of first serve points. If he comes anywhere close to those stats again on Wednesday, Musetti’s chances of winning will be slim.
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Alex de Minaur (9) vs. Novak Djokovic (2) – Second on Centre Court
Could Djokovic be the healthier player on this day? His knee has not appeared to have a considerable impact on his form during this tournament, dropping just two sets thus far. By contrast, de Minaur came into this event seemingly healthy, yet appeared to injure himself while lunging for the ball during the last point of his last match, resulting in an extremely muted celebration as he achieved his second Major quarterfinal, as well as looks of concern towards his camp.
Alex’s speed and defensive abilities are his biggest weapon in this matchup, which helped him beat Novak at the beginning of this season in the United Cup. Djokovic claimed their other two encounters in straight sets, at last year’s Australian Open and this year’s Masters 1000 event in Monte Carlo.
At a tournament where Djokovic has been almost completely dominant for the past decade, winning it six times since 2014, you cannot be anything less than your best to upset him. And considering Novak has won 17 of his last 18 Major quarterfinals, the seven-time champion must be favored.
Wednesday’s full Order of Play is here.
