Wimbledon Daily Preview: A Rematch of This Year’s Australian Open Final - UBITENNIS
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Wimbledon Daily Preview: A Rematch of This Year’s Australian Open Final

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Jannik Sinner this past week at Wimbledon (twitter.com/wimbledon)

Day 9 at The Championships hosts the first four singles quarterfinals.

Six months ago in the men’s championship match of the Australian Open, Jannik Sinner came from two-sets-down to outlast Daniil Medvedev in five, and capture his first Major title.  That defeat was just the latest in a career full of Major heartbreak for Medvedev, who is now 1-5 in Slam finals, with three of those losses coming in five-setters.  On Tuesday, Daniil gets a chance to avenge that loss, though it comes on grass, a surface Medvedev does not prefer.

Day 9’s other gentlemen’s singles quarterfinal sees defending champion Carlos Alcaraz take on Tommy Paul, in an even rivalry that is split at 2-2. 

The ladies’ singles quarterfinals on Tuesday feature four surprising debutantes at this stage of The Championships.  Qualifer Lulu Sun has come out of obscurity to make a hugely impressive run, and now faces three-time Major quarterfinalist Donna Vekic.  The other quarterfinal includes two players who had never won a main draw match at Wimbledon prior to this fortnight: Jasmine Paolini and Emma Navarro.

And weather permitting, there will be plenty of doubles matches around the grounds.  Rain has wreaked havoc on the doubles scheduling thus far, so doubles play on Tuesday hosts anywhere from first round to quarterfinal action.

Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s four most prominent matches, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule.  Tuesday’s play is scheduled to begin at 11:00am local time.


Lulu Sun (Q) vs. Donna Vekic – 1:00pm on No.1 Court

23-year-old Sun was a huge underdog in the last round against Emma Raducanu, yet walked onto Centre Court and struck 52 winners to win match in style.  It’s been quite a run for Lulu since the beginning of qualifying two weeks ago, as she’s already won seven matches.  And as Ravi Ubha reminded on Twitter, she even saved a match point in the second round of qualifying.  Coming into this event, Sun had never won a match at a Major, as this is only her second appearance at this level.  But Lulu is now 31-13 this season at all levels, with two ITF-level titles.

Vekic obviously has a huge edge in experience, as she’s consistently played in Majors since 2013.  Her prior quarterfinals came at the 2019 US Open, and the 2023 Australian Open.  But she lost both of those quarterfinals in straight sets, so will her experience help her or hurt her?  Often, the longer a player fails to go deep at a Major, the harder that is to overcome.  And this is the first Major quarterfinal where Vekic is the higher-ranked player, which places a lot of pressure on her shoulders.

However, grass may be Donna’s best surface.  Five of her career 13 WTA finals have come on grass, including the week right before this event in Bad Homburg.  And she is coached by a Hall of Famer who knows all about winning on this surface: Pam Shriver, who is a five-time Wimbledon champion in women’s doubles, and a three-time semifinalist in singles.

As impressive as Lulu has been these last few weeks, a letdown following such a monumental, emotional victory is almost inevitable.  And Donna has been striking the ball rather crisply through four rounds, enabling her to pull out a trio of three-setters.  Vekic is the favorite to achieve her first Major semifinal.


Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Daniil Medvedev (5) – 1:30pm on Centre Court

All 11 of their meetings have taken place on hard courts, and their history can be divided into two distinct eras.  Medvedev won the first six, between February of 2020 and March of 2023.  But within the past year, it’s been all Sinner, who has now beaten Medvedev five times in a row.  Jannik claimed three tight matches last fall, before his Australian Open victory in five.  And most recently, Sinner thumped Medvedev in the Miami Open semifinals by a score of 6-1, 6-2. 

This past January in Melbourne, Medvedev caught Sinner off-guard by playing extremely aggressively, as opposed to his usual counter-punching style.  And it worked for the first two sets, before Jannik made some adjustments.  And a depleted Daniil, who had already played three five-setters that fortnight, ran out of gas.  Medvedev tried to repeat that strategy in Miami, but Sinner was expecting it this time, and it failed miserably.

Both players should be fully fresh for this quarterfinal, as they’ve both lost only two sets thus far, and Medvedev only played eight games in his last round, as Grigor Dimitrov retired due to injury.  But this surface certainly favors Sinner, and the World No.1 has been nearly unstoppable this season, with a record of 42-3.  The Italian is a considerable favorite to defeat Daniil for a sixth consecutive time, and reach his second consecutive Wimbledon semifinal.


Carlos Alcaraz (3) vs. Tommy Paul (12) – Second on No.1 Court

All four of their prior meetings took place at Masters 1000 tournaments in North America between August of 2022 and August of 2023.  Paul prevailed in Canada two years in a row, both times winning a third set 6-3.  Alcaraz won in Miami and Cincinnati, in a two-setter and a three-setter.

Alcaraz is certainly the favorite in their rubber match, as he’s on an 11-match winning streak at SW19.  And along with Sinner and Djokovic, he has separated himself from the field as one of the three best men’s singles players in the world.  However, Carlitos has looked vulnerable during this event, both in a five-set win over Frances Tiafoe, and a four-set win over Ugo Humbert.

And Paul is one of the only ATP players who has the all-around skills to rival that of Alcaraz.  When he’s playing his best, which he has in comfortably winning his last two rounds, Tommy doesn’t have an obvious hole in his game.  So while I’m still backing Alcaraz to advance, I’m expecting a prolonged, entertaining battle.


Jasmine Paolini (7) vs. Emma Navarro (19) – Second on Centre Court

They have met three times, all within the past 12 months, and all three matches have gone to Navarro.  The American won in straights in both San Diego and Doha, while most recently winning in three just a few months ago in Miami, via a third-set score of 6-0.

However, Paolini is playing with more confidence now than ever, coming off her thrilling run to the final of Roland Garros, and picking up the first four Wimbledon victories of her career.  Jasmine claimed the first three in straights, while she survived a close call against Madison Keys in the last round, with Keys unable to close out the match due to injury, eventually retiring at 5-5 in the third.

Navarro has also dropped just one set, and appeared completely nonplussed during Centre Court upsets over two Major champions: Naomi Osaka and Coco Gauff.  Emma was the more confident, consistent, and composed player in both of those matches, forcing errors and negativity out of both Naomi and Coco.

Based on those performances, as well as her rather dominant history against Paolini, I like Navarro’s chances of achieving her first Major semifinal.


Other Notable Matches on Tuesday:

Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend (4) vs. Lyudmyla Kichenok and Jelena Ostapenko (9) – This is a quarterfinal match in ladies doubles.  Siniakova is now an eight-time Major champion in women’s doubles, after winning the last Slam alongside Coco Gauff.  Townsend is a two-time Major runner-up, while Kichenok and Ostapenko were runners-up six months ago in Melbourne.

Su-wei Hsieh and Elise Mertens (1) vs. Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula (11) – This is another ladies’ doubles quarterfinal.  Mertens has reached the Wimbledon final in ladies’ doubles three years running, winning it in 2021 alongside Su-wei, who also won this event a year ago with Barbora Strycova.  Gauff and Pegula are one-time Major finalists as a team, while Coco has now reached three Major finals in women’s doubles.


Tuesday’s full Order of Play is here.

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Wimbledon Daily Preview: Jasmine Paolini Plays Barbora Krejcikova for the Ladies’ Singles Championship

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Jasmine Paolini after winning her semifinal on Thursday (twitter.com/wimbledon)

Day 13 at The Championships hosts the championship matches in ladies’ singles, ladies’ doubles, and gentlemen’s doubles.

It’s cliché, and usually untrue, to say “No one expected these two finalists.”  But in this case, it is absolutely true.  Prior to this fortnight, Jasmine Paolini had never won a match at The Championships.  And Barbora Krejcikova arrived at SW19 with a losing record on the year.  Yet both will play in their second Major singles final on Saturday, after inspired play during this tournament.


Barbora Krejcikova (31) vs. Jasmine Paolini (7) – 2:00pm on Centre Court

After failing to advance beyond the second round in her first 16 appearances at Majors, Paolini is now 15-2 in her last three, and is the first WTA player to reach the final of both Roland Garros and Wimbledon since Serena Williams in 2016.  Jasmine is 30-12 on the year, and has won 14 of her last 16 matches.  She has been taken to three sets twice during this event, most recently outlasting Donna Vekic in a third-set tiebreak during Thursday’s semifinals.

Krejcikova has also required three sets in two of her six matches to this stage, upsetting 2022 champion Elena Rybakina in the semis.  That was the third win in a row for Barbora over a higher-seed, after ousting two other big hitters, Danielle Collins and Jelena Ostapenko.  She’s accomplished all this despite being just 7-9 this season before this tournament began.  Injuries have plagued her career since her 2021 Roland Garros singles title, including a back injury earlier this year. 

Paolini is 2-4 lifetime in singles finals at WTA level, while Krejcikova is 7-5.  However, when you consider their appearances in Major finals between singles and doubles, Paolini is 0-2, having lost both the women’s singles and doubles finals last month in Paris, while Krejcikova is an amazing 11-1.  That’s a huge contrast in success at Grand Slam level.

These players also possess contrasting styles.  Paolini has been crushing her forehand, using it to come forward and show off her great hands at the net.  Krejcikova has a good serve, as well as both power and guile on her groundstrokes.  She loves using her slice to keep her opponents off-balance.  However, that will be more difficult to do against such a great mover like Jasmine.  And Barbora’s forehand has become unreliable in some crucial moments during this fortnight, which the Italian can target.

But on this surface, and considering her history in Major finals, I give the edge to Krejcikova to win her second Major singles title.  Plus, Barbora has already won two ladies’ doubles titles on this same court.  And she would surely cherish the chance to honor her late coach and mentor Jana Novotna by holding the Venus Rosewater Dish aloft on Centre Court, just as Jana did in 1998.


Other Notable Matches on Saturday:

Max Purcell and Jordan Thompson (15) vs. Harri Heliovaara and Henry Patten – This is a fourth Major final in men’s doubles for Purcell, who won this title two years ago alongside another Aussie, Matthew Ebden.  Thompson had never advanced beyond the fourth round of a Major in either men’s singles or doubles until this run.  Patten is also a Major final debutante, while Heliovaara won last year’s US Open in mixed doubles.

Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend (4) vs. Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe (2) – Siniakova is playing for the ninth Major title in women’s doubles, while Townsend is playing for her first, after going 0-2 in previous finals.  Dabrowski and Routliffe are the reigning US Open champions, and Routliffe will become the new World No.1 in women’s doubles on Monday, regardless of Saturday’s result.


Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.

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Wimbledon Daily Preview: Alcaraz and Medvedev Collide in a Semifinal Rematch

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Carlos Alcaraz earlier this week (twitter.com/wimbledon)

Day 12 at The Championships hosts the gentlemen’s singles semifinals, as well as the semifinals in both ladies’ and mixed doubles.

We are just one match away from a highly-anticipated rematch of last year’s epic gentlemen’s singles final between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz.  However, just as he did last summer at the US Open, Daniil Medvedev is eager to spoil the party, and defeat Alcaraz in another Major semifinal.  Plus, Djokovic needs to overcome 22-year-old Italian Lorenzo Musetti, who owns a victory over Novak.


Daniil Medvedev (5) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (3) – 1:30pm on Centre Court

Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 4-2, with three of those victories coming on hard courts, Medvedev’s preferred surface.  They’ve twice before played at this tournament, and they split those meetings.  Medvedev won in straights three years ago in the second round, while Alcaraz won in straights last year in this same round.  And since Daniil defeated Carlitos in four sets last September in New York, Alcaraz has beaten him twice in straights, including a few months ago in the Indian Wells final.

A year after last year’s one-sided semifinal between these same two players, Medvedev appears much more comfortable on grass, and willing to be more aggressive and vary his return position against Alcaraz.  Many of Carlitos’ victories over Daniil have been a result of Medvedev returning serve from way back in the court, allowing Alcaraz to come forward and dictate play, as well as use his beloved drop shot.  But Daniil has recently moved forward and played more offensively, not only against Carlitos, but also against Jannik Sinner, as we saw in the last round.

And Alcaraz has appeared quite vulnerable throughout this fortnight, dropping at least one set in each of his last three matches, all of which featured stints of sloppy play from the defending champion.  Yet as he usually does, Carlitos has created some magic in big moments, including during a come-from-behind victory over Frances Tiafoe in five sets.  And as improved as Medvedev is on grass, this surface still favors the power and variety of Alcaraz.  Carlitos is the favorite to prevail in what should be a contest full of dynamic rallies.


Lorenzo Musetti (25) vs. Novak Djokovic (2) – Second on Centre Court

Musetti’s victory over Djokovic came a year ago on clay in Monte Carlo, in a three-hour three-setter.  The Italian also had the all-time great on the ropes during their first clash at the 2021 French Open, when Lorenzo won the first two sets in tiebreaks, before wilting and losing the next three 6-1, 6-0, 4-0, as a depleted Musetti would retire and be unable to even finish the match. 

Their most recent encounter was also a Roland Garros five-setter.  Just a month ago in Paris, Djokovic again came from behind to defeat Musetti in five, with the last two sets featuring lopsided scores of 6-3 and 6-0.  Overall Novak has claimed five of their six matches.

Lorenzo’s lasting power on Friday will not be aided by a draining five-set win on Wednesday against Taylor Fritz.  By contrast, Djokovic did not play at all on Wednesday, as Alex de Minaur withdrew from their quarterfinal due to injury.  Normally such an interruption to a player’s schedule late in a big event can negatively impact their rhythm.  But Novak is now a 49-time Major semifinalist, so there’s not much he’s unprepared for at this stage of his illustrious career.  And his recently surgically-repaired knee likely didn’t mind the extra rest and recovery time.

And Novak’s record across the past decade in Major semifinals is mind-boggling: since the 2015 Australian Open, he is 22-2.  At Wimbledon specifically, Djokovic hasn’t lost a semifinal since 2012, having won his last eight.  Against an opponent making his Major semifinal debut, Novak is a considerable favorite, even if his knee is still far from 100%.


Other Notable Matches on Friday:

Su-wei Hsieh and Elise Mertens (1) vs. Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend (4) – Su-wei and Mertens crushed Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula in the last round, as each looks to become a ladies’ doubles finalist in all four of their latest appearances at The Championships.  Hsieh will also play in the mixed doubles semifinals later in the day.  Siniakova is an eight-time Major champion in women’s doubles, while Townsend is a two-time finalist. 

Caroline Dolehide and Desirae Krawczyk (7) vs. Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe (2) – Dolehide was a surprising finalist in singles at last fall’s WTA 1000 event in Guadalajara, but is 0-5 in women’s doubles semifinals at Majors.  Krawczyk is a four-time Major champ in mixed doubles, with two of those wins coming at Wimbledon.  Dabrowski and Routliffe are the reigning US Open champions, and like Hsieh, Erin is also in the mixed doubles semis.


Friday’s full Order of Play is here.

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Wimbledon Daily Preview: Major Champions Rybakina and Krejcikova Meet in the Semifinals

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Elena Rybakina after her quarterfinal victory on Wednesday (twitter.com/wimbledon)

Day 11 at The Championships hosts the ladies’ singles semifinals, as well as the gentlemen’s double semifinals.

2022 Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina plays 2021 Roland Garros champion Barbora Krejcikova in Thursday’s ladies’ singles semifinals.  The winner advances to Saturday’s championship match against either Roland Garros runner-up Jasmine Paolini or four-time WTA titleholder Donna Vekic.  In what has been an unpredictable ladies’ singles draw, who will prevail on Day 11?


Donna Vekic vs. Jasmine Paolini (7) – 1:30pm on Centre Court

What an amazing year it has been for Paolini.  At the start of 2024, the 28-year-old Italian had never advanced beyond the second round of a Major in 16 appearances.  But after reaching the fourth round of the Australian Open, and winning a WTA 1000 title in Dubai, she went all the way to the championship match a month ago at Roland Garros, upsetting Rybakina in the quarterfinals.  And now Jasmine has backed up that career milestone with a second consecutive Major semifinal, following a dominant performance against Emma Navarro in the last round.  Paolini will debut inside the top five on Monday.

This is the farthest Vekic has ever advanced at a Major, after previously going 0-2 in quarterfinals.  The 28-year-old Croatian has battled multiple injuries during her career, and was only 12-11 on the year coming into the grass court season.  But Donna has now won eight of her last nine matches on grass, after reaching the final of Bad Homburg two weeks ago.  Grass has easily been the best surface of her career, and she’s benefitted from adding Hall of Famer Pam Shriver to her team.

Paolini and Vekic have split two official meetings, both on hard courts within the past three years.  Jasmine also defeated Donna three years ago in Cincinnati qualifying.  But this surface should certainly favor Vekic, who possesses the much more formidable serve.  Against Lulu Sun in the quarterfinals, Donna won a superb 87% of first serve points. 

In her own quarterfinal against Navarro, Paolini has able to open up the court with her surprisingly powerful forehand, and then coming to net consistently, nabbing 16 of 17 points at net.  Jasmine plays doubles regularly, so she’s fully comfortable coming forward.  And she’s a great returner, as she broke Navarro in five out of seven service games.

This should be a fascinating contest between two players with contrasting styles.  Will Paolini’s recent experience in a Major semifinal be a key factor?  Will Vekic’s grass court prowess carry her to victory?  I give the slight edge to Donna, as I will be surprised if Jasmine can attack Donna’s serve as well as Jasmine has attacked the serve of others, though the Italian has continued to surprise me throughout this season.


Barbora Krejcikova (31) vs. Elena Rybakina (4) – Second on Centre Court

Rybakina is now 19-2 lifetime at The Championships, after a clinical straight-set victory against Elina Svitolina on Wednesday.  That was also her 40th win of the season, which is second-best in WTA singles, despite Elena pulling out of several events due to injury and illness.  She’s dropped just one set through five matches during this fortnight, and across the last three rounds, has struck 89 winners and only 48 unforced errors. 

This semifinal run from Krejcikova has come out of nowhere, as she was just 7-9 before arriving at SW19, in a season interrupted by a back injury.  But she’s been most impressive in back-to-back wins over big-hitting seeded players (Collins, Ostapenko), using her variety to move them around the court, and put them in uncomfortable positions.  If Barbora can do that against Elena on Thursday, she has a real shot at advancing to her second Major final in singles.  And while Krejcikova was just 6-3 in singles at this event prior to this fortnight, she’s twice won this event in ladies’ doubles.

Krejickova is also 2-0 against Rybakina, having won a pair of three-setters on hard courts within the last few seasons.  On this surface, and at this stage of a tournament, with Elena holding a 5-1 record in semifinals this year, Rybakina remains the favorite.  But Elena also knows she’s now a big favorite to win this tournament for a second time, which places plenty of pressure on her shoulders.  I do not expect this semifinal to be straightforward for the 2022 champion.


Other Notable Matches on Thursday:

Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos (1) vs. Max Purcell and Jordan Thompson (15) – This is a gentlemen’s doubles semifinal.  The top seeds are still looking for the first Major of their partnership, despite advancing to the Wimbledon final in two of the last three years.  Purcell won this event in 2022 alongside Matthew Ebden, while this is a first Major semifinal for Thompson.

Harri Heliovaara and Henry Patten vs. Neal Skupski and Michael Venus (9) – This is the second gentlemen’s doubles semifinal.  Skupski won this tournament a year ago with Wesley Koolhof, and also won mixed doubles here in both 2021 and 2022.  Venus won a Major in men’s doubles at the 2017 French Open.  Heliovaara won mixed doubles at last year’s US Open, and has won two ATP titles this season alongside Patten of Great Britain.


Thursday’s full Order of Play is here.

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