Saturday features the WTA singles final, as well as the ATP doubles final.
Saturday’s women’s singles championship match is a blockbuster between the top two seeds, as well as a rematch from last year’s final. A year ago, Aryna Sabalenka defeated Iga Swiatek in three sets. But during this fortnight, Swiatek has been the much better player. Can Iga avenge last year’s loss?
Also on Saturday, at 3:30pm local time, the men’s doubles championship match features two unseeded teams: Sebastian Korda and Jordan Thompson vs. Ariel Behar and Adam Pavlasek. Korda and Thompson are two singles players who took advantage of the ATP’S new doubles schedule at Masters 1000 events, where men’s doubles play does not start until the second week. Behar and Pavlasek are a regular doubles team, but this is the biggest final of their partnership.
Iga Swiatek (1) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (2) – Not Before 6:30pm on Manolo Santana Stadium
While Sabalenka won the final in Madrid a year ago, Swiatek leads their head-to-head 6-3 overall, and 3-1 on clay. All nine of their meetings have come within the past three years. Their only encounter since last year’s final was in the semis of the WTA Finals, where Iga prevailed in straight sets to help clinch the year-end No.1 ranking over Aryna.
As per usual, Swiatek has encountered little resistance on the way to this championship match, her 11th WTA 1000 final out of her last 20 appearances. And she’s an excellent 8-2 in those finals. Iga has dropped only one set through five matches, and after losing the first set to Beatriz Haddad Maia in the quarterfinals, she bounced back quickly, winning 12 of the last 14 games in the match. Swiatek has dropped only 20 games this fortnight.
By contrast, Sabalenka has dropped 60 games this fortnight. Four of her five matches during this tournament have gone three sets, though she outlasted two of 2024’s best WTA performers: Elena Rybakina and Danielle Collins. This is her first final since claiming her second Australian Open crown, and her seventh at WTA 1000 level, where she is s superb 6-1.
These are the two best WTA players of the last few years: a pair a multiple Major winners, with excellent records in finals at this level. Swiatek is the more in-form player, and clay is her favorite surface. However, Madrid is often described as playing more like a hard court, and is clearly to Sabalenka’s liking: she’s a two-time champion here, while Iga is yet to win in Madrid. Plus, Aryna’s three-set wins this week have displayed her grit, and have surely boosted her confidence.
But on Saturday evening, I give the slight edge to Swiatek to win her first Madrid Open title. Her form throughout this tournament has been stellar, and she’s won 67% of her matches against Sabalenka, and 75% of their matches on clay.
Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.
