Madrid Open Daily Preview: Iga Swiatek Plays Aryna Sabalenka for the Women’s Singles Championship - UBITENNIS
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Madrid Open Daily Preview: Iga Swiatek Plays Aryna Sabalenka for the Women’s Singles Championship

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Iga Swiatek on Thursday in Madrid (twitter.com/MutuaMadridOpen)

Saturday features the WTA singles final, as well as the ATP doubles final.

Saturday’s women’s singles championship match is a blockbuster between the top two seeds, as well as a rematch from last year’s final.  A year ago, Aryna Sabalenka defeated Iga Swiatek in three sets.  But during this fortnight, Swiatek has been the much better player.  Can Iga avenge last year’s loss?

Also on Saturday, at 3:30pm local time, the men’s doubles championship match features two unseeded teams: Sebastian Korda and Jordan Thompson vs. Ariel Behar and Adam Pavlasek.  Korda and Thompson are two singles players who took advantage of the ATP’S new doubles schedule at Masters 1000 events, where men’s doubles play does not start until the second week.  Behar and Pavlasek are a regular doubles team, but this is the biggest final of their partnership.


Iga Swiatek (1) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (2) – Not Before 6:30pm on Manolo Santana Stadium

While Sabalenka won the final in Madrid a year ago, Swiatek leads their head-to-head 6-3 overall, and 3-1 on clay.  All nine of their meetings have come within the past three years.  Their only encounter since last year’s final was in the semis of the WTA Finals, where Iga prevailed in straight sets to help clinch the year-end No.1 ranking over Aryna.

As per usual, Swiatek has encountered little resistance on the way to this championship match, her 11th WTA 1000 final out of her last 20 appearances.  And she’s an excellent 8-2 in those finals.  Iga has dropped only one set through five matches, and after losing the first set to Beatriz Haddad Maia in the quarterfinals, she bounced back quickly, winning 12 of the last 14 games in the match.  Swiatek has dropped only 20 games this fortnight.

By contrast, Sabalenka has dropped 60 games this fortnight.  Four of her five matches during this tournament have gone three sets, though she outlasted two of 2024’s best WTA performers: Elena Rybakina and Danielle Collins.  This is her first final since claiming her second Australian Open crown, and her seventh at WTA 1000 level, where she is s superb 6-1.

These are the two best WTA players of the last few years: a pair a multiple Major winners, with excellent records in finals at this level.  Swiatek is the more in-form player, and clay is her favorite surface.  However, Madrid is often described as playing more like a hard court, and is clearly to Sabalenka’s liking: she’s a two-time champion here, while Iga is yet to win in Madrid.  Plus, Aryna’s three-set wins this week have displayed her grit, and have surely boosted her confidence.

But on Saturday evening, I give the slight edge to Swiatek to win her first Madrid Open title.  Her form throughout this tournament has been stellar, and she’s won 67% of her matches against Sabalenka, and 75% of their matches on clay.


Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.

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Internazionali d’Italia Daily Preview: Iga Swiatek Plays Aryna Sabalenka for the Women’s Singles Championship

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Iga Swiatek on Thursday in Rome (twitter.com/InteBNLdItalia)

Saturday features a blockbuster WTA singles final, as well as the ATP doubles semifinals.

In a rematch from the epic final in Madrid two weeks ago, World No.1 Iga Swiatek will face World No.2 Aryna Sabalenka for the women’s singles title in Rome.  In Madrid, Swiatek saved multiple match points, eventually prevailing 9-7 in a third-set tiebreak.  Can Sabalenka avenge that loss on Saturday?


Iga Swiatek (2) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (2) – Not Before 5:00pm on Center Court

This will be their 11th meeting, all of which have taken place within the past two-and-a-half years.  Swiatek leads 7-3 overall, and 4-1 on clay.  Sabalenka’s only victory on this surface came in the Madrid final a year ago. 

Iga is now 37-4 on the year, and 13-1 on clay.  She’s on an 11-match winning streak, claiming nine of those matches in straight sets, including all five of her wins this fortnight. 

By contrast, six of Aryna’s 10 match wins between Madrid and Rome have been three-setters, even outlasting Elina Svitolina in a third-set tiebreak in the fourth round of Rome.  But she has now defeated four consecutive seeded players (Yastremska, Svitolina, Ostapenko, Collins), with the last two wins coming in straight sets.  So despite a back issue she’s been dealing with during this tournament, Sabalenka should be rather fresh for this final.

However, overcoming Swiatek on clay has become the WTA’s toughest task.  Across the last five seasons, she is 69-7 on this surface, which is equivalent to a 92% winning percentage.  If Sabalenka couldn’t complete the task in the altitude of Madrid, which favors her game, I don’t like her chances of doing so in Rome, especially with a nagging back issue.  And considering Iga hasn’t lost a completed match in Rome since 2020, the World No.1 should be favored to win her third title at Foro Italico on Saturday.


Other Notable Matches on Saturday:

Marcelo Arevalo and Mate Pavic vs. Simone Bolelli and Andrea Vavassori – Arevalo and Pavic are vying to reach the second final of their new partnership for 2024, and their first since the start of the year in Hong Kong.  The Italian team of Bolelli and Vavassori already eliminated two top 10 seeds to advance to this semifinal, their fifth of the season.

Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos (1) vs. Alexander Bublik and Ben Shelton – Granollers and Zeballos have advanced to three finals this year, though they’ve lost all three.  Shelton and Bublik are a new team who won three consecutive 10-point tiebreaks to reach this semifinal.


Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.

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Novak Djokovic Accepts Geneva Wildcard Ahead Of Roland Garros

Novak Djokovic has accepted a wildcard into next week’s ATP 250 event in Geneva as he looks to improve his form ahead of Roland Garros.

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(@TheTennisLetter - Twitter)

Novak Djokovic has shockingly accepted a wildcard into next week’s ATP 250 event in Geneva.

The world number one hasn’t had the best season so far having yet to reach a final at any of his events this season.

There was hope for Djokovic that his fortunes would change on clay and the Serb started his clay court season by reaching the semi-finals in Monte-Carlo before losing to Casper Ruud.

However Djokovic’s clay court hopes were dashed in Rome as he lost in the third round to in-form Chilean Alejandro Tabilo.

This has meant that Djokovic risks being undercooked for the second Grand Slam of the season at Roland Garros.

Therefore the Serb has had no option but to take a wildcard into next week’s ATP 250 in Geneva.

Djokovic will join Casper Ruud, Andy Murray, Denis Shapovalov and Taylor Fritz in next week’s event.

Next week’s appearance will be the first appearance in Geneva in Djokovic who will be the top seed in Switzerland.

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Coco Gauff High In Confidence Despite Suffering 10th Loss To Swiatek

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Credit Francesca Micheli/Ubitennis

Coco Gauff believes she ‘lost in the right way’ after exiting the semi-finals of the Italian Open on Thursday. 

The reigning US Open champion fell 6-4, 6-3, to top seed Iga Swiatek after putting up a stern fight with the first set lasting almost an hour. Gauff was broken four times in her latest encounter with the Polish world No.1, who she has now lost to in ten out of their 11 Tour-level meetings. Her sole win was at the 2023 Cincinnati Open. 

Despite her lopsided record against Swiatek, an undeterred Gauff says her confidence has risen during the clay swing heading into the French Open where she will be bidding to become the first American to win the title since Serena Williams in 2015. At the Italian Open, she recorded her first win over a top 10 player this season by beating Zheg Qinwen in the quarter-finals. That was also the 200th win of her career across all levels. 

“I think from the start of the clay till now, I feel like my confidence is definitely very high,” said Gauff. 
“It sucks to lose, but I know I lost playing the right way. I know that I’m a good player and that I can do better in those moments. I think I’m just trusting myself and my practice at that.
“I think the way that I lost, it wasn’t because a wing or a shot broke down, it’s because she (Swiatek) was the better player. If I lose matches like that, we go back and we practice.”

Looking ahead to Roland Garros, the world No.3 is targeting another strong run at the Grand Slam. It is the only major event where she has reached the quarter-finals or better on three separate occasions. Her best run was to the final in 2022 when she was denied the title by Swiatek. 

“I think going into Roland Garros, like if you asked me pretournament and now, I feel like I’m a different player in terms of just how I’ve been playing.” She said.
“Going into it, I know she’s (Swiatek) the one to beat if I want to win Roland Garros. I’m going to take what I learned from today (Thursday) and try to apply that next time we play, which I hope is at Roland Garros.”

Gauff has won seven WTA titles so far in her career but only one of them was on clay. That was back in 2021 at the Parma Open in Italy. 

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