The women’s singles semifinals are on Thursday in Melbourne.
In a rematch of the championship match at the last Major, defending champion Aryna Sabalenka faces US Open champ Coco Gauff in Thursday’s semifinals. No one has been more dominant through five rounds than Sabalenka, though Gauff leads their head-to-head 4-2. And both know whoever wins will be a heavy favorite in Saturday’s final, which will only create more tension.
Thursday night’s other WTA semifinal sees two players vying for their first Major final, as newly-minted top 10 player Qinwen Zheng battles Dayana Yastremska, who is trying to pull off a “Raducanu” by winning a Major as a qualifier.
Plus, the men’s doubles semifinals will be staged on Thursday afternoon, featuring three unseeded teams, as well as Australian Matthew Ebden and his partner Rohan Bopanna, who on Monday will become the oldest first-time men’s doubles World No.1 at the age of 43. And the first women’s doubles semifinal will also be played, featuring two of the top three seeds.
Coco Gauff (4) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (2) – 7:30pm on Rod Laver Arena
In the US Open final, Sabalenka comfortably took the first set 6-2, but Gauff just as comfortably claimed the second and the third. Six months prior in the Indian Wells quarterfinals, Aryna crushed Coco 6-4, 6-0. Yet overall the American has won four of their six meetings, and she holds a 3-2 edge on hard courts.
Sabalenka is now on a 12-match win streak at the Australian Open, and she’s the only WTA semifinalist to have not dropped a set to this stage, losing just 16 games across 10 sets. This is her sixth consecutive Major semifinal, an extremely impressive feat, yet her history in Major semis remains troubling. Aryna is just 2-5 in such matches, with her only two wins coming against an experienced first-time Major semifinalist (Magda Linette) and a player who frankly choked away a 6-0, 5-3 lead (Madison Keys). Sabalenka’s five losses have all been tight three-setters.
Gauff is now on a 12-match win streak at Majors, and is 10-0 to start 2024 after winning the title in Auckland. She easily claimed her first four matches here in straight sets, then took a page out of her coach Brad Gilbert’s book by “Winning Ugly” in an over three-hour three-setter against Marta Kostyuk. Coco’s level during the first half of that match was alarming, striking just five winners and 24 unforced errors in the first set. But unlike Sabalenka, Gauff is 2-0 in Major semis, having won both in straight sets.
Can Coco raise her level after that quarterfinal escape? Can Aryna hold her nerve in a Major semifinal against a top player? Based on their history, both shared and individually, I trust Gauff in this situation more than I trust Sabalenka. I like Coco’s chances of advancing to her third Major singles final.
Dayana Yastremska (Q) vs. Qinwen Zheng (12) – Last on Rod Laver Arena
Qinwen made strong progress in 2023, with a record of 35-19 and winning her first two WTA titles (Palermo, Zhengzhou). She also achieved her first Slam quarterfinal in New York, upsetting Ons Jabeur in the fourth round. Zheng possesses a formidable serve, and has lost two sets through five rounds, though she’s notably yet to face a top 50 player.
Yastremska has already won eight matches in Melbourne, after surviving a trio of three-setters two weeks ago in qualifying. Like Qinwen, she’s lost two sets through five rounds in the main draw, but unlike Qinwen, every player she has taken out has been top 50 opposition (Vondrousova, Gracheva, Navarro, Azarenka, Noskova). While Dayana’s aggressive baseline game can often spray a lot of errors, she’s played confidently this fortnight, forcing more errors out of her opposition.
This is a rare first-time meeting in a Major singles semifinal, between a 21-year-old from China and a 23-year-old from Ukraine both looking to break new ground in their careers. Whichever player better handles this huge moment will be the one to prevail on Thursday night. And based on what I’ve seen, I favor the more even temperament of Qinwen to propel her into her first Major final.
Other Notable Matches on Thursday:
Tomas Machac and Zhizhen Zhang vs. Rohan Bopanna and Matthew Ebden (2) – This is the first tournament for the partnership of Machac and Zhizhen, and they upset four-time Major champs Rajeev Ram and Joe Salisbury. Bopanna and Ebden were finalists at the last Major in New York.
Andrea Vavassori and Simone Bolelli vs. Yannik Hanfmann and Dominik Koepfer – Vavassori and Bolelli hadn’t teamed together since the US Open, where they lost in the first round. This is only Hanfmann and Koepfer’s fourth tournament as a team, and their first outside of their home country of Germany, yet they’ve already taken out three seeded teams.
Storm Hunter and Katerina Siniakova (3) vs. Su-Wei Hsieh and Elise Mertens (2) – Hsieh is still alive in both the women’s and mixed doubles draws, and she won two women’s doubles Majors last season. Su-Wei and Mertens won Wimbledon together back in 2021, six months after Mertens won this event alongside Aryna Sabalenka. Hunter and Siniakova are a new team for 2024, and in the last round they defeated Siniakova’s former partner Barbora Krejcikova and Laura Siegemund.
Thursday’s full Order of Play is here.
