As the 2023 season comes to a close, the year-end No.1 rankings for the ATP and WTA are still to be decided.
The WTA Finals begin on Sunday in Cancun, with the top eight singles players and doubles teams of 2023 competing in a round-robin format. Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek are both vying for the year-end No.1 ranking. Sabalenka currently holds a 630 point lead, but a player can earn up to 1,500 points across the next eight days.
Sunday’s play in Cancun features Sabalenka taking on Maria Sakkari, who has reached the semifinals in each of the last two years at this event. Plus, Elena Rybakina makes her WTA Finals debut against Jessica Pegula.
Each day, this preview will analyze the most intriguing matchup from the WTA Finals, and starting Monday, from the ATP Paris Masters as well. Sunday’s play in Cancun begins at 2:30pm local time.
Aryna Sabalenka (1) vs. Maria Sakkari (8) – Not Before 6:15pm in Cancun
Sabalenka is 53-12 on the year, with three titles. Two of those came within the first month of the season, including her first Major title in Melbourne. Aryna also advanced to the championship match at the US Open, and is the only WTA player to reach all four Major semifinals in 2023. This is her third appearance at the WTA Finals, and she was the runner-up a year ago, losing in the final to Caroline Garcia.
Sakkari is 38-22 this season, with one title (Guadalajara), and was the first alternate for this tournament until Karolina Muchova withdrew due to injury. Maria had a really rough year at the Majors, going only 2-4, and losing in the first round of Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and the US Open. But she does arrive in Cancun having won nine of her last 12 matches on hard courts, five of which came during her title run in this same country.
Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 6-3, and all but one of their encounters have occurred on this surface. Aryna claimed both of their meetings this year in straight sets. However, they’ve played in each of the past two years at this event, with both of those contests going to Sakkari. And considering Sabalenka has only played one tournament since her loss in the US Open final, I give the much more match tough Sakkari the slight edge to pull off the upset, and to continue her winning streak in Mexico.
Other Notable Matches on Sunday:
Elena Rybakina (4) vs. Jessica Pegula (5) – Rybakina is 46-13 in 2023, but has been battling injury the last several months, and like Sabalenka, has only played one tournament since the US Open. Pegula is 55-17, and is coming off a title run a few weeks ago in Seoul. Jess is 2-1 against Elena, with all three matches taking place on hard courts within the last two seasons.
Sunday’s full Order of Play for the WTA Finals is here.
