It’s Third Round Thursday in Cincinnati, with some extremely appetizing matchups on the schedule.
In each of the past two years in Canada, Tommy Paul has upset Carlos Alcaraz in three sets. Can the American beat the World No.1 again on Thursday? Other ATP action features the sport’s most prolific rivalry of the past seven years, as Daniil Medvedev and Sascha Zverev face off for the 16th time. And Novak Djokovic and Gael Monfils revisit one of the most lopsided head-to-heads in the history of tennis.
In addition, third round WTA matches on Thursday are stacked, featuring eight of the top 10 women in the world. That includes Iga Swiatek, Aryba Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, and Ons Jabeur.
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s two most prominent matches, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule. Thursday’s play gets underway at 11:00am local time.
Sascha Zverev (16) vs. Daniil Medvedev (3) – 11:00am on Grandstand
Medvedev is 9-6 against Zverev overall, and 3-0 against him this season. And surprisingly, that includes two victories for Daniil on clay. All three of those matches were at other Masters 1000 events (Indian Wells, Monte Carlo, Rome), and two of them were quite epic, lasting over three hours.
Medvedev is 49-10 in 2023, and 32-4 on hard courts. But he could use a bit of momentum ahead of the US Open, a tournament he won two years ago. While Daniil has claimed five titles this year, four of them came in either February or March, with the other coming in May.
Zverev is 36-19 on the year, yet he’s failed to rediscover his top form since the gruesome ankle injury that ended his season last year at Roland Garros. Sascha did win a clay court title last month in Hamburg, but as per Tennis Abstract, he is 0-8 this season against the ATP top 10.
Based on their recent history, and on this surface, Medvedev is a considerable favorite to advance.
Carlos Alcaraz (1) vs. Tommy Paul (14) – Third on Center Court
Alcaraz and Paul have met three times within the past 53 weeks, all on North American hard courts. Last summer in Montreal, Tommy won 6-3 in third, after three hours and 20 minutes. This past March in Miami, Carlitos won 6-4, 6-4. And just last week in Toronto, Paul won 6-3 in the third yet again.
Alcaraz is now 50-5 on the year after a three-set victory over Jordan Thompson on Tuesday night. As per Tennis Channel, his current winning percentage in 2023 of 91% would be the highest full-year winning percentage for any player under the age of 21 in ATP history if he can maintain that level until the end the year.
Paul is 37-19 this season, and reached a career-high ranking this week of No.13 in the world. That’s thanks to achieving his first Major semifinal in January, and reaching two tour-level finals.
Yet on Thursday, I would be surprised if Tommy can defeat Carlitos again. The World No.1 exhibited some strong problem solving skills in defeating Jordan Thompson on Tuesday, even with his best tennis escaping him. And beating a player of the Spaniard’s caliber three out of four times is an extremely tall task.
Other Notable Matches on Thursday:
Marketa Vondrousova (10) vs. Sloane Stephens – The Wimbledon champ is now 33-11 on the year, and could easily continue climbing further inside the top 10 as the season progresses. Stephens upset the defending champion, Caroline Garcia, on Tuesday evening.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (4) vs. Hubert Hurkacz – Tsitsipas defeated American Ben Shelton on Wednesday, while Hurkacz took out the defending champion, Bornca Coric. Stefanos leads their head-to-head 7-2, with all nine matches taking place on hard courts.
Iga Swiatek (1) vs. Qinwen Zheng – Swiatek picked up her 51st win of the year on Wednesday against an injured Danielle Collins. Qinwen came back from a set down to eliminate Venus Williams. Iga leads their head-to-head 3-0.
Marie Bouzkova vs. Jessica Pegula (3) – Pegula also came back from a set down on Wednesday, defeating Martina Trevisan of Italy. The American No.1 is 2-1 against Bouzkova at tour level, which includes a straight-set win this year in Madrid on clay.
Elena Rybakina (4) vs. Jasmine Paolini (Q) – Rybakina overcame Jelena Ostapenko in a back-and-forth affair on Wednesday by a score of 6-4 in the third. Paolini has dropped just seven games in four sets thus far in the main draw. Three months ago in Rome, Elena defeated Jasmine in straight sets.
Daria Kasatkina (14) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (2) – Kasatkina has also dropped just seven games through four sets to this stage. Sabalenka required three sets to take out American Ann Li on Wednesday evening. Aryna leads their head-to-head 3-2.
Ons Jabeur (5) vs. Donna Vekic – Jabeur scarcely survived an opening round scare from Anhelina Kalinina. Vekic has already earned impressive victories this week over Jennifer Brady and Victoria Azarenka. Ons is 3-1 against Donna.
Linda Noskova (Q) vs. Coco Gauff (7) – 18-year-old Noskova upset fellow Czech Petra Kvitova in the last round. Gauff easily dispatched of Mayar Sherif on Wednesday night. This year at Indian Wells, Coco beat Linda 6-4, 6-3.
Gael Monfils (PR) vs. Novak Djokovic (2) – Djokovic is an absurd 18-0 against Monfils, with a shared history that dates back to the 2005 US Open.
Thursday’s full Order of Play is here.
