It’s Semifinal Saturday for the men in Toronto and the women in Montreal.
The women’s singles semifinals include three of the top four players in the world. The most blockbuster matchup in either city on Saturday sees World No.1 Iga Swiatek face World No.4 Jessica Pegula. They have split two meetings this season, who will win the rubber match and advance to Sunday’s final? The other WTA singles semifinal in Montreal features Elena Rybakina and Liudmila Samsonova.
In Toronto, we are guaranteed to have a first-time Masters 1000 champion after a series of upsets across the last few days. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who already took out Sascha Zverev and Casper Ruud, faces Alex de Minaur, who has eliminated Cameron Norrie, Taylor Fritz, and Daniil Medvedev. And in the other singles semifinal, Tommy Paul, who upset top-seeded Carlos Alcaraz on Friday night, takes on Jannik Sinner, who is the highest seed remaining and the favorite to claim this 1000-level title.
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s most prominent match in both Montreal and Toronto, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule in each city. Saturday’s play gets underway at 12:30pm in both cities.
Iga Swiatek (1) vs. Jessica Pegula (4) – 12:30pm on Court Central in Montreal
Swiatek picked up her 50th win of the season on Friday, outlasting an in-form Danielle Collins in three sets. This was a second consecutive three-set victory for Iga, who defeated her French Open final opponent, Karolina Muchova, 6-4 in the third on Thursday. As per Tennis Abstract, those are two of only seven three-set victories out of her 50 wins this year, so Swiatek has been forced to work a lot more this week than she’s used to.
Pegula picked up her 40th win of the season on Friday, by a score of 7-5 in the third over her friend and doubles partner, Coco Gauff. That was an especially impressive win for Jess, as Coco has been playing stellar tennis these past two weeks. However, Pegula is just 1-5 in WTA 1000 semifinals, compared to Swiatek’s excellent record of 7-1.
Overall Iga is 5-2 against Jess, with all seven matches taking place within the last four years. They played four times in 2022, with Swiatek claiming all four matches. This season, Pegula won 6-2, 6-2 at the United Cup, while Swiatek won 6-3, 6-0 in the final of Doha.
Their aforementioned contrasting record in semifinals at this level is startling. And considering Iga has separated herself from the pack these last two seasons on clay and hard courts, she should be favored to reach her eighth WTA 1000 final.
Tommy Paul (12) vs. Jannik Sinner (7) – Not Before 7:00pm on Center Court in Toronto
Paul’s upset over Alcaraz marked the second straight year he defeated Carlitos at this event. Tommy is now 34-18 this year, and 20-7 on hard courts. This is his first Masters 1000 semifinal, after previously going 0-2 in Masters quarterfinals, and he’s vying for his third tour-level final of the year.
Sinner survived a late night battle on Friday that went three sets, and went past midnight. He’s now 39-11 this year, though he hasn’t won a title in over six months. This is Jannik’s fourth Masters 1000 semifinal out of his five appearances this season, and he’s twice before advanced to a Masters final in his career, both this year as well two years ago in Miami.
Both players achieved their first Major semifinal this season, and they’ve split their two prior encounters, both of which occurred in 2022. On clay in Madrid, Sinner prevailed in three. On grass in Eastbourne, Paul prevailed in three. On a hard court in Toronto, I like Jannik’s chance of reaching his third Masters 1000 final. He has more experience in the latter stages of Masters events, and possesses more firepower than Tommy.
Other Notable Matches on Saturday:
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Alex de Minaur – This should be a fun match between two of the quickest men on tour. Davidovich Fokina is 1-0 in Masters semifinals, having defeated Grigor Dimitrov in this round a year ago in Monte Carlo on clay. De Minaur had never even been in a Masters quarterfinal prior to this week. Ale leads their head-to-head 2-1 at tour level, though their only hard court meeting went to Alex.
Elena Rybakina (3) vs. Liudmila Samsonova (15) – Rybakina’s quarterfinal victory over Daria Kasatkina was decided in a third-set tiebreak, in a grueling contest that lasted three-and-a-half hours, and ended at nearly 3:00am local time on Saturday morning. Samsonova played twice on Friday, defeating both Aryna Sabalenka and Belinda Bencic. And Liudmila is 2-0 against Elena.
Saturday’s full Order of Play for the WTA is here, and the ATP is here.