The quarterfinals conclude on Wednesday, headlined by a rematch of last year’s ladies’ singles championship match.
A year ago, Ons Jabeur was just a set away from winning her first Major, and as the Netflix series “Break Point” recently revealed, her most coveted one. But Ons tightened up in that moment, and Elena Rybakina pounced, easily taking the last two sets and a first Major crown of her own. A year later, these same two players will meet in a blockbuster Wimbledon quarterfinal.
The other WTA quarterfinal on Day 10 is what Mary Carillo famously coined a few decades ago as “Big Babe Tennis,” as Aryna Sabalenka takes on Madison Keys in a match that will feature plenty of firepower.
On the men’s side, we will see the first-ever Wimbledon quarterfinal between two players under the age of 21, as Carlos Alcaraz plays Holger Rune in first of likely many battles between the two breakout stars in the latter stages of a Slam. And the Cinderella story of the fortnight, Christopher Eubanks, faces regular storyline villain Daniil Medvedev.
Madison Keys (25) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (2) – 1:00pm on No.1 Court
Playing an opponent she had a losing record against in Ekaterina Alexandrova, Sabalenka performed excellently on Monday, soundly defeating Alexandrova 6-4, 6-0. Aryna has dropped just one set thus far, and is now 39-7 this season. And she is a mightily impressive 5-0 in Major quarterfinals.
Many, including myself, have often criticized Madison Keys for lacking a Plan B. But when her big serve and forehand were rendered ineffective on Monday, and she found herself down a set and 4-1 against 16-year-old Mirra Andreeva, Keys changed gears, attacking the net, and it worked wonderfully. Madison eventually won 6-2 in the third, extending her grass court winning streak to nine matches, and propelling herself into her first Wimbledon quarterfinal since 2015, easily the longest such drought of her career.
These big hitters have split two prior encounters. Five years ago in Cincinnati on a hard court, Sabalenka won in straight sets. Two years ago in Berlin on grass, Keys won 7-5 in the third. On paper, Aryna is clearly the favorite based on recent form. But after escaping near-defeat in the last round, I have a feeling Madison will be bursting with confidence, and I see her pulling off the upset on Wednesday.
Ons Jabeur (6) vs. Elena Rybakina (3) – 1:30pm on Centre Court
A year ago in the ladies’s championship match, Jabeur was the clear favorite, and the much more established player. Rybakina was a bit of a surprise finalist: she had a big game for sure, but had only won two tour titles, and only had one Slam quarterfinal to her name.
A year later, Rybakina arrives with the much stronger season, having reached a second Major final in Melbourne, and possessing an overall record of 37-8. Jabeur missed much of this season due to multiple injuries, and is just 20-9. But she played perhaps her best tennis of 2023 in dominating Petra Kvitova on Monday by a score of 6-0, 6-3.
Their head-to-head history is locked at 2-2, and with the exception of a match where Rybakina retired in the second set, all their matches have gone the distance. While many are expecting a Sabalenka/Rybakina semifinal, I don’t see that happening. I give Jabeur the slight edge, as she’ll be highly motivated to avenge last year’s painful loss. And Rybakina has already shared she feels nervous in her first-ever title defense of this magnitude.
Daniil Medvedev (3) vs. Christopher Eubanks – Second on No.1 Court
Medvedev leads the tour with 45 victories this season. As usual, most of them have come on hard courts, but he’s proven to also be a threat on clay and grass this season. Daniil has reached his first Wimbledon quarterfinal with the loss of only one set, and he’s faced some formidable grass court opposition, like Adrian Mannarino and Marton Fucsovics.
27-year-old Eubanks had never been ranked inside the top 100 until March of this year, when he came through qualifying in Miami to reach the quarterfinals. He’s on a nine-match winning streak on grass, after winning his first ATP title in Mallorca. Chris has already defeated two top names this fortnight in Cam Norrie and Stefanos Tsitsipas, and is now sitting at No.31 in the live rankings.
The player Eubanks lost to in that Miami quarterfinal was Medvedev, by a score of 6-3, 7-5. But four months later, Chris is a completely different player, oozing with confidence on a surface he previously despised but has quickly learned to love. If he can use his one-two punch, his massive serve and forehand, to take advantage of Daniil’s deep return position, Chris has a real shot at pulling off another upset. And he’s been hitting some superb down-the-line backhands as well. But without any experience anywhere near this stage of a Major, as Eubanks had never previously advanced beyond the second round, Medvedev and his suffocating defensive skills should be favored.
Carlos Alcaraz (1) vs. Holger Rune (6) – Second on Centre Court
This should be a lot of fun, and the start of what will likely be a spirited rivalry for many years to come, between two of the sport’s most impressive and explosive young stars. Alcaraz is now 44-4 on the year, and vying for his third consecutive Slam semifinal. He’s dropped two sets thus far, one to Nicolas Jarry, and the other to Matteo Berrettini.
Rune has survived a much more difficult path to this quarterfinal. He saved two match points against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, eventually prevailing 10-8 in a fifth-set tiebreak, and came back from a set down against Grigor Dimitrov. Holger is 37-12 this season, and is into his third Major quarterfinal out of the last six, though he’s yet to advance farther.
They have played twice before on indoor hard courts within the past two years, splitting those meetings, though one of those was in the Next Gen Finals under a different scoring system, and Alcaraz retired mid-match in the other, so neither are a strong indicator of Wednesday’s result. In another match on Wednesday that could easily go either way, I cautiously lean towards Carlitos. He has just a bit more experience on this surface, and his highest level remains somewhat higher than Holger’s. And Alcaraz is the only one of the two who has previously prevailed in this round of a Slam.
Wednesday’s full Order of Play is here.
