The quarterfinals begin on Tuesday, with a pair of men’s and women’s singles matchups.
Novak Djokovic is now just three wins away from his record-extending 24th Major singles title, and just 10 wins away from the ever-elusive calendar-year Grand Slam. On Tuesday, he’ll be a huge favorite against Andrey Rublev, who is 0-7 in Slam quarterfinals. The other men’s quarterfinal on Day 9 also features a heavy favorite, as Jannik Sinner takes on Roman Safiullin, who had never advanced beyond the second round of a Major before this fortnight.
Iga Swiatek is now just three wins away from her fifth Slam, and must be breathing a sigh of relief after saving two match points in the last round against Belinda Bencic. On Tuesday, she faces Elina Svitolina, who outlasted Victoria Azarenka on Sunday in a fabulous match decided by a final-set tiebreak. And in the other WTA quarterfinal, Jessica Pegula vies for her first Major semi against 2019 Roland Garros finalist Marketa Vondrousova.
Jessica Pegula (4) vs. Marketa Vondrousova – 1:00pm on No.1 Court
Much like Rublev, Pegula is trying to overcome what has become a huge stumbling block in her career: Major quarterfinals. The 29-year-old American is now 0-5 at this stage of Slams, and she’s only managed one set in those five appearances, losing her last 10 sets contested. She’s now 35-11 this season, though she was just 3-3 at SW19 before these Championships. While grass is not her strongest surface, she’s dropped only one set through four rounds.
Vondrousova’s career was disrupted by injury after her surprising run to the 2019 French Open final. But four years later, she’s into her second Major quarterfinal, after also only losing one set. She has beaten three consecutive seeds (Kudermetova, Vekic, Bouzkova), and is now 28-10 on the year.
In their first career meeting, I’m picking Vondrousova to pull off the upset. Her game is better suited for the lawns of The All England Club than Pegula’s, and an 0-5 record in Slam quarterfinals is a tall hurdle to jump over.
Iga Swiatek (1) vs. Elina Svitolina (WC) – 1:30pm on Centre Court
This is the farthest Swiatek has ever been at SW19, and she’ll likely play freely on Tuesday after surviving on Sunday despite being just one point away from exiting. She’s 42-6 this season, after going 67-9 in 2022. Iga has become a dominant No.1, and her success on clay and hard courts appears to now be transferring over to grass.
In just the sixth tour-level event of her comeback from child birth, Svitolina has achieved her second consecutive Major quarterfinal. Her victory over Azarenka in the round of 16 was one of the most exciting matches of the tournament, with Elina earning her first win over Vika in six tries. However, she’s another player who has struggled in this round of a Slam, with a record of 2-7, though one of those two wins came at Wimbledon in 2019.
Their only prior encounter occurred two years in Rome on clay, with Swiatek prevailing 6-2, 7-5. And on Tuesday, Iga is again a favorite to be victorious, especially since she’s 5-1 in Slam quarterfinals.
Jannik Sinner (8) vs. Roman Safiullin – Second on No.1 Court
Sinner is yet another play who has continually stalled in this round of Majors. The 21-year-old Italian is 0-4 in Slam quarterfinals, including here a year ago, despite being up two sets against Novak Djokovic. He also lost an epic five-set quarterfinal to Carlos Alcaraz last summer in New York, which lasted well over five hours and into the early hours of the morning.
But this is a dream draw for a young man looking to break new ground in his career. Safiullin is a 25-year-old who had never been ranked higher than 82nd in the world before this run. And while he’s played well at this event, he also benefitted from the hobbled condition of Denis Shapovalov in the last round.
Sinner is 1-0 against Safiullin, defeating him in straight sets at last year’s ATP Cup. And Jannik is a considerable favorite to achieve his first Major semifinal on Tuesday.
Andrey Rublev (7) vs. Novak Djokovic (2) – Second on Centre Court
Djokovic’s current streaks are mind-boggling: 25 matches at Majors, 32 matches at Wimbledon, and 42 matches on Centre Court, dating back over a decade. And he’s claimed 14 of his last 15 Slam quarterfinals, with the only loss coming against Rafael Nadal at last year’s Roland Garros.
That includes a straight-set victory over Rublev six months ago in Melbourne. Novak is 3-1 against Andrey, with the only upset coming last year on clay on Belgrade, when Djokovic was not 100% match tough. And perhaps the most damning evidence against Rublev is six of his seven losses in Slam quarterfinals have been in straights sets.
In Andrey’s first quarterfinal at Wimbledon, and Novak’s 14th, it would be truly shocking if Djokovic loses to Rublev on Tuesday. Even if Rublev redlines for three sets, he’d likely need a whole lot of help from Djokovic to prevail, and it’s been a long time since Novak provided his opposition with any gifts at Majors.
Tuesday’s full Order of Play is here.
