Medvedev and Rublev have won more than 60% of the matches they have played on this surface, Ruud and Rune are yet to break through.
by Ferruccio Roberti, translated by Kingsley Elliot Kaye
89.58 is the percentage of matches won at Wimbledon by Novak Djokovic.A stunning performance: 86 wins on 96 matches played on the lawns of Church Road. In the Open Era only Bjorn Borg (92.73%) and Pete Sampras (90%) have done better.
Such a stat would be enough to explain why the winner of the first two Slams of this year and eleven of the last seventeen Majors is the great favourite of this edition of the Championships. The Serb, who already has lifted seven Wimbledon trophies, has not lost on the lawns of Church Road since 12th July 2017, when he withdrew in the quarterfinals against Berdych. That would be his last match in 2017. He spent the rest of the season in the pits, struggling to solve his right elbow problems.
However, a Grand Slam is a sort of tennis marathon composed not of 42.195 km of running, but of seven matches best of five sets and even for the great favourite there will be potential obstacles he could stumble on.
A few days before the start of Wimbledon I collected some data of the 24 tennis players who – also according to the bookmakers – are among the main candidates to win the most prestigious Slam.
In the three tables you can find the data relating to their performance on grass in the last five seasons (starting from 2018, since in 2020 due to Covid the tournament was not played). For the success rates I have also indicated the virtual position in aspecial ranking considering the tennis players who in this period of time have played at least eight matches on grass (and at least three against top 20 players).
These data are indicative, but have to be carefully pondered, since they are not based on large numbers: on average the tennis players included in my study have played about twenty matches in total from 2018 to today. Out of curiosity I then added for each tennis player the analogous data on clay to try to evaluate – albeit with partial data – to which extent the difference in surface can still be impacting.
Some of the findings are quite obvious, starting with those relating to Djokovic, whose stats are much better than those of his fellow players: he has a 28 match winning streak, still running: his last defeat on grass dates back to the Queen’s 2018 final against Cilic, a spectacular match in which he also had match point.
In this study I have taken into consideration the top 10 and almost all the tennis players who have obtained notable results on grass in recent years, preferring in this sense those who, besides having a good ranking, have either recently displayed a better state of form or boast an excellent herbivorous pedigree.
| Player | % Wins on Grass | % Wins on Grass vs Top 20 | Finals on Grass | Last 4 Wimbledon Results | % Wins on Clay | % Wins on Clay vs Top 20 | Finals on Clay | Best Result in last 5 RG Results |
| Alcaraz | 81.82 (5°) | 33.33 (31°) | 1-0 | A-A- R64-R16 | 81.82 (2°) | 76.19 (1°) | 7-3 | SF |
| Djokovic | 96.97 (1°) | 90.91 (2°) | 4-1 | W-W-W-W | 81 (3°) | 67.65 (3°) | 6-4 | W (2) |
| Medvedev | 65 (20°) | 62.5 (14°) | 1-2 | R32-R32-R16-A | 57.45 (30°) | 60 (6°) | 1-1 | QF |
| Ruud | 37.5 (103°) | 0% | 0-0 | A-R128-R128-R64 | 74.5 (7°) | 51.72 (12°) | 9-4 | F (2) |
| Tsitsipas | 58.62 (40°) | 66.67 (5°) | 1-0 | R16-128-R128-R32 | 77.05 (5°) | 58.70 (8°) | 4-7 | F (2) |
| Rune | 42.85 | 33.33 (21°) | 0-0 | A-A-A-R128 | 60.71 (22°) | 50 (13°) | 2-2 | QF (2) |
| Rublev | 70.59 (12°) | – | 0-2 | A-R64-R16-A | 70.13 (9°) | 55 (11°) | 3-3 | QF (2) |
| Sinner | 50 (66°) | 50% | 0-0 | A-A-R128-QF | 68.25 (10°) | 42.11 (29°) | 1-0 | QF |
| Fritz | 62.50 (26°) | 0% (57°) | 2-0 | R64-R64-R32-QF | 55.56 (39°) | 30 (62°) | 0-0 | R32 (2) |
| Tiafoe | 58.62 (40°) | 50% (20°) | 1-0 | R32-R128-R32- R16 | 50 (69°) | 22.22 (84°) | 1-2 | R32 |
| Auger Aliassime | 68.75 (14°) | 66.67 (5°) | 0-2 | A-R32-QF-R128 | 50.79 (68°) | 37.5 (38°) | 0-2 | R16 |
| Norrie | 60 (38°) | 16.67 (53°) | 0-1 | R128-R64-R32-SF | 62.96 (14°) | 28.57 (65°) | 2-3 | R32 (3) |
| Musetti | 40 (95°) | 0 (57°) | 0-0 | A-A-R128-R128 | 61.76 (20°) | 47.62 (23°) | 1-0 | R16 (2) |
| De Minaur | 61.54 (29°) | 33.33 (31°) | 1-1 | R32-R64-R128-R16 | 42.22 (124°) | 9.09 (114°) | 0-0 | R64 (3) |
| Zverev | 57.89 (46°) | 0% | 0-0 | R32-R128-R16-A | 74.55 (6°) | 45.45 (24°) | 4-2 | SF (3) |
| Bautista Agut | 71.88 (11°) | 33.3 (31°) | 0-1 | A-SF-R16-R64 | 54.93 (45°) | 0 (115°) | 1-1 | R32 (3) |
| Korda | 64.29 (21°) | 66.67 (5°) | 0-0 | A-A-R16-A | 56.25 (36°) | 50 (13°) | 1-0 | R32 |
| Bublik | 66.67 (18°) | 37.5 (37°) | 1-2 | A-R128-R32-R32 | 36.84 (154°) | 25 (71°) | 0-0 | R64 (3) |
| Griekspoor | 66.67 (18°) | 28.57 (46°) | 1-0 | A-A-R128-R64 | 38.10 (150°) | 0 | 0-0 | R64 (2) |
| Kyrgios | 67.65 (17°) | 40 (27°) | 0-1 | R32-R64-R32-F | 50 (69°) | 50 | 0-0 | A (5) |
| Berrettini | 82.50 (4°) | 75 (4°) | 4-1 | R64-R16-F-A | 71.21 (8°) | 25 (71°) | 3-3 | QF |
| Murray | 57.89 (46°) | 16.67 (53°) | 2-1 | A-A-R32-R64 | 33.33 | 33.33 (45°) | 0-0 | R128 |
| Cressy | 61.11 (30°) | 50 (20°) | 1-1 | A-A-A-R64 | 9.09 (201°) | 0 | 0-0 | R128 |
| Raonic | 78.26 (7°) | 50 (20°) | 0-1 | QF-R16-A-A | 71.42 | 0 | 0-0 | A (5) |
Note: the statistics are related to matches played since January 2018 up to last Sunday. Columns 2,3,5, 6 indicate the position occupied by the player in the virtual ranking of the stats. When a tennis player hasn’t played a minimum number of matches, no position is awarded.
The tables provide some interesting insights: for instance, among the top ten only Alcaraz and Djokovic have a truly excellent performance rate on grass (the Spaniard, however, due to his young age, has played a small number of matches so far). Indeed, only Medvedev and Rublev have won more than 60% of their matches on grass and have featured in the top 20 of our specific grass ranking in the last five seasons.
Considering the tennis players who are present both in one of the three tables and in the current top 20 of the ATP ranking, only Fritz, De Minaur and Auger-Aliassime exceed 60% of matches won, while players like Korda, Bublik, Kyrgios, Berrettini and Bautista have an excellent grass ranking, but – owing to various reasons, very often injuries – a much worse ATP ranking.
One of the most striking findings is the poor grass standing of the runner-up of the last two Roland Garros and US Open 2022 Casper Ruud, who in his career has won just three matches on grass. Over one hundred players have performed better than him.
Of the current top seven players in the world (also owing to young age, in the case of Alcaraz and Rune) only Djokovic has reached at least the quarterfinals of the Championships, while, reading the tables you can see all the top 8 of the ATP ranking have reached the “last eight” at Roland Garros at least once.
Without wanting to draw absolute conclusions, also given the different numbers (matches played on clay are on average, between double and triple the matches of those played on grass) it can be inferred that there are still consistent differences between the two surfaces, though the gap has narrowed over the years.
If, unlike a few decades ago, serve and volley has almost disappeared even on grass and tennis is played with similar patterns on all surfaces, the different technical-tactical attitudes (and also psychological strength) still make a difference. Just consider how different the performance rate of Tsitsipas and Ruud is, depending on whether they play on clay or on grass.
And, still mentioning top 10 players, how Tiafoe and Fritz are so much more proficient on grass.
Beyond the top 10, many tennis players have 15 or more percentage points of difference in their performance on the two surfaces. Among those featuring in our tables it’s worth mentioning Auger-Aliassime, Musetti, De Minaur, Zverev, Bautista-Agut, Bublik and Kyrgios.
Among those who do not appear in my tables there are Cilic, Dimitrov, Thiem, Carreno Busta, Davidovich Fokina, all with relevant win percentage differences.
In the current top 100 we cannot but mention the striking study cases of Mannarino (15.63% of successes on clay vs 60% on grass), Thompson (56.41% on grass, 28.57 on clay), Ramos-Vinolas (55.33 on clay, 0% in 7 matches on green), Humbert (28.13 on clay, 58.06 on grass) and Cecchinato (25% on grass, 53.04 on clay).
