On Thursday night in Melbourne, the women’s singles semifinals will be played.
The first semifinal is a battle between two Major singles champions, as reigning Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina takes on two-time Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka. The second semifinal sees four-time Slam semifinalist Aryna Sabalenka against Magda Linette, who had never advanced beyond the third round of a Major prior to this fortnight.
Also on Thursday, the men’s doubles semifinals will be played, starting at 1:00pm local time.
Elena Rybakina (22) vs. Victoria Azarenka (24) – 7:30pm on Rod Laver Arena
Rybakina has only dropped one set to this stage, to last year’s finalist Danielle Collins in the third round. She’s looking to defeat a third consecutive Major champion, after taking out Iga Swiatek and Jelena Ostapenko in the last two rounds. And Elena is vying for her second final out of the last three Slams.
Azarenka dropped the opening set in both her third and fourth round matches, but still won both of those rather comfortably. And in the quarterfinals, she soundly defeated World No.3 Jessica Pegula. This is Vika’s first Australian Open semifinal in 10 years, since her back-to-back titles in 2012 and 2013. Overall it’s her ninth Major semifinal, and she holds a record of 5-3 previously. Though notably, she’s 5-0 in Major semis on hard courts.
Their only previous meeting occurred last March at Indian Wells, where Rybakina prevailed 6-3, 6-4. However, at a tournament where Azarenka’s greatest success has happened, and in a round of hard court Majors where she’s been untouchable, it may be a big ask for Elena to overcome the two-time champion. But it’s clear Rybakina feels she has something to prove, as she’s spoken openly regarding feeling slighted by the lack of ranking points, and lack of respectful scheduling, she’s received for her Wimbledon victory. And these fast-playing courts in Melbourne reward her aggressive game. I give Elena the slight edge to prevail on Thursday.
Magda Linette vs. Aryna Sabalenka (5) – Last on Rod Laver Arena
Sabalenka is now a perfect 9-0 to start the year, and 18-0 in sets. As per ESPN, she is just the sixth woman to win her first four Major quarterfinals, joining the impressive company of Ann Jones, Billie Jean King, Chris Evert, Elena Dementieva, and Naomi Osaka. However, Aryna is 0-3 in Slam semifinals, having lost all three of those matches 6-4 in the third.
Linette is one of the more surprising Major semifinalists in recent memory. Prior to this event, she was just 18-29 lifetime at Slams, and 0-5 in the third round. But the veteran has now defeated four seeded players in a row (Kontaveit, Alexandrova, Garcia, Pliskova), and has only dropped one set in doing so.
Sabalenka is 2-0 against Linette, with both matches taking place on hard courts, and neither match being close. Five years ago in Tianjin, Aryna won 6-1, 6-3. Two years ago at the Tokyo Olympics, Aryna won 6-2, 6-1. But I expect Sabalenka to tighten up on Thursday, as she’s fully aware of her painful history in this round of Majors. And her double fault issues of the past resurfaced a bit during Wednesday’s quarterfinal, striking nine in total. Linette is a smart, steady player who can take advantage if Sabalenka begins to commit unforced errors, which she can often do in bunches. Despite all that, I still favor the power game of Aryna, and her improved second serve, to advance her into her first Major final.
Other Notable Matches on Thursday:
Jeremy Chardy and Fabrice Martin vs. Hugo Nys and Jan Zielinski – Chardy and Martin took out the third-seeded team of Arevalo and Rojer in the last round. Nys and Zielinski eliminated the second-seeded team of Ram and Salisbury earlier in the tournament.
Rinky Hijikata and Jason Kubler (WC) vs. Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos (8) – This is the Australian team of Hijikata and Kubler’s first event as a team, and they upset the top-seeded team of Koolhof and Skupski in the quarterfinals. Granollers and Zeballos are looking to reach their third Major final of their partnership.
Thursday’s full Order of Play is here.