On Tuesday in Melbourne, the men’s and women’s singles quarterfinals commence.
Three of the four WTA players in Tuesday’s quarterfinals are Major singles champions: Victoria Azarenka, Jelena Ostapenko, and Elena Rybakina. They are joined by the highest seed remaining in the draw, Jessica Pegula.
Tuesday’s ATP quarterfinals include no Major singles champions. This is the best result at a Major to date for 22-year-old Sebastian Korda and 21-year-old Jiri Lehecka, while Stefanos Tsitsipas and Karen Khachanov are looking to return to a Slam semifinal.
Elena Rybakina (17) vs. Jelena Ostapenko (22) – Not Before 12:30pm on Rod Laver Arena
This battle between Major champions will feature a whole lot of firepower, as these are two of the WTA’s hardest ball strikers. And both are coming off significant victories on Sunday. Rybakina took out World No.1 Iga Swiatek, while Ostapenko eliminated Coco Gauff.
Rybakina has been serving excellently, averaging seven aces and only one double fault in her last two matches against aggressive returners (Swiatek, Collins). As usual, Ostapenko has been striking tons of winners and unforced errors, but has averaged a good ratio of 34 winners to 27 errors across her last two matches. Both players have only dropped one set to this stage.
Ostapenko is 2-0 against Rybakina, and 4-0 in sets. Jelena prevailed four years ago on a hard court, as well as two years ago on grass. They also played in doubles just last week during this event, with Rybakina and her partner Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova defeating Ostapenko and her partner Lyudmyla Kichenok in straight sets.
But Elena’s game has progressed substantially since their last meeting, and she has spoken openly regarding how the lack of ranking points for her Wimbledon victory, as well as being scheduled on outer courts earlier in this event, has made her feel slighted. And with her calm demeanor, I don’t see her as a player that will be emotionally drained after taking out the World No.1 in the last round. I like Rybakina to advance to the semifinals of the 2023 Australian Open.
Karen Khachanov (18) vs. Sebastian Korda – Not Before 2:00pm on Rod Laver Arena
What a fortnight it’s been for Sebastian Korda. After ousting two-time defending finalist Daniil Medvedev in the third round, he followed that up by overcoming Hubert Hurkacz in a dramatic fifth-set tiebreak. Khachanov defeated another top American, Frances Tiafoe, before beating Yoshihito Nishioka in a bizarre fourth round contest, during which Karen won the first 14 games, and took 24 of 26 points in the second set.
These two players created quite a bizarre fourth round match of their own two years ago at Wimbledon. Khachanov eventually prevailed 10-8 in the fifth, in a fifth set that included 13 breaks of serve, and some rather ugly and nervy tennis. But their two most recent encounters went to Korda: last August in Cincinnati, and last October in Antwerp. Both were hard court matches which Sebi won in straight sets.
While a Major quarterfinal is new territory for Korda, and he won’t be the fresher player after his extended five-setter on Sunday, I expect him to play more freely coming off such a tense, anxious battle against Hurkacz. And based on the level of his tennis this fortnight, I slightly favor Sebi to achieve his first Major semifinal.
Jessica Pegula (3) vs. Victoria Azarenka (24) – 7:00pm on Rod Laver Arena
Pegula is yet to drop a set this tournament, and is 8-1 to start the season, with her only loss coming at the hands of Petra Kvitova during the United Cup. Azarenka dropped the opening set in both of her last two matches, but came back to pretty decisively win the second and third sets. She is now 6-2 in 2023.
This is Pegula’s fourth quarterfinal out of the last five Majors, and her fifth overall. However, she’s 0-4 in Slam quarterfinals to date. Jess has only secured one of nine sets in those quarterfinals, and went 0-6 in quarterfinals sets last year, though it’s worth noting all three of those 2022 quarterfinals were against the World No.1 at the time (Barty, Swiatek).
This is a sixth Australian Open quarterfinal for Azarenka, but her first since 2016. Overall at Majors, she’s lost five of her last sixth quarterfinals, dating back to 2014.
These players have split four previous meetings. But the two most relevant ones went to Pegula: two years ago at this same event, and just a few months ago on a hard court on Guadalajara. Despite Azarenka’s previous success in Melbourne, as well as Pegula’s past struggles in Major quarterfinals, I think this will be Jess’ breakthrough to a Slam semifinal.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (3) vs. Jiri Lehecka – Last on Rod Laver Arena
Tsitsipas survived a five-setter in the last round against Jannik Sinner, and is vying for his fourth semifinal in Melbourne out of the last five years. Lehecka is one of many surprises in this Australian Open men’s singles draw, as he had previously never won a match at a Major. But he’s impressed this fortnight by taking out the likes of Borna Coric, Cam Norrie, and Felix Auger-Aliassime.
A year ago, Jiri was ranked outside the top 140. Yet thanks to 42 wins at all levels last season, as well as his run here, he’ll debut inside the top 40 next week.
Their only previous meeting occurred last February on an indoor hard court in Rotterdam, where Tsitsipas prevailed in three sets. And Stefanos is a considerable favorite to prevail again on Tuesday against an inexperienced opponent at this level, and at the Major where the Greek owns more victories than any other.
Tuesday’s full Order of Play is here.