On Tuesday in Melbourne, Matteo Berrettini and Andy Murray will meet in an early round for the second consecutive Major. In New York, Berrettini defeated Murray in a tight four-setter. Can the five-time Australian Open runner-up avenge that loss against one of Netflix’s newest stars?
Tuesday’s action also sees two Slam champions, and two 2020 finalists in Australia, take on seeded opposition, as Garbine Muguruza faces Elise Mertens, and Dominic Thiem faces off against Andrey Rublev. Plus Ons Jabeur, the runner-up at the last two Slams, plays a recent Major semifinalist. And Novak Djokovic will play his first match at the Australian Open since the infamous deportation debacle of 2022, but how healthy is Djokovic after suffering a hamstring injury a week ago in Adelaide?
Each day this preview will highlight the four most intriguing matchups, while outlining the other notable matches on the schedule. Tuesday’s play will begin at 11:00am local time.
Garbine Muguruza vs. Elise Mertens (26) – 11:00am on Margaret Court Arena
Muguruza was the runner-up three years ago in Melbourne, and won the third biggest title of her career at the 2021 WTA Finals. But 2022 was a rough year for the two-time Major champion. Garbine suffered from injuries, as well as a severe loss of confidence, going just 12-17 last season. And she went 0-2 the past two weeks in Australia, including a loss to Bianca Andreescu despite being up a set and a break.
Mertens was a quarterfinalist five years ago in Melbourne, which started a streak of reaching the third round or better at 18 consecutive Majors, which was broken this past summer at the US Open. Elise also won the women’s doubles title at this event in 2021. Mertens was a modest 27-22 last season at tour level in singles, but won a hard court title in October.
Muguruza is 2-0 against Mertens, with both matches taking place on hard courts. Most recently, Garbine defeated Elise in the semifinals of the WTA 1000 event in Dubai. But based on Muguruza’s recent form, as well as Mertens’ prior success in Melbourne, I like Elise’s chances to prevail on Tuesday.
Andrey Rublev (5) vs. Dominic Thiem (WC) – 11:00am on John Cain Arena
This is a blockbuster first round encounter between two of the sport’s hardest hitters. Since winning his first Slam title at the 2020 US Open, Thiem has endured a challenging few years. He’s suffered from multiple injuries, most notably to his right wrist. Between 2021 and 2022, Dominic won just 27 matches at tour level. But he ended last season showing some signs of his previous form by reaching a Challenger final on clay, and an ATP semifinal on a hard court, where he lost to Rublev.
Andrey went 51-20 in 2022, with four titles, three of which were on hard courts. However, the quarterfinal round at Majors remains his stumbling block. Rublev is now 0-6 in the quarters at Slams, most recently losing in straight sets to Frances Tiafoe in New York.
Rublev leads their head-to-head 4-2, and 3-1 on hard courts. Thiem claimed their first two matches, back in 2017 and 2018, but Andrey has now taken the last four. While it’s dangerous to discount the chances of a former Australian Open runner-up, Rublev should be favored on this day.
Matteo Berrettini (13) vs. Andy Murray – Third on Rod Laver Arena
Berrettini was a semifinalist here a year ago, but went just 32-13 on the year. He battled multiple injuries, and COVID prevented him from playing Wimbledon, where he was one of the favorites to win the title. Matteo started this season by helping Italy advance to the final of the inaugural United Cup, though he lost his last two matches at that event to Stefanos Tsitsipas and Taylor Fritz.
Murray was only 29-20 in 2022, and spoke openly regarding his body wearing down easily in warm conditions. Unfortunately for Andy, Tuesday is forecast to be the hottest day of the week in Melbourne, and this match is scheduled during the hottest part of the day. The Brit’s run to the fourth round of this tournament six years ago is the last time he reached the second week of a Major.
Berrettini is 3-1 against Murray, and has won their last three meetings. That includes two matches from last year: the aforementioned four-set battle in New York, and the final of Stuttgart on grass. Both matches were closely-contested, and Andy is certainly eager to reassert himself as a true contender. However, Matteo is still a slight favorite to gain his fourth straight victory over the three-time Major singles champion in what I expect to be another close battle.
Tamara Zidansek vs. Ons Jabeur (2) – 7:00pm on Rod Laver Arena
Jabeur took her career to a new level last season, achieving her first two Slam finals, and accumulating a record of 47-17. She was forced to withdraw from this event in 2022 due to a back injury. Ons advanced to the semifinals of a tournament in Adelaide to begin 2023.
Zidansek was a shocking semifinalist two years ago at Roland Garros, but went only 14-19 at tour level last season, and lost her first two main draw matches this year. And Tamara has not defeated a top 20 player since her 2021 run in Paris.
This is technically their first meeting, though they’ve previously split matches played in qualifying and at an ITF-level event. Jabeur is a strong favorite to win her opening round match on Tuesday, at an event where she was a quarterfinalist three years ago.
Other Notable Matches on Tuesday:
Aryna Sabalenka (5) vs. Tereza Martincova – Sabalenka started this season with a dominant title run in Adelaide, where she didn’t drop a set. Martincova is just 4-11 in the main draw at Majors.
Leylah Fernandez vs. Alize Cornet – Fernandez is yet to regain her form after suffering a foot injury at the French Open. Cornet achieved a career milestone at this event a year ago, advancing to her first Slam quarterfinal in her 63rd attempt. Leylah is 1-0 against Alize, having defeated her in straight sets at the 2021 edition of Indian Wells.
Katherine Sebov (Q) vs. Caroline Garcia (4) – Garcia is another Frenchwoman who reached new heights in 2022, achieving her first Major semifinal, and winning the WTA Finals. Sebov is a 24-year-old Canadian ranked 191st in the world making her Slam debut.
Juan Pablo Varillas (LL) vs. Sascha Zverev (12) – Zverev went 0-2 at the United Cup in his first tournament since the terrible foot injury he suffered in the semifinals of Roland Garros. Varillas won 51 matches last season at all levels, though 49 of them were on clay.
Thanasi Kokkinakis vs. Fabio Fognini – Kokkinakis won the men’s doubles title here a year ago alongside fellow Aussie and close friend Nick Kyrgios. He reached the semifinals this past week in his hometown of Adelaide, a year after he claimed his first ATP title in the same city. Fognini had a losing record in 2022, and is 0-2 against Thanasi.
Tomas Machac vs. Casper Ruud (2) – Ruud advanced to his first two Major finals last season, and ended the year by reaching the championship match at the ATP Finals. However, he lost all three of those finals, and is 1-2 to begin 2023. Machac is a 22-year-old who won 47 matches at all levels last season, winning two Challenger titles on hard courts.
Roberto Carbellas Baena vs. Novak Djokovic (4) – Djokovic won a title in Adelaide just over a week ago, where he saved a match point in the final against Sebastian Korda. But he also injured his hamstring during that title run, and has now cut short or outright canceled multiple practices within the last few days, including on Monday evening. Novak defeated Carbellas Baena in straight sets at the 2019 US Open.
Tuesday’s full Order of Play is here.
