Wednesday’s quarterfinals are headlined by Poland’s Iga Swiatek vying for her 33rd straight win. Swiatek is now 41-3 on the year, and an undefeated 13-0 on clay. A day after celebrating her 21st birthday, Iga will play American Jessica Pegula, who is attempting to achieve her first Major semifinal. The winner will face either Daria Kasatkina or Veronika Kudermetova on Thursday.
The bottom half of the men’s singles draw plays on Wednesday, and following the exit of Stefanos Tsitsipas on Monday, it’s wide open. Either Andrey Rublev, Casper Ruud, Marin Cilic, or Holger Rune will advance to their first French Open final.
Daria Kasatkina (20) vs. Veronika Kudermetova (29) – 12:00pm on Court Philippe Chatrier
Their only previous meeting took place a year ago in their home country, when Kasatkina prevailed 1-6, 6-1, 6-2 on a hard court in St. Petersburg. Daria is the much more accomplished singles player. She owns four career titles, and this is her third Slam quarterfinal. Kudermetova only possesses one WTA title, though that did come on this surface. However, Veronika had never been beyond the third round of a Major in singles prior to this fortnight. She actually had a losing record at Slams, though she has reached the semifinals or better at three Majors in doubles. Kasatkina is the player with the more well-rounded game, with her versatility rewarded on this surface. They both had nice results on clay this season: Daria was a semifinalist in Rome, while Kudermetova was the runner-up in Istanbul. In a women’s draw that has contained plenty of surprises, this match could easily go either way. But I give the edge to the more experienced and eclectic player, which is Kasatkina.
Iga Swiatek (1) vs. Jessica Pegula (11) – Second on Court Philippe Chatrier
Swiatek was quite edgy in her three-set battle with Qinwen Zheng on Monday. The 2020 champion must be feeling a huge amount of pressure to win this title, considering the gap she has created between herself and the rest of the field this season. Meanwhile, Pegula has become one of the WTA’s most reliable performers. This is her third quarterfinal out of the last six Majors, and was a finalist on clay earlier this season in Madrid. Her ranking has been steadily climbing over the last few years, and she will debut inside the top 10 next week. But as per Tennis Abstract, Pegula is only 2-6 against the top 10 in 2022. Iga and Jess have split their two prior encounters, which both occurred on hard courts. Most recently, Swiatek was victorious in straight sets in the Miami semifinals. A similar result on this day should be expected, as long as Iga can maintain her composure.
Andrey Rublev (7) vs. Marin Cilic (20) – Third on Court Philippe Chatrier
This is a rematch from the last Major, when Cilic upset Rublev in four sets. Overall Rublev leads their head-to-head 4-2, and had taken four straight prior to January’s matchup in Melbourne. For Andrey, this is a fifth Major quarterfinal, though he’s 0-4 in this round. In those four quarterfinals, he’s failed to win a set. For Marin, this is his first Slam quarterfinal in nearly four years. It’s his 14th overall, and he holds a record of 5-8 in this round. Rublev is yet to play his best tennis during this tournament, as he’s dropped a set in each of his four matches. And he unfortunately benefitted from his opponent’s knee injury on Monday, which forced Jannik Sinner to retire. By contrast, Cilic has only lost one set to this stage, and dominated second-seeded Daniil Medvedev in the last round. The biggest factor on Wednesday will likely be experience. An 0-4 record in Major quarterfinals, and 0-12 in sets, is a lot of scar tissue to overcome. And Cilic’s level at this event has been considerably higher than Rublev’s I like Marin’s chances of reaching his first semifinal at Roland Garros.
Casper Ruud (8) vs. Holger Rune – Not Before 8:45pm on Court Philippe Chatrier
This is the Major quarterfinal debut for both players. In Ruud’s case, it feels a bit overdue, as he’s achieved much success outside the Slams. In Rune’s case, it feels a bit sudden, as coming into this event he had never won a main draw match at a Major. But this run by the teenager is not shocking, as much has been expected of him. Earlier this season, he claimed his first ATP title, which not only came on clay, but included an upset of Sascha Zverev. In this tournament, he’s already taken out both Denis Shapovalov and Stefanos Tsitsipas, and only lost one set overall. Ruud had relinquished a total of four sets, though his four-setter in the last round against Hubert Hurkacz wasn’t all that taxing, so he should feel rather fresh. Surprisingly, they’ve already played three times in their young careers. All three of those matches were on clay, and all three went to Ruud in straight sets. That includes a tight two-setter this year in Monte Carlo. I expect another tight match on Wednesday, with both players in unchartered territory, but I give the edge to Ruud. Just like the day’s other men’s singles quarterfinal, experience will be key, and Casper has participated in many more big matches than Holger. Also, we’ve seen Rune get tight at times, including when trying to close out Tsitsipas on Monday. And Holger is an unproven commodity if this match goes this distance, with an 0-1 record in five-setters.
Wednesday’s full Order of Play is here.
