On Tuesday night in Paris, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will face off for the 59th time. It’s the ATP’s most prolific rivalry of the Open Era. Of course this match should be a semifinal or final, but the French Tennis Federation’s refusal to seed the 13-time champion higher than his current ranking of No.5 leaves us with one of the biggest quarterfinals in the history of Grand Slam tennis.
In a loaded half of the draw, Tuesday’s other men’s singles quarterfinal features 19-year-old Carlos Alcaraz facing third-seeded Sascha Zverev in a rematch of the Madrid final.
WTA quarterfinal action includes a Major champion, two teenagers, and an Italian. In an all-American affair, 2017 US Open champion Sloane Stephens takes on 18-year-old Coco Gauff. And 19-year-old US Open runner-up Leylah Fernandez will do battle with fellow lefty Martina Trevisan of Italy.
Leylah Fernandez (17) vs. Martina Trevisan – 12:00pm on Court Philippe Chatrier
This is a second Major quarterfinal for both players, but only one has advanced further. Of course that’s Fernandez, who made a scintillating run to the final of last summer’s US Open. Trevisan was a surprise quarterfinalist at this same event two years ago, when she came through qualifying while ranked outside the top 150 and defeated Camila Giorgi, Coco Gauff, Maria Sakkari, and Kiki Bertens. And Martina is currently on a nine match win streak, coming off a title run the week before this tournament in Rabat, where she defeated Garbine Muguruza. Fernandez has claimed back-to-back tight three-setters against two formidable opponents: Belinda Bencic and Amanda Anisimova. In their first career meeting, Leylah is a considerable favorite. Despite Trevisan’s current form on this surface, the Canadian teenager embraces the limelight of big stages such as this. However, in another year where the women’s singles draw has seen a plethora of upsets, another seed falling would not be shocking.
Coco Gauff (18) vs. Sloane Stephens – Second on Court Philippe Chatrier
This is a rematch from the second round of the 2021 US Open, when Stephens comfortably prevailed 6-4, 6-2 in just over an hour. Even though Sloane’s biggest success came in New York, this has been her best Major. Stephens is now 32-10 lifetime at Roland Garros, and this is her eighth time into the second week. For 18-year-old Gauff, she’s in the quarterfinals for a second straight year. Neither player arrived in Paris with much momentum, yet both have found their best tennis of the season this fortnight. Coco has not dropped a set, and though Sloane had to fight her way through two three-setters to start, she soundly defeated Jil Teichmann in the last round 6-2, 6-0. On this surface, I give the edge to Stephens and her superior defense. Unlike Coco, Sloane does not have recurring second serve issues, and she of course possesses a whole lot more experience in the second week of Slams. Gauff is vying for unchartered territory by reaching her first Major semifinal.
Sascha Zverev (3) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (6) – Third on Court Philippe Chatrier
In the championship match of the Madrid Masters, Alcaraz crushed Zverev 6-3, 6-1. And that was immediately after pulling off the monumental task of taking out Nadal and Djokovic on back-to-back days, two matches that were a combined six hours in length. Sascha took their other two encounters in straight sets, both of which occurred last year on hard courts. Both players survived huge scares in the second round, each having to save match point. But in the last two rounds, neither man has relinquished a set. So is Alcaraz ready to achieve his first Major semifinal? With a record of 32-3 on the year, and 20-1 on clay, it certainly seems so. The teenager displays plenty of confidence, and thrives under pressure, while Zverev can blink in big moments. And Carlitos’ smothering mix of power, speed, and finesse will surely frustrate Sascha, especially on this surface.
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Rafael Nadal (5) – Not Before 8:45pm on Court Philippe Chatrier
It’s a battle of 41 Major singles titles in the Roland Garros quarterfinals. Nadal surpassed both Djokovic and Roger Federer this past January in Melbourne, and is three wins away from nabbing No.22. Djokovic of course wasn’t allowed to play in Australia, and is laser-focused on tying his long-time foe with No.21. History is on the line in this match.
Their rivalry began 16 years ago at this event, when Nadal was victorious after Djokovic retired down two sets. Overall, Novak leads their head-to-head 30-28. On clay, it’s 19-8 Rafa. At Majors, it’s 10-7 Rafa. And at the French Open, it’s 7-2 Rafa. The King of Clay claimed their first six matches at this tournament, which included two finals and their near five-hour semifinal in 2013 that went to 9-7 in the fifth. But the Serbian has now taken two of their last three, including last year’s semifinal, when they contested a 90-minute third set which many say is the best set of tennis ever played.
Nadal’s start to this season was simply tremendous, especially since he had not played in five months due to foot surgery. Rafa won his first 20 matches of the year, all on hard courts. However, a rib injury suffered in Indian Wells forced him to miss some of the clay court season. And his chronic foot injury again began to bother him in Rome. His five-set, over four-hour battle on Sunday against Felix Auger-Aliassime could not have done his body any good.
Djokovic missed most of the first three months of 2022 due to his vaccination status, yet has fought his way back into form throughout the clay court season. Coming off a title in Rome, Novak seems to be peaking at the right time. Djokovic has won nine consecutive matches, and has not dropped a set in any of them. He’ll be the far fresher player on Tuesday.
Nadal and his camp pushed to have this match scheduled during the day, as Rafa prefers warmer temperatures where his ball will have even more bounce to it. But the tournament did not give in to his wishes, and Tuesday’s forecasted cool temperatures will not please the 13-time champion. With his body at less than full health, this is a rare occasion where Rafa should not be considered the favorite at Roland Garros. Djokovic appears poised to earn his second straight victory over Nadal at this event, though Rafa’s astonishing record of 109-3 lifetime proves betting against him here is a risky proposition.
Tuesday’s full Order of Play is here.
