If there was any doubt ahead of this event, it is now official: Carlos Alcaraz has arrived. He is the first man to defeat Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic in the same clay tournament. The 19-year-old is the youngest-ever male finalist in Madrid, and will reach a career-high ranking of No.6 on Monday. Carlitos has now earned six consecutive top 10 wins, and will go for a seventh on Sunday.
Sascha Zverev is a two-time and defending Madrid Open champion, and is vying for this sixth career ATP 1000 title. But the 25-year-old is title-less in 2022, and has suffered some disappointing losses this season. On Saturday, he avenged his semifinal loss from Monte Carlo by defeating Stefanos Tsitsipas. On Sunday, he attempts to derail the Spanish juggernaut.
Also on Sunday, the men’s double championship will be decided, between two of 2022’s top five teams. It will be Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah (5) vs. Wesley Koolhof and Neal Skupski (7). Koolhof and Skupski lead the ATP year-to-date rankings. They own three titles, and this is their sixth final. Cabal and Farah are playing for their first title since Vienna last October.
Sascha Zverev (2) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (7) – Not Before 6:30pm on Manolo Santana Stadium
They met twice last year on hard courts, with both encounters going to Zverev in straight sets. But this season, Alcaraz has been the far more impressive player. Carlitos is now 27-3 on the year, with three titles. A win on Sunday would give him the ATP lead in match wins and titles, and place him less than 200 points behind Nadal in the year-to-date rankings.
But what will Alcaraz have left after spending six hours on court between Friday and Saturday in defeating Nadal and Djokovic? He hurt his ankle and hand against Nadal on Friday, and played Djokovic for three hours and thirty-five minutes on Saturday. Alcaraz has logged over 10 hours on court this week, three hours more than Zverev. However, while Sascha’s semifinal was nearly half as long, it was completed many hours later, and well after midnight in Madrid. So neither man will be 100% recovered ahead of Sunday’s final.
Zverev seems to be rounding into form with the help of Spain’s own Sergi Bruguera, a two-time Roland Garros champion. Bruguera twice played Carlitos’ coach, Juan Carlos Ferrero, at Masters 1000 events, and Ferrero won both of those matches. With a raucous crowd in Madrid cheering on, Ferrero’s charge will look to do the same over Bruguera’s player. Alcaraz appears fearless, and his combination of power and speed should allow him to draw errors out of Zverev, who can often get tight in big matches. Carlitos is the more in-form player, and is young enough to recover relatively well following two extremely draining matches. However, finding the mental and physical energy to earn one of the biggest wins of his career for a third day in a row is a huge ask. Zverev will certainly be the fresher player, and has fond memories of success on this court. Just as Tsitsipas defended his Masters 1000 title a few weeks ago in Monte Carlo, I expect Sascha to do the same on Sunday in Madrid.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.