Iga Swiatek has won her last 27 matches. Ons Jabeur has won her last 11 matches. They are easily the two best WTA players of the year thus far. On Sunday, in their first meeting of the season, only one of them can continue their winning streak.
Novak Djokovic is a five-time champion in Rome, and a six-time runner-up. This is his seventh final out the last eight years. He faces Stefanos Tsitsipas, in a rematch of their dramatic championship match nearly a year ago at Roland Garros.
Also on Sunday, the men’s and women’s doubles finals will be played.
Iga Swiatek (1) vs. Ons Jabeur (9) – 1:00pm on Center Court
This should be an excellent championship match, featuring the WTA’s two hottest performers, and two of the sport’s most eclectic and likeable players. Swiatek claimed their first meeting three years ago in Washington, but Jabeur took their last two (Wimbledon, Cincinnati). Their Wimbledon encounter was easily their most prominent, where Ons came from a set down on Manic Monday, winning both of the last two sets 6-1. The differences on that day were Jabeur’s superior play on break points, converting 7-of-7, compared to only 3-of-15 by Swiatek. And Ons was +7 in winners to unforced errors, while Iga was -7.
But nearly a year later, Swiatek has evolved into an even smarter, ultra-confident competitor. She is 36-3 this season, with 27 straight victories. And 22 of those 27 consecutive wins have been in straight sets. Jabeur’s 11-match win streak is quite impressive as well, though she’s required two dramatic comebacks within the last 48 hours. On Friday, she was down 6-1, 5-2 to Maria Sakkari, and two points from defeat. On Saturday, she saved match point against Daria Kasatkina, eventually prevailing 7-5 in the third.
As per the WTA, Jabeur is 21-0 this year when she wins the first set, making that set on Sunday all the more crucial. But considering how draining Jabeur’s last two matches have been, Swiatek is the favorite to defend her title, and extend her win streak to 28-0 heading into Roland Garros. That’s especially true on this surface, as these players are yet to meet on clay, which is Iga’s best surface.
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (4) – Not Before 4:00pm on Center Court
Their last meeting was the aforementioned French Open final, where Tsitsipas could not close out the match out despite winning the first two sets. That was Novak’s fifth consecutive victory over Stefanos, and third straight on clay. They also played last year in the quarterfinals of this event, when Djokovic won 7-5 in the third. And at Roland Garros two years ago, they also went the distance, with Novak winning in five. The Greek’s only two victories over Djokovic have come on hard courts: four years ago in Canada, and three years ago in Shanghai.
Tsitsipas leads the ATP this year with 31 match wins, and an impressive 14-2 record on clay. By contrast, this is only the unvaccinated Novak’s fifth tournament of the season, and he hasn’t won a title. Yet Djokovic has been the more in-form player this week, advancing to this final without dropping a set. Tsitsipas has been pushed to a decider three times this week.
But has Djokovic fully rediscovered his top form? Can he earn his first victory over a top five player since November? This will be a huge test for Novak, and will reveal just how ready he is for his French Open title defense, which begins in just a week’s time. He’s yet to be fully tested this week, and I fully expect Tsitsipas to do so. Winning this title would be a huge boost for either player heading into Paris, as it will either be Novak’s first title in six months, or Stefanos’ second Masters 1000 title on clay this season. Based on recent results, and Djokovic’s lack of play this season, I give the slight edge to the more match-tough Tsitsipas to win on Sunday.
Other Notable Matches on Sunday:
Gabriela Dabrowski and Giuliana Olmos (2) vs. Veronika Kudermetova and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova – Madrid Open champions Dabrowski and Olmos are playing for their second WTA 1000 title in as many weeks. This is Kudermetova and Pavlyuchenkova’s first tournament as a team.
Nikola Mektic and Mate Pavic (3) vs. John Isner and Diego Schwartzman – Mektic and Pavic were easily the best men’s doubles team of 2021, with nine titles. But they’re yet to win a tournament this season. Isner has already won two Masters 1000 doubles title this season with two other partners (Sock, Hurkacz).
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.
