Saturday’s women’s championship in Miami features two of the sport’s best and most likeable players, and the two women most likely to assert their dominance following the sudden retirement of Ash Barty. Iga Swiatek will become the new World No.1 on Monday, thanks to an amazing 25-3 record this year. She’s vying for her third consecutive WTA 1000 title, all within the past six weeks. Since her maiden Major title at the 2020 French Open, she’s 5-0 in finals, and she’s only dropped 16 games across 10 sets in those championship matches.
As accomplished as Naomi Osaka is, this run to the finals is quite surprising. The past year has been one of disappointment and mental anguish for the four-time Slam champ. This is Osaka’s first final since her 2021 Australian Open triumph. But this fortnight, she’s rediscovered her form, and most importantly, seems to be enjoying her time on the court. Just like Swiatek, she’s claimed her last five finals, dating back to her second Major title at the 2019 Australian.
Also on Saturday, the men’s doubles championship will be decided.
Iga Swiatek (2) vs. Naomi Osaka – 1:00pm on Stadium Court
They have only played once before, three years ago in Canada, where Osaka prevailed in straight sets. Back then, Swiatek was ranked outside the top 60, and had to qualify for that WTA 1000 event. Nowdays, Swiatek is the far more consistent and better performer. This would be her fourth WTA 1000 title in less than 12 months, and last year she was the only female player to reach the second week at all four Majors. Not only has Iga won her last 16 matches, she’s also taken her last 18 sets.
This fortnight, Osaka has played her highest level of sustained tennis in over a year, with prominent victories over the likes of Angelique Kerber, Danielle Collins, and Belinda Bencic. The Bencic win meant the most to Naomi, as she was previously 0-3 against the Olympic gold medalist, and she came back from a set down to reach her first final since February of 2021. In that semifinal, Osaka struck 18 aces, a new personal best.
So which player will extend their winning streak in finals to 6-0? How will Swiatek react to the pressure of vying for her third consecutive WTA 1000 title? And how will Osaka react to the pressure of her first final in 14 months, especially after such an emotionally-draining year? Both women have proven themselves to be remarkably clutch performers in their careers, so I’m not convinced the pressure will get to either of them. Osaka will need to serve well as she did on Thursday, getting a lot of free points and holding easily. And her groundstrokes have been punishing all tournament. As Ravi Ubha highlighted in Twitter, Osaka has hit 161 winners and only 63 unforced errors this fortnight. But maintaining those levels against the aggression, variety, and speed Swiatek possesses will be challenging. Based on the incredibly high level Iga has been playing this season, I like her chances to become the 2022 Miami Open champion.
Wesley Koolhof and Neal Skupski (6) vs. Hubert Hurkacz and John Isner (WC) – Not Before 3:30pm on Stadium Court
Koolhof and Skupski have been the winningest men’s doubles team this season, and would move to No.1 in the ATP Race with a win on Saturday. Hurkacz was prevented from defending his singles title on Friday evening by Carlos Alcaraz. Isner is going for the “sunshine double” in doubles after winning Indian Wells alongside Jack Sock.
Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.