Last month, Daniil Medvedev overtook Novak Djokovic as the World No.1, only to lose that distinction three weeks later after Indian Wells. On Thursday, Medvedev can recapture the top spot with a victory, though the defending champion, Hubert Hurkacz, stands in his way.
Thursday will also see both women’s semifinals decided. A red-hot Naomi Osaka tries to overcome Olympic gold medalist Belinda Bencic, who is 3-0 against Osaka. And the soon-to-be World No.1 Iga Swiatek faces Jessica Pegula, who claimed their only previous encounter.
The day’s other men’s quarterfinal features the ATP’s youth movement, as 18-year-old Carlos Alcaraz faces 22-year-old Miomir Kecmanovic. And the men’s doubles semifinals will be played as well.
Each day, this preview will analyze the two most intriguing matchups, while highlighting other notable matches on the schedule. Thursday’s singles quarterfinals get underway at 1:00pm local time.
Daniil Medvedev (1) vs. Hubert Hurkacz (8) – 1:00pm on Stadium Court
These players have met three times, all since July of last year. At Wimbledon, in a match stretched across two days, Hurkacz came back from a 2-1 set deficit to win in five. Later that summer in Canada, Medevdev prevailed in a third-set tiebreak. And at the ATP Finals, they again went the distance, with Medvedev taking the third set 6-4. I expect another prolonged battle on Thursday. Of course Medvedev is almost always the favorite on a hard court, and he has not dropped a set this fortnight. Hurkacz has, though he’s played very well considering this is the first time in his career he is defending a four-figure number of points. The two deciding factors may be just how big Hurkacz serves on the day, and how Medvedev reacts to the pressure of knowing the No.1 ranking is again within his grasp. But on this surface, it’s hard not to give Medvedev the edge.
Belinda Bencic (22) vs. Naomi Osaka – Not Before 3:00pm on Stadium Court
These players have also met three times, with Bencic victorious on all three occasions. All those matches took place in 2019: at Indian Wells, Madrid, and the US Open. Madrid is the outlier as that was on clay, and it was the only contest that went to three sets. In their two previous US meetings, both on hard courts, Bencic prevailed in straight sets, and spoiled titles defenses for Naomi in both cases. On Tennis Channel, Chanda Rubin expertly highlighted how Bencic can absorb the pace of Osaka’s ball, and redirect it to put Naomi on her heels. This is reminiscent of how Belinda’s Swiss predecessor, Martina Hingis, found success against the powerful hitters of her time. Neither woman has dropped a set to this stage, though it’s worth noting Bencic is yet to face a top 50 player. Osaka earned dominant victories over the likes of Angelique Kerber and Danielle Collins. It seems the fire is back in Naomi’s game, and she’s 6-1 in her last seven semifinals. I like Osaka’s chances to turn this rivalry around, and earn her first victory over Bencic.
Other Notable Matches on Thursday:
Carlos Alcaraz (14) vs. Miomir Kecmanovic – Alcaraz was simply stunning in his straight-set victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas on Tuesday, and is now 15-2 on the year. On the same day, Kecmanovic came back from a set down to take out Indian Wells champ Taylor Fritz, and is now an impressive 17-6 in 2022. This is their first of what will likely be many career meetings.
Iga Swiatek (2) vs. Jessica Pegula (16) – Swiatek is 24-3 this year, and is on a 15-match win streak, as she vies for her third consecutive WTA 1000 title. But she’s 0-1 against Pegula, who defeated her three years ago in Washington on the way to Jessica’s only WTA title to date.
Wesley Koolhof and Neal Skupski (6) vs. Simone Bolelli and Fabio Fognini – Koolhof and Skupski are yet to drop a set, and already own three titles this season. Earlier this month in Indian Wells, they defeated the Italians 6-4, 6-4.
Thanasi Kokkinakis and Nick Kyrgios (WC) vs. Hubert Hurkacz and John Isner (WC) – Hurkacz will be pulling double duty on Thursday. The Australians won their first Major earlier this year in their home country, but lost to Isner and another partner, Jack Sock, in Indian Wells.
Thursday’s full Order of Play is here.