20-year-old Iga Swiatek has won four titles in her young career. The first was her 2020 Roland Garros triumph, and the most recent two are WTA 1000 titles, both of which she procured within the past year. On Sunday, she vies for her third WTA 1000 title, and her second in a row.
26-year-old Maria Sakkari only has one title in her career, from a smaller event in 2019. She’s 1-3 lifetime in finals, and prior to this fortnight, was a meek 4-14 in semifinals. But after eliminating defending champion Paula Badosa in Friday’s semifinals, Sakkari has reached the biggest final of her career.
In 2017, 35-year-old Roger Federer returned from a significant injury layoff to win 20 of his first 21 matches, which included titles at the Australian Open and Indian Wells. Five years later, 35-year-old Rafael Nadal is looking to top that feat. After a five-month injury layoff, he acquired titles in Melbourne and Acapulco, and is undefeated to start 2022. Nadal would extend his winning streak to 21 with a victory on Sunday.
24-year-old Taylor Fritz is a California native, and he has exceled at his state’s biggest tournament. This was the site of his first appearances at many stages of Masters 1000 events: the third round, fourth round, and just last October, the semifinals. After surviving two third-set tiebreaks this fortnight, the American is playing for his second ATP title.
Iga Swiatek (3) vs. Maria Sakkari (6) – 1:00pm on Stadium 1
This will be their fifth meeting, all of which have occurred since May of last year. Most recently, they played in the semifinals of February’s WTA 1000 event in Doha. Swiatek prevailed, and went on to win the tournament. That’s part of her current 10-match win streak, as she leads the WTA with 19 wins this season. For Sakkari, it was yet another loss in a semifinal, her ninth since the beginning of 2020. But that’s the only time Maria has lost to Iga. The Greek claimed their encounters last year at Roland Garros, Ostrava, and the WTA Finals. All four times they’ve played, the match has been decided in straight sets. Despite their head-to-head, Swiatek is a considerable favorite in Sunday’s final. She carries significant momentum into this match, and possesses a far superior record in the latter stages of tournaments over Sakkari, as Maria’s nerves have often impacted her play in these moments.
Rafael Nadal (4) vs. Taylor Fritz (20) – Not Before 3:00pm on Stadium 1
Their only previous matchup was also a North American final. Two years ago in Acapulco, Nadal defeated Fritz 6-3, 6-2. It’s difficult to not favor Rafa to prevail again on Sunday, but the 21-time Major champion must be feeling pretty depleted after an over three-hour epic with Carlos Alcaraz just 24 hours prior. Not only did Fritz play earlier in the day, allowing him more time to recover, but he spent less than two hours on court. That’s not even to mention the foot injury Nadal has been battling, or the apparent pectoral injury he suffered during Saturday’s semifinal. And as much as the crowd adores Rafa, the American audience will surely be soundly behind their own player. I expect Fritz to make this a tight affair, but a confident Nadal is extremely tough to overcome. Rafa has won his last eight finals, and 23 of his last 26. And he hasn’t lost a final to man not named Federer or Djokovic in over five years. If Nadal does win on Sunday, he will tie Novak Djokovic with 37 Masters 1000 titles, the most all-time.
