Daniil Medvedev is the defending champion of the ATP Finals, and currently on a nine-match win streak at this event. Clay and grass remain off-putting surfaces for the Russian, but he is a sensational 46-7 on hard courts in 2021. His year was highlighted by reaching his second Major final in Melbourne, then winning his first Major in New York. Now he looks to become the first man to defend this title since Novak Djokovic in 2015.
Sascha Zverev won this tournament in 2018. While that is still his biggest ATP title to date, some would argue his Olympic gold medal from this past summer in Tokyo was more important. Sascha’s 2021 hard court record of 40-9 approaches that of Medvedev, and unlike Daniil, the German is undefeated this year in finals on all surfaces (5-0). He has claimed 31 of his last 35 matches, though half of those losses have come against Medvedev.
Sunday’s play gets underway at 2:30pm local time with the doubles championship match. It will be Rajeev Ram and Joe Salisbury (2) vs. Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Nicolas Mahut (3). Ram and Salisbury won this year’s US Open, while Herbert and Mahut won Roland Garros. These teams just played four days prior in the round robin stage. After splitting the first two sets, Ram and Salisbury prevailed in a prolonged and thrilling 10-point tiebreak by the score of 13-11.
Daniil Medvedev (2) vs. Sascha Zverev (3) – Not Before 5:00pm
Medvedev leads their head-to-head 6-5, and they’ve never met outside of a hard court. This will be their third match in as many weeks. In the semifinals of Bercy, Medvedev won comfortably 6-2, 6-2. But earlier this week in round robin play, their matchup was extremely tight, with Medvedev escaping 8-6 in a third set tiebreak. That was one of two matches this past week where Daniil allowed the crowd to irritate him, with his behavior helping to turn them against him.
Zverev dominated this rivalry to start, taking their first four encounters. They split the next two, but it’s now been all Medvedev, who has claimed the last five. Daniil certainly had the much less taxing semifinal, spending over an hour less on court in dispatching Casper Ruud than Sascha did in overcoming Novak Djokovic. But despite that, as well as their recent history, it would seem Zverev is due for a win over Medvedev. The extremely quick court in Turin has empowered Sascha’s serve. He’s struck 53 aces and just four double faults through four matches, and has only been broken two times. Medvedev has seemed on the brink of self-destruction at several points during this event, and in recent years, this title has proven quite challenging to defend. Zverev’s perfect record in 2021 finals may prove to be one of the most significant factors on Sunday, and why I like his chances of becoming a two-time ATP Finals champion.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.
