48 hours after ending Novak Djokovic’s bid for a Golden Slam, a feat only achieved by German Steffi Graf, Sascha Zverev looks to win another gold medal for Germany. But a big-hitting Russian stands in his way, one who owns a winning record against Zverev on hard courts.
The last day of tennis in Tokyo will also host two gold medal matches in doubles. In women’s doubles, Barbora Krejcikova and Katerina Siniakova have won three Majors, and now go for a gold medal against Switzerland’s Belinda Bencic and Viktorija Golubic. For Bencic, it’s an opportunity to win a second gold medal in as many days.
In addition, a pair of teams representing the Russian Olympic Committee will face off for gold in mixed doubles. Will Elena Vesnina be able to recover from a devastating loss in Saturday’s women’s doubles bronze medal match? Vesnina and Veronika Kudermetova held four match points, only to lose the last six points of the match and fail to reach the podium.
Sunday’s play gets underway at 3:00pm local time.
Sascha Zverev (4) [GER] vs. Karen Khachanov (12) [ROC] – Second on Centre Court
Overall they have split four previous encounters, but Khachanov leads 2-1 on this surface, which includes their two most recent meetings. And neither of those have been close. At the 2018 Paris Masters, it was 6-1, 6-2. At the 2019 Rogers Cup, it was 6-3, 6-3. The event in Paris was the biggest title run of the Russian’s career, and a week where he also defeated Dominic Thiem and Novak Djokovic. However, he hasn’t won a title, or even reached a final, ever since. And prior to his run to the quarterfinals of Wimbledon, Khachanov was only 16-14 on the year. But it is worth noting he’s 4-0 lifetime in ATP finals, with his other three victories coming at 250-level events.
Zverev is certainly the far more accomplished player. He owns 15 career titles, which includes four Masters events, as well as the 2018 ATP Finals. And he’s reached the semifinals or better at Majors three times, something Khachanov is yet to achieve. Though I do wonder just how much scar tissue was created by his loss in the final of last year’s US Open, where he was up two sets before eventually losing in a fifth-set tiebreak. Both he and Dominic Thiem played a considerably nervy match, and this will be Zverev’s first best-of-five final since that painful loss.
And that could be a significant factor on this day: the men’s singles gold medal final is the only match at the Olympics that is best-of-five. Zverev possesses a much stronger record in best-of-five, and a far superior record in five-setters. As per Tennis Abstract, Sascha is 16-9 in fifth sets, compared to Karen’s record of 6-7. And Khachanov’s two most recent five-set wins were not pretty. A few weeks ago in the fourth round of Wimbledon, against Sebastian Korda, 13 out of the 18 games in the fifth set were breaks of serve. And last summer at the US Open, he was only able to come back from two sets down thanks to the cramping of Jannik Sinner.
So who is the favorite to win gold? Their head-to-head favors Khachanov, while recent form and best-of-five experience favors Zverev. And the German has been serving excellently throughout this tournament, striking 40 aces and only three doubles, especially impressive for a player who has suffered from double fault issues in the recent past. However, Zverev had a much easier road to this final than Khachanov. Other than Djokovic, Sascha faced no one ranked inside the top 40, while Karen beat three top 30 players. The Olympics are an event which often produces surprising tennis results. And these are two men who are known to get tight in big matches. But considering the way Zverev has been serving, and the confidence boost his upset of Djokovic should provide, I give Sascha the slight edge to become an Olympic champion.
Other Notable Matches on Sunday:
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Andrey Rublev (4) [ROC] vs. Elena Vesnina and Aslan Karatsev [ROC] – Vesnina not only lost a heartbreaker on Saturday, she and Kudermetova also served for the championship a few weeks ago at Wimbledon, before losing 9-7 in the third. And Vesnina and Karatsev were defeated in the mixed doubles final at Roland Garros, the same event where Pavlyuchenkvoa lost in the women’s singles final. Who will realize redemption on Sunday?
Barbora Krejcikova and Katerina Siniakova (1) [CZE] vs. Belinda Bencic and Viktorija Golubic – The Czechs are of course the favorites, with three Major titles as a team. The Swiss are a new team formed exclusively for this event. But don’t count them out, especially with Bencic coming off a gold medal victory in singles on Saturday evening.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.
